Donegal v Monaghan 2016 Ulster

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Team	Possessions	Attacks	Shots	Scores	Exp Pts
Donegal	44	39	27	1 – 11	16.86
Monaghan	47	37	26	0 – 14	15.14

At a macro level the returns for both teams are very similar with just three possessions, 2 attacks & 1 shot separating them. Nothing untoward or unexpected given the recent history of these two teams. What did differ however was just how bad Donegal’s shooting was. It was much more erratic than Monaghan’s evidenced by the low conversion rate of 44% and leaving >2.5 points behind them.

Donegal managed to create three good goal opportunities through Gillespie, McBrearty and MacNiallais. Those goal attempts returned an Expt Pts tally of +0.43. Given this was a positive, and the overall return was a negative then Donegal’s point taking is shown up as poor, bordering on feeble. Donegal scored 0-10 from 24 point attempts (42% conversion rate) with a combined Expt Pts of -3.29. Their shooting from play was below average (38% with an Expt Pts of -0.62) but not terrible – it was their free taking that really let them down.

Before we turn to Donegal’s deadballs we need to touch on Monaghan. They will be very concerned with their last quarter as, after the red card in the ~55th minute, they only managed to create two shots more than Donegal and more worryingly they only created the one shot from play in those final 20 minutes.

Deadballs
McManus was outstanding from frees converting 78% (7 from 9) with an Expt Pts tally of +0.93. The raw numbers do not do justice to his performance however as his 6th and 7th points were both converted from outside the 45, in injury time, whilst one of the misses was basically on the 20m flag from the right with the right foot.

Possibly of more importance for Monaghan, looking towards the replay, was the 33% conversion rate of the supporting cast. Monaghan rely on deadballs more than any team so to see K Hughes & R Beggan miss their only free – both from the right as was one of McManus’s misses – will be of slight concern to Malachy O’Rourke and his management team.

Whatever concerns Monaghan may have in this area will pale into insignificance compared with those of Donegal. McBrearty & Murphy were 45% from 11 attempts and had a combined Expt Pts of –2.53. In such a tight encounter you cannot leave that many points behind you.

On raw returns McBrearty would escape much of the blame scoring 0-03 from his four attempts however the one he missed was on the top of the D and should be converted 70-80% of the time.

Murphy was very poor scoring 0-02 from 7 attempts. There are mitigating circumstances in that two of his misses were outside the 45m line whilst a third was just inside the 45 from wide on the left. Even if you were to be generous, and exclude these three attempts, his returns were 0-02 from four with an Expt Pts tally of -0.67. Include them and the Expt Pts tally rises to -2.12.

We know Murphy is better than that. History has shown us that he is an above average deadball striker. Donegal will need him to (re)find his accuracy in the replay.

Kickouts
Much was made of the kickouts – especially Donegal’s – at half time in the Sky coverage. The gist being that the fact they had lost 4 of their 12 first half kickouts (whereas Monaghan lost just one of their nine) showed a poor kickout strategy.

At the time I was a bit dismissive of this as Donegal had netted 0 – 03 (Donegal scored 0-04 from the 8 they won whilst Monaghan scored 0-01 from the 4 they won) from their own kickouts whilst Monaghan had scored 0-01. However when we look at shots created from kickout possessions it was level at 5 apiece at half time. Extend that out to the 70mins and Monaghan created 10 shots from the kickouts they won to Donegal’s 7.

The loss of Durcan does appear to have robbed Donegal of some of their subtlety on kickouts and what is easily decipherable can also be easily targeted.

The Goal
Finally a quick note on the goal. Donegal had just gone down to 14 men and this was the first Donegal possession after this. Timely indeed but given the game situation it was surprising to see MacNiallais in acres of space in front of goal.
 

 
As can be seen above MacNiallais got a helping hand to create this space. Fintan Kelly (18) was marking MacNiallais (9) whilst Gillespie was also being man marked. MacNiallais got free however as Gillespie managed to step across Kelly and “help” him to the ground thus freeing MacNiallais up and giving himself a yard on his marker to receive the ball.

As Ciaran McMonagle (@CiaranMcMonagle – a good follow) said on Twitter “illegal but clever”

Appendix

Shot Charts

Donegal’s shooting

Monaghan’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half, red = goal attempt

Monaghan v Down 2016 Ulster

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Team	Possessions	Attacks	Shots	Scores	Exp Pts
Monaghan	51	44	37	2 – 22	22.35
Down	40	28	20	0 – 09	11.23

The overall numbers are placed here out of habit. There is next to nothing that can be gleaned from this game as a whole given Down’s capitulation from the 30th minute onwards. In that period they

* went ~40 minutes with one shot from play
* created one turnover in that time
* went ~16 minutes without controlling the ball inside Monaghan’s 45

The corollary of such an anaemic performance is how much stock can we place in Monaghan’s performance? For them it was the ultimate game of two halves

	Possessions	Attacks	Shots	Scores	Exp Pts
1st half	22	19	14	0 – 09	8.66
2nd half	29	25	23	2 – 13	13.69

Monaghan were struggling early on but that struggle was not evident in their shooting. They scored 0 – 09 from 14 shots (Expt Pts 8.66) in the 1st half. Given the high conversion rate (64%) it is somewhat surprising to see that they only just outperformed their Expt Pts. This was a function of how careful they were with their shooting; only one attempt from play was from more than 25 metres out whilst all bar one of their frees were close to the 20m line. Their shooting range increased in the second half but why so conservative when the game was there to be won?

There appeared nothing claustrophobic about Down’s defending during that opening half an hour. Instead it appeared to be a reticence on Monaghan’s part. A safety first policy of ensuring the shot was on before pulling the trigger. Opening game rust? That old chestnut about how Monaghan are shorn of an attacking threat without McManus? He looked slightly off the boil here with his first touch coming in the 16th minute and his only scores from play coming in the second half when the game was done.

Monaghan Deadballs

Whilst their shooting from play may have been rusty their deadball striking was excellent. 0 – 10 scored from 13 attempts (77% Conversion Rate) with an Expt Pts of 8.01. Teams need to realise just how much of a weapon this is for Monaghan both in an attacking sense and also in keeping them in games when they are not going so well. Here they had five shots from the 18th to the 33rd minute however were able to keep the scoreboard ticking over as four of them were frees. They of course converted all four.

Appendix

Shot Charts

Monaghan’s shooting

Down’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half, red = goal attempt

 

Players with >= 3 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Exp Pts
K Hughes (Monaghan)	4	1 – 02	75%	3.05
C McManus (Monagha)	4	0 – 02	50%	1.55
D McKenna (Monaghan)	3	0 – 02	67%	1.35

Expected Wins; how teams fared versus their odds

Once September rolls around only one or two teams will deem their year as being successful. In 2015 Dublin had a year of years winning the league, Leinster and the All Ireland (do we throw in the O’Byrne cup?). Monaghan winning Ulster made for a successful season whilst there is an honourable mention for Fermanagh with promotion to Division2 and the quarter final appearance. But what about the rest?

If the league is a means to an end for the majority, and the All Ireland and Provincial championships are regularly shared by the same teams, how do we measure the remainder’s performance? Or indeed how do we judge a team like Tyrone that got relegated, fell short in Ulster but rallied to get to the All Ireland semi-final? One way is to compare a team’s results against how bookmaker’s thought they should fare.

Bookmakers give odds on all games. The main markets are match odds and handicap. Any bookmaker worth their salt will tell you that though all odds can be converted into a percentage chance of winning this is not their primary aim when setting the line. They are not trying to exactly predict the likelihood of an outcome but rather set a line that will encourage multi way action on the game. This then enables them to have relatively evenly split betting on all outcomes and they can take the built in margin.

Still these lines are a very good proxy for how a team is expected to perform and the cumulative odds can thus be used to extract just how many games a team won above, or below, what was expected. Thus we create an Expected Wins (Exp Wins) metric.

Expected Wins

All odds for a game were converted to an Exp Win (see methodology in Note2 below) and then teams ranked according to how many wins they obtained in the League & Championship above this mark

It comes as no surprise that seven of the top ten teams in pure win percentage appear in the top ten based on Exp Wins. Fermanagh and Monaghan are up there given their aforementioned successful seasons. Longford also had a good year winning 9 of their 13 games. In fact on pure winning percentage they finished second in the country behind Dublin’s 75%.

But what of the remainder? The biggest surprise by far was Limerick. They only won three games in total, ranking them in the bottom third on pure wins alone, but were 7th when compared to their Exp Wins. How so?

They were the outsider in all seven of their league games but won three. From those seven games the bookmakers expected them to win 1.87. They outperformed their expected wins by more than a full game. In the Championship they lost by two points away to Clare in a game that had Clare favoured by two and then walked into Tyrone in the first round of the back door. The positive Exp Win total they accumulated in the league was not too badly dented by these two losses – especially the Tyrone one where they were huge outsiders.

Sligo were a bit of a surprise given that they only won four games but again they were quite large underdogs when beating Roscommon in the Championship and complete outsiders in the next two games against Tyrone & Mayo. Given the very low combined Exp Wins from those three games (0.39) that one victory against Roscommon puts them in positive territory for the Championship alone.

Against the Spread

Another way of tracking a team’s performance is to see if they covered the bookmaker’s handicap; or what their ATS (against the spread) was in American parlance. We would expect some cross over with the best performers in the Expected Win list but crucially you don’t have to win a game to beat this performance metric – only play above an expected standard

Again six of the teams that appeared in the Exp Wins top ten re-appear. A number of the teams, such as Limerick, Sligo, Fermanagh & Monaghan we have touched upon previously but there are a few surprises. Mayo, despite being a very high profile team, would have been a profitable one to follow on the handicap. Cork, for all the negativity following the losses to Kerry & Kildare, were also profitable but it is London & Leitrim that jump out. Between them they won four games all season but it could be argued they had a pretty good year; their performance exceeded expectations in 12 of their combined 18 games.

London only won one of their nine games all year but managed to cover the handicap on six occasions. Narrow that further and they covered the handicap in five of their seven league games including all three that they played away. You would never state that London had a good season but from a performance perspective we should probably cut them some slack. They performed well above expectation.

Worst Performances

Originally the above table was going to be the bottom five but I expanded it to catch two of the bigger fish.

Some of the lower lights – Carlow, Wicklow & Waterford – being down here is not really a surprise given just how few games they won. However it does indicate that perhaps the bookmakers were generally over rating them despite their poor form.

Laois were particularly poor but looking purely at their Championship form they beat Carlow when their Exp Win was 0.86 so get very little credit for that and then had a further three games failing to win any of them when the combined Exp Win was 1.75.

Given they were relegated from Division 1 with just the one win from seven it is perhaps no surprise to see Tyrone down here.

Kerry won seven games throughout the year but were expected to win eight. Creating a league/Championship split Kerry had an Expected win of -0.81 in the league and -0.19 in the Championship. Their Championship was slightly less underwhelming than their league (I kid – sort of!)

Three of those that appeared in the worst Exp Win table re-appear when we look at the worst performances against the handicap. Wicklow and Waterford not only failed to win enough games but also played poorly in their losses covering a combined four handicaps over 18 games. Given that they won seven games but were only an outsider once during the year – and that a slight outsider in the final against Dublin – it is no surprise that Kerry are again represented.

They had, all told, a good year but were consistently over valued by the bookmakers. Or conversely the bookmakers kept their odds short as the public’s perception of Kerry was that they were performing better than they actually were.

APPENDIX

Note 1; there can be quite a difference in bookmaker’s odds. The odds used for this piece were taken primarily from Paddy Power rather than taking the best prices available across all bookmakers. The main reason for this was laziness on my part as it meant just one source rather than hopping around sites.

When you take the price can also be important. Lines do move. However they were generally taken on Saturday or Sunday morning when any early moves had been accounted for.

Note2; generally speaking the margin on GAA match odds is 109% with lesser games getting up to 112%. A typical line in a close game would be 10/11 (home team), 15/2 (draw) & 6/5 (away team) which equals a book of 109.6%. To make this, and all games, come in at 100% – and remove the bookmaker’s margin – I extracted 3% from each outcome. There is a valid argument that this should be more nuanced (take less off the draw perhaps) but for now it’s fine.

The home team has a 52.4% chance of winning on the odds. We know this is inflated to account for the bookmaker’s margin. Take 3% away from each of the three outcomes to account for this and the home team now has a 49.4% chance of winning. So using the above quoted odds we get an Exp win of 0.49 for the home team (priced at 10/11) and 0.42 for the away team (priced at 6/5).

Do this for all games for a particular team and you have created an Expected Wins metric.

Monaghan V Tyrone 2015 All Ireland QF

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Attacks	Attack %	Shots	Shot %	Scores	Success %	Weighting
Monaghan	46	38	83%	27	71%	14	52%	+1.466
Tyrone	43	37	86%	30	81%	18	60%	+1.643
Avg		37.0		28.7	77.7%	14.7	51.2%

The above table is a little quirky. Tyrone’s shooting accuracy was excellent at 60% but their weighting – as judged against Monaghan’s returns – does not reflect this. Normally I introduce the shot charts at the bottom of the piece but it is instructive to look at Monaghan’s at this juncture.

What immediately jumps out is how clean the two central – and thus high scoring – areas are. From the arc of the D in to the square Monaghan only attempted one shot from play – and that was the last minute goal attempt from McManus. Monaghan’s weighting is as good as Tyrone’s despite the lower Success Rate because they were trying shots that were a lot harder.

Part of this was due, undoubtedly, to Monaghan’s methodical build up play which allowed Tyrone to block up the middle. But a great amount of credit must go to Tyrone’s defensive structure & effort on the day. If they keep their central channels as clean against Kerry they will believe they are well on their way.

Further to the disparity in the weighting the below chart shows, were the game to be played 20,000 times with the same shots taken, how often Tyrone would win – 74% of the time. In the context of the shots taken throughout the game Monaghan never had a chance.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
Monaghan	18	8	44%	+1.105
Tyrone	22	10	45%	+0.070
Avgs	21.4	9.7	45.3%

Initially I believed the discrepancy in shot accuracy & weighting would be entirely down to the types of deadballs attempted – Monaghan trying long range & Tyrone having shots closer in to goal. There was evidence of this but the logic flowed through to the attempts from play as well.

Both teams had a Success Rate of 45% but Monaghan scored 1 point more than expected – again the accuracy was there but the volume, and shot location, meant that they were relying on individuals to produce excellent long range displays. Some did (Duffy & McManus) but the majority did not.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
C McAliskey (Tyrone)	4	4	100%	0.787
D McCurry (Tyrone)	4	4	100%	+0.786
C McManus (Monaghan)	6	5	83%	0.944
R Beggan (Monaghan)	2	0	0%	-0.763
P Finlay (Monaghan)	1	1	100%	0.180
team avgs	7.2	4.9	68.7%

Very good striking from Tyrone with McCurry & McAliskey converting 8 from 8. Whilst the majority were definitely of the more “gettable” variety the combined weighting of +1.57 indicates that the expected return from these 8 frees was 6.5 points; they converted all the ones they should have and then also scored from a 45 and one tough one out right on the 20m line.

From their 9 attempts Monaghan would have been expected to return 5.7 points. Their attempts were much harder than Tyrone’s but given their usual excellence they will not be happy with basically average returns – especially Beggan who dropped both his long range efforts short.

One of the hidden value adds of players are frees they win inside the opposition’s 45 which lead to more productive shots for other players. Séan Cavanagh only had one shot all day however he won three of the frees that Tyrone converted. Similarly Mattie Donnelly’s runs earned two scores from frees (though given the commentary around this game Cavanagh’s free winning ability is more front and centre than is the norm!)

Kickouts

Monaghan’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into an attack	%	Shot	%
Monaghan	22	96%	18	82%	11	50%
Tyrone	1	4%	1	100%	1	100%
Tyrone’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into an attack	%	Shot	%
Monaghan	6	30%	5	83%	3	50%
Tyrone	14	70%	12	86%	10	71%

Monaghan won a quite ridiculous 22 of their own 23 kickouts. This was aided of course by the fact that they went short on 68% of their kickouts (that the TV cameras caught). Monaghan scored 0-06 on their 22 wins but also gave up a point on the one they lost (a horrible short one down the middle). A net gain of 0.22pts per kickout

The TV cameras missed quite a few of where the Tyrone kickouts landed so we can’t make too many absolute statements on length. However they gained possession on 14 of their 20 kickouts scoring 0-09 and allowing 0-02 – a net gain 0.35pts per kickout.

In terms of the kickout battle you have to say that Tyrone won despite the macro level results showing that Monaghan won 65% of all kickouts.

One further point to note was how Tyrone were able to move the ball on their kickouts when they absolutely had to. Thrice in the second half Monaghan scored inspirational long range points (Duffy x2 & McManus) only for Tyrone to take the subsequent kickout and score a point from the possession won. Absolute momentum killers.

Turnovers

Team giving up the ball	Pass	In the Tackle	Shot	Other
Monaghan	12	6	5	1
Tyrone	5	4	3	4

The possession led nature of the game is reflected in the low turnover volumes. Tyrone in particular were excellent at retaining possession; in the second half they only coughed up the ball seven times.

Shot Charts

Tyrone’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play,

Players with >= 3 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
D McCurry (Tyrone)	5	2	40%	-0.138
Mattie Donnelly (Tyrone)	5	2	40%	-0.564
O Duffy (Monaghan)	4	2	50%	+0.258
C McManus (Monaghan)	3	2	67%	+0.869
D Mone (Monaghan)	3	1	33%	+0.031
C McAliskey (Tyrone)	3	1	33%	-0.193
P Harte (Tyrone)	3	1	33%	-0.193

Cavan V Monaghan 2015 Ulster Championship

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Attacks	Attack %	Shots	Shot %	Scores	Success %	Weighting
Cavan	49	34	69%	25	74%	15	60%	+0.741
Monaghan	43	35	81%	24	69%	16	67%	+2.306
Avg		37.0		28.7	77.7%	14.7	51.2%

Cavan had every opportunity to take this game. They had more six more possessions and one more shot than Monaghan. Their shooting didn’t let them down as it was above average – it was just that Monaghan’s shooting was deadly accurate. Especially from frees.

Indeed if we just look at the expected return from the shots that both teams attempted, and run 20,000 simulations of same, Cavan win the game 45% of the time with Monaghan 43% and a draw 12%.

That first line “six more possessions and one more shot” does indicate that Cavan had problems converting primary ball into an attack (and a subsequent shot). Converting 69% of your ball into an attack (possession inside the opposition’s 45) is low. This is due in the main to the way that Cavan played launching long balls in to Argue.

In and of itself that is fine but it does mean you have to maximise your opportunities (as there will generally be less of them). And get a goal. Cavan didn’t manage one attempt on goal. There were instances where a break could have fallen their way but that’s the gamble you take with the long ball strategy.

Monaghan? On the whole they’ll be pleased. They went away from home and came away with a win. Job done. Move on. But their reliance on deadballs, and specific individuals, hasn’t moved on from the last two years. Remember how Dublin attacked them down the left when Walshe went off in last year’s QF? If a team is disciplined can they manufacture the chances from play? Can they chase a game with no great goal threat?

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
Cavan	15	8	53%	+0.471
Monaghan	13	7	54%	+1.056
Avgs	21.4	9.7	45.3%

Monaghan’s accuracy was very good but their volume of shots from play would be a worry. Yes this was in part due to Cavan fouling however they only managed three shots from play in the first half and all from the top left (see shot chart below). That’s very poor.

They managed a much healthier ten shots in the second half and converted some absolute stunners (Dessie Mone hanging one on the wind from the left and McManus from a tight angle top of the right being another) but their lack of firepower (McManus aside) can be exploited if a defence is disciplined.

Monaghan only managed one shot on goal – Hughes’ pile driver over the bar – which is a recurrent theme. In their five Championship games last year they managed eight attempts at goal with two of those being long range shots from outside the 20m line. I took two snapshots when the camera panned back showing the huge open spaces in front of the opposition’s goal – it’s no wonder they are not prolific on the goal front!

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
C McManus (Monaghan)	5	5	100%	+1.448
N McDermott (Cavan)	4	4	100%	+0.885
P Finlay (Monaghan)	3	3	100%	+0.291
R Galligan (Cavan)	3	1	33%	-0.442
R Beggan (Monaghan)	2	0	0%	-0.669
K Hughes (Monaghan)	1	1	100%	+0.180
M Dunne (Cavan)	1	1	100%	+0.163
C Mackay (Cavan)	1	1	100%	+0.064
M Reilly (Cavan)	1	0	0%	-0.400
team avgs	7.2	4.9	68.7%

21 shots from deadballs is a lot. It places this game second only to the Meath – Tyrone game in 2013 which had a combined 23.

McManus (5 from 5) and McDermott (4 from 4) were the main protagonists converting all of their attempts however the weighting shows that McManus’s conversions were of the more difficult type.

During the off season we showed that McManus’s conversion rate was second only to Cillian O’Connor over the previous three years. It would appear he will challenge O’Connor for the top marksman accolades this year – his free from the left on the 20m line in the second half was a peach – as was Kieran Hughes’ from the right. With McManus, Hughes, Finlay & Beggan Monaghan have a lethal deadball arsenal.

There has been much commentary about Galligan’s two misses at the end however we forget the one he converted in the first half. Of the three kicks he would only be expected to convert more than one a little over half (~52%) the time. The misses were magnified by the timing and the game state. Indeed Rory Beggan missed both his long range efforts. His misses won’t come under the same level of scrutiny as Galligan’s however when viewed over the entirety of the game they were every bit as important, and of a similar ilk, to the two that Galligan missed.

Kickouts

Cavan’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into an attack	%	Shot	%
Cavan	18	86%	14	78%	9	50%
Monaghan	3	14%	3	100%	3	100%
Monaghan’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into an attack	%	Shot	%
Cavan	7	29%	6	86%	3	43%
Monaghan	17	71%	15	88%	9	53%

A word of warning when reviewing these. A lot of the immediate kickout aftermath – where the ball was aimed, who won it and how etc. was missed by the TV coverage. Not too sure why this may be – there were various lingering shots of players leaving the field and entering the subs bench when the game was progressing!

Shot Charts

Cavan’s shooting

Monaghan’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play,

Players with >= 3 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
C McManus (Monaghan)	3	2	67%	+0.737
G McKiernan (Monaghan)	3	2	67%	+0.479
M Argue (Cavan)	3	2	67%	+0.114

Dublin V Monaghan 2015 League semi final

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Attacks	Attack %	Shots	Shot %	Scores	Success %	Weighting
Dublin	48	41	85%	28	68%	17	61%	+2.626
Monaghan	39	33	85%	28	85%	16	57%	+2.832
Avg			37.0	28.7	77.7%	14.7	51.2%

In terms of outcomes both teams posted similar numbers – just one score in the difference with high Success Rates & Weightings.

How both teams went about amassing their shots was the big difference. Dublin had a huge lead in terms of possessions, fuelled as we will see below by their utter dominance at kickouts, and whilst they converted those possessions to attacks at a high rate (85%) they then stalled once they got inside the Monaghan’s 45. This flow – a high attack rate combined with a low shot rate – is to be somewhat expected when you come up against a defensive set up which Monaghan would generally be regarded as.

Monaghan on the other hand were living on comparative scraps but they were ruthlessly efficient with what they had. They had a full 8 attacks less than Dublin but managed the same volume of shots. And those shots were no forlorn haymakers – their accuracy was on a par with Dublin.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
Dublin	20	10	50%	+1.032
Monaghan	21	11	52%	+2.283
Avgs	21.4	9.7	45.3%

Again excellent shooting from both teams though Dublin will possibly be concerned with the lack of cutting edge in the second half. Yes they scored 0-08 in that second half but that only contained six shots from play in that entire half with only two in the last 25 minutes.

Monaghan’s accuracy from play can, in the main, be attributed to C McManus with a generous helping from D Clerkin. McManus was 5 from 6 with a weighting of +2.566 – his only miss was a dubious one as well coming in from the wing on the right I adjudged he attempted a shot with the outside of his foot – he may well have been attempting a pass across the goal.

Clerkin came on at half time and managed 3 points from 4 shots with a weighting of +1.258. Some cameo.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
D Rock (Dublin)	8	7	88%	+1.594
C McManus (Monaghan)	3	3	100%	+0.955
R Beggan (Monaghan)	3	1	33%	-0.569
P Finlay (Monaghan)	1	1	100%	+0.163
team avgs	7.2	4.9	68.7%

All the regulation frees were converted.

Due to the nature of the weighting Beggan probably gets harshly dealt here. His three attempts were monstrous ones (two long, one wide on the 45) so 1pt feels about par. A negative weighting is harsh.

Monaghan will be disappointed with their defensive discipline. As highlighted they had stymied Dublin in the second half however let them keep the scoreboard ticking over through frees. All Rock’s frees were “gettable” and given their hitherto fore reliance on deadballs you would think Monaghan would be equally as conscious of not giving them up at the other end.

Turnovers

Team “coughing up” possession	Volume	Shots from Turnovers	%
Dublin	23	15	65%
Monaghan	13	7	54%

A very low turnover volume from Monaghan – considering how few possessions they had compared to Dublin it was imperative that they make the most of what they had. This they did.

Kickouts

Dublin’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into an attack	%	Shot	%
Dublin	18	75%	15	83%	8	44%
Monaghan	6	25%	6	100%	5	83%
Monaghan’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into an attack	%	Shot	%
Dublin	16	64%	15	94%	12	75%
Monaghan	9	36%	6	67%	6	67%

This was Dublin’s main strength throughout the day. If we remove all short kickouts, and define the remainder as contestable, Dublin won the kickout battle 24-8 and outscored Monaghan 0-10 to 0-04 form the possessions emanating from these kickouts. There was a period in the first half where, after Dean Rock had missed his only free, Dublin got their hands on a Monaghan kickout three times in a row scoring three points. If nothing else Monaghan showed remarkable resilience to stay in the game given the problems they were having getting primary ball.

Shot Charts

Dublin’s shooting

Monaghan’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play,

Players with >= 3 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
C McManus (Monaghan)	6	5	83%	+2.544
D Clerkin (Monaghan)	4	3	75%	+1.258
K Hughes (Monaghan)	4	2	50%	+0.412
K McManamon (Dublin)	3	2	67%	+0.704
B Fenton (Dublin)	3	2	67%	+0.540
D Connolly (Dublin)	3	0	0%	-1.184

Dublin v Monaghan 2014 Championship

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	51	43	84%	24	56%	+2.045
Monaghan	32	27	84%	11	41%	-1.623
Champ (’12 & ’13 avg)	35.8	27.6	77.2%	14.1	51.0%

Not much of a contest once the goals went in however Dublin will be once again be pleased with their overall returns. This is the fourth game in a row where they have produced a Shot Rate of 80% or greater on 50 or more attacking possessions. This means that over the four games their lowest volume of shots has been 42.

Maintain that going forward and, even converting at an average rate, without goals, that equates to a minimum score of 0-21.

Looking forward it is interesting to review how Monaghan did prior to the first goal. The numbers show that they were definitely keeping Dublin in check; Dublin had 14 possessions and 10 shots (71% Shot Rate) in that period. This equates to 42 possessions & 30 shots over a 75 minute game (allowing for injury time). Monaghan were placing Dublin under pressure when shooting to the extent that they only had a Success Rate of 30%. An example of this pressure was when B Brogan appeared not to have any options from a sideline so attempted a point. A 30% Success Rate on 30 shots would be a score of 0-09 or 1-08.

Remember also that after 28 minutes Laois were 0-08 to 0-06 up against Dublin. They too had held Dublin in check with a 78% Shot Rate (14 shots from 18 possessions) and a Success Rate of 43% (though Dublin did go for goal early in that game). Between the two let’s say that Donegal keep Dublin to a shot rate of 78% on 42 possessions with a 43% Success Rate. That equates to a Dublin score of 0-14 or 1-13. Definitely keeps them in the game.

This is the ultimate “what-iffery”, and there are huge questions around whether a team could keep the discipline & intensity required over 75 minutes, but I have no doubt that it is this story the Donegal back room team are spinning in the build up to the semi final.

Where attacks originated

	Opposition k/out	Own k/out	Ball received in Own 3rd	Ball received in Mid 3rd	Ball received in Opposition 3rd	Other (throw-in, rebound etc.)
Dublin	6	18	14	9	2	2
Monaghan	3	10	13	4	0	2

As ever there are two main areas by which you can start attacks; kickouts & turnovers. We will see below that both teams created the same volume of turnovers but Dublin were better in the transition phase getting 25 attacks from their 31 turnovers as against 17 for Monaghan.

The big difference was in kickouts. Dublin created 11 more attacks from the possessions gained on kickouts than Monaghan did

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	33	16	48%	+1.416
Monaghan	20	4	20%	-3.805
Champ avgs (’12 & ’13)	20.3	9.2	45.4%

Monaghan’s shooting was particularly poor but this is not a new phenomenon. Unfortunately I have not managed to review the Kildare game yet but in the last seven Championship games on the blog, stretching back to the start of the ’13 Ulster Championship, Monaghan’s highest Success Rate has been 44% (against Tyrone in ’13).

A lot of focus is placed on Dublin’s phenomenal attacking prowess (guilty as charged!) but their defence stood up in the 25 minute prior to the goals. Monaghan attempted six shots from play in that spell with five of them occurring under heavy pressure. All five were missed.

Dublin continue on their merry way. Remarkably, considering that the average number of shots from play over the past two years has been 20.3, the 33 shots posted here is the lowest of the campaign thus far.

Of the 33 attempts five were for goal – bringing their four game average to 6.75 per game – thus leaving a Success Rate of 50.0% when shooting for points which is below their four game average of 51.7%.

The goals had an effect on Monaghan’s intensity. Prior to Connolly’s goal Dublin had only attempted five shots from play missing all five. Four of them were taken under pressure (O’Gara’s fisted effort in to the goal was the fifth). After the goal Dublin attempted six shots from play before half time with five of them taken without any pressure.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
B Brogan (Dublin)	7	6	86%	+0.379
S Cluxton (Dublin)	2	1	50%	+0.019
D Connolly (Dublin)	1	1	100%	+0.232
C McManus (Monaghan)	4	4	100%	+0.786
K Hughes (Monaghan)	2	2	100%	+0.906
R Beggan (Monaghan)	1	1	100%	+0.500
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ)	7.3	4.9	66.7%

A relatively good day for Dublin converting 80% with Connolly converting one from the right. Highlighting Connolly’s attempt may seem strange but against Meath he missed two from that side. All involved will be happy to see this one converted.

Brogan’s only miss was his sideline attempt. That was his first deadball miss of this year’s campaign (11 from 12 (92%) with a weighting of +1.641). In contrast to Donegal Dublin’s deadball shooting has improved considerably this year. In 2013 they produced a Success Rate of 66% in their run to the All Ireland (33 from 50) with a weighting of -0.161. Basically bang on average. This year they are running at a combined 82% (27 from 33) with a weighting of +4.211. Another string to their attacking bow!

A quick nod to Monaghan’s deadball excellence. They were 100% against Dublin (7 from 7 with a weighting of +2.192) which continues the fine deadball striking they exhibited all season. For the four 2014 games on the blog they are running at an 80% Success Rate (28/35) with a weighting of +5.079.

Very similar to Dublin you might say but if we exclude Beggan’s attempts – who attempts a high volume of low percentage long range efforts – they are running at a Success Rate of 86%.

Turnovers

Team “coughing up” possession	Volume	Shots from Turnovers	%
Dublin	31	17	55%
Monaghan	31	23	74%

 

	Misplaced Pass	Tackled	Shots not going dead	Other
Dublin	13	4	7	7
Monaghan	19	5	4	3

In the Armagh – Donegal QF there were 44 turnovers in the entire game. Here there were 62 and Dublin’s 4 games to date are averaging 57.25. No doubt scoreboard pressure leads to teams attempting passes they wouldn’t normally, or running into alleys in an attempt to get goals, but perhaps surprisingly Dublin give up as many turnovers as they receive (110 given up over four games with 119 gained). The “trick” is that they are much more adept at converting the turnovers they receive to shots than the opposition have been.

Game	T/overs to shots – Dublin	T/overs to shots – Opposition
v Monaghan	74%	55%
v Meath	71%	42%
v Wexford	65%	53%
v Laois	71%	44%

Kickouts

Dublin’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into a possession	%	Shot	%
Dublin	20	87%	17	85%	14	70%
Monaghan	3	13%	3	100%	3	100%
Monaghan’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into a possession	%	Shot	%
Dublin	14	42%	7	50%	5	36%
Monaghan	19	58%	10	53%	8	42%

There really wasn’t a contest on Dublin’s kickouts with 16 of the 23 going short. Monaghan stopped Dublin getting a shot off on the first four however as we have seen the life went out of their challenge thereafter and Dublin managed a shot from 11 of the remaining 12 short kickouts.

The cameras missed where a number of the Monaghan kickouts landed but we can assume that the majority were short. Of the remainder Dublin managed to apply a huge amount of pressure to Monaghan’s contestable (landing past the 45) kickouts winning 14 out of the 24. This doesn’t tell the full story however for they won 12 of the first 15 of such kickouts thus turning the screw on Monaghan once the initial gap in the scoreboard was established.

Shot Charts
Apropos of nothing in their 145 shots from play in this year’s campaign Dublin have yet to attempt one from outside the 45

Dublin’s shooting

Monaghan’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
C McManus (Monaghan)	10	2	20%	-1.725
B Brogan (Dublin)	6	2	33%	-0.832
D Connolly (Dublin)	5	2	20%	-0.219
A Brogan (Dublin)	4	3	75%	+1.424
P Flynn (Dublin)	4	2	50%	+0.424
D Clerkin (Monaghan)	3	2	67%	+0.707
E O’Gara (Dublin)	3	2	67%	+0.294
K McManamon (Dublin)	3	1	33%	-0.284
C Costello (Dublin)	3	1	33%	-0.332
D Rock (Dublin)	2	2	100%	+1.158
K Hughes (Monaghan)	2	0	0%	-0.785
O Duffy (Monaghan)	2	0	0%	-0.785

Monaghan V Donegal 2014 Championship

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Monaghan	36	23	64%	10	43%	-2.258
Donegal	33	26	79%	15	58%	+1.710
Champ (’12 & ’13 avg)	35.8	27.6	77.2%	14.1	51.0%

Monaghan had more attacking possessions than Donegal but their Conversion & Success Rates were very poor. Monaghan having more attacking possessions is a mirror of the 2013 final (they had 36 to Donegal’s 31 in that game) but it was Donegal’s shooting radar that was off that day (a Success Rate of 33%).

In the main Monaghan’s poor returns can be attributed to Donegal’s excellent defending rather than any particularly deficient attribute on behalf of the Monaghan attack.

Of the 13 Monaghan attacks that did not end in a shot six were due to Donegal dispossessing the Monaghan players in the tackle whilst another three were due to hand passes going astray; poor hand passes can be usually attributed to huge defensive pressure on the player giving the pass.

Even when they did get a shot off Donegal pressured 69% (9 of 13) of Monaghan’s shots from play thus ensuring that very few easy points were given away cheaply.

Where attacks originated

	Opposition k/out	Own k/out	Ball received in Own 3rd	Ball received in Mid 3rd	Ball received in Opposition 3rd	Other (throw-in, rebound etc.)
Monaghan	1	16	8	4	4	3
Donegal	2	12	14	1	0	4

One defensive attribute that Donegal will look to tighten up on (yes there is one!) is the fact that they gave up four turnovers in their own defensive 3rd. Monaghan only converted one of these four to a score – other teams may not be so lenient.

You can see how carefully Monaghan minded the ball – only 1 turnover between their own defensive 3rd & the middle 3rd whilst Donegal only got one shot from Monaghan kickouts.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Monaghan	13	5	38%	-0.897
Donegal	17	9	53%	+1.681
Champ avgs (’12 & ’13)	20.3	9.2	45.4%

A 26% drop in the average number of shots from play gives you an indication of arm lock that this game turned into at times.

In such a tight game a Success Rate of 53% is vital. When they got into position Donegal were very selective in their shots from play with MacNiallais & McBrearty hitting 6 from 7 for a combined weighting of +2.934. McFadden & Murphy’s struggles from play continue so it is imperative that the rest of the team step forward in the shooting stakes. Murphy did not have a shot all game whilst McFadden attempted two with no joy.

Their overall alertness was exemplified by the fact that two of their points (Lacey & MacNiallais) in the first half came from McLoone & McFadden showing great strength in retrieving & recycling wayward shots.

Despite the defensive nature of Monaghan’s set up Donegal managed to get eight shots (47%) off without pressure. Donegal managed to score from six of these eight.

Monaghan on the other hand had a torrid time getting their shots off. Only 4 of their 13 shots were taken without any pressure – they converted two of these. That means that Donegal pressured 69% of Monaghan’s attempts at play with Monaghan converting a paltry 22% (2 from 9).

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
C McFadden (Donegal)	6	4	67%	-0.235
M Murphy (Donegal)	3	2	67%	+0.264
R Beggan (Monaghan)	5	2	40%	-0.425
P Finlay (Monaghan)	4	3	75%	-0.364
C McManus (Monaghan)	1	0	0%	-0.572
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ)	7.3	4.9	66.7%

Undoubtedly the high volume of deadballs is bloated by the length that Murphy & Beggan have on their free kicks but even still 19 attempts from deadball is phenomenally high. That’s a shot from a deadball for every 1.6 shots from play. The average in 2013 was 1 for every 2.8 shots from play.

There were some spectacular frees converted – most notably Murphy’s monster towards the end of the second half – however no one really shone. The returns as a whole were slightly below average which will especially disappoint Monaghan given how few attempts from play they manufactured.

Turnovers

	Team “coughing up” possession	Shots from Turnovers	%
Monaghan	28	11	39%
Donegal	21	13	62%

 

	Misplaced Pass	Tackled	Shots not going dead	Other
Monaghan	16	6	4	2
Donegal	11	5	1	4

Perhaps the most surprising return from the game is how poor Donegal were at converting the turnovers they gained into shots. We have an image of Donegal as that ultra defensive team that sucks you into their web then catches you with lightening counter attacks.

In this game the first half was true as they had a +7 on turnovers but they only managed to convert 39% of those turnovers to shots. Monaghan were much more efficient converting 62% of their turnovers to shots. As we saw earlier in the overall returns they manufactured the shots – they just couldn’t convert.

The spread of those responsible for the turnovers (very subjective admittedly!!) is interesting. Although Monaghan had seven extra turnovers 16 different players were responsible for said turnovers – quite a spread. For Donegal nine separate players were responsible with McFadden underlying his average day (4 from 6 on frees, 0 from 2 from play) by topping the charts with five.

Kickouts

Monaghan’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into a possession	%	Shot	%
Monaghan	20	91%	16	80%	8	40%
Donegal	2	9%	2	100%	2	100%
Donegal’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into a possession	%	Shot	%
Monaghan	4	24%	1	25%	0	0%
Donegal	13	76%	12	92%	10	77%

We missed a lot of kickout coverage, especially Monaghan’s kickouts in the second half. The TV panned back from a replay, or a lingering shot on a substitute climbing the steps to the benches, to see a Monaghan player in possession of the ball around their 65m line.

One can only surmise that Monaghan took clean possession on short kickouts on those the camera missed. This is why they had such a high “win” rate on their own kickouts – Donegal retreated letting Monaghan have possession deep in their own half and only engaged in a meaningful way at their own 45.

Donegal were more inclined to mix their kickouts – eight went long with Monaghan winning their four Donegal kickouts here. They will be disappointed that they could not convert one of these four into a shot never mind a score.

Donegal’s low conversion rate of the turnovers to shots becomes even more curious when you consider that they converted 78% (7 from 9) of the non long kickouts to shots. Why was it that they could convert kickouts received in their own half to shots but couldn’t convert turnovers received into shots?

Shot Charts

Monaghan’s shooting

Donegal’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
P McBrearty (Donegal)	4	3	75%	+1.209
P Finlay (Monaghan)	4	1	25%	-0.577
O MacNiallais (Donegal)	3	3	100%	+1.725
R McHugh (Donegal)	2	1	50%	+0.234
A Thompson (Donegal)	2	1	50%	+0.224
K Lacey (Donegal)	2	1	50%	-0.207
K Hughes (Monaghan)	2	1	50%	-0.207
C McFadden (Donegal)	2	0	0%	-0.719

Monaghan V Tyrone 2014 Championship

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Monaghan	34	28	82%	13	46%	-1.407
Tyrone	39	29	74%	14	48%	-0.023
Champ (’12 & ’13 avg)	35.8	27.6	77.2%	14.1	51.0%

Goals win games. Tyrone had more possessions, one more shot and a better Success Rate but Monaghan gained that all important goal.

Monaghan’s overall shooting was poor but it was a real Jekyll & Hyde performance. They were abject from play but stellar from placed balls – the penalty was the only deadball miss all day. Nowhere was this better exemplified than in Conor McManus’s performance; 0/5 from shots from play & 6/6 from frees!

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Monaghan	19	5	26%	-3.296
Tyrone	21	9	43%	-0.325
Champ avgs (’12 & ’13)	20.3	9.2	45.4%

What a dreadful set of numbers from Monaghan. Their shooting from play was atrocious. There was nothing extraordinary in the shots they were attempting, nor the conditions, to explain this poor return other than poor execution.

8 of the 12 attempts for points that they missed had pressure applied to the shots – three of the fours that did not have pressure applied were from central areas however (from Sector5) – so we have poor shot selection (under pressure out wide) or poor execution (centrally with no pressure).

Mattie Donnelly & Sean Cavanagh were good for Tyrone but no one else stood up. Stephen O’Neill did not have a shot all day; Ronan O’Neill only had the one before being substituted. McCurry did have the majority of shots for Tyrone but his radar was not fully focussed – returning a slightly below average 40% on 5 shots.

Tyrone had more shots from play, and were more accurate – just not accurate enough to overcome Monaghan’s deadball capabilities.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
C McManus (Monaghan)	6	6	100%	+1.153
R Beggan (Monaghan)	2	2	100%	+1.143
K Hughes (Monaghan)	1	0	0%	-0.407
N Morgan (Tyrone)	4	2	50%	+0.035
D McCurry (Tyrone)	2	2	100%	+0.613
C McAliskey (Tyrone)	1	1	100%	+0.227
S Cavanagh (Tyrone)	1	0	0%	-0.572
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ)	7.3	4.9	66.7%

McManus may have had a poor day from play but he was excellent from frees converting all six. Rory Beggan complemented McManus’s nearer to goal efforts with two long range conversions. If we had consistent measurements I would imagine the distance from his converted free in Sector 1 would be as long a successful free as we will see this year.

Despite the fact that McManus converted six, and Beggan ‘only’ two, their weighting is quite similar. That gives an indication that McManus’s frees were of the easier variety. (Cavanagh got 6 from 6 against Meath last year and had a weighting of +2.652 as a reference)

Tyrone’s deadball returns were essentially average. I can understand why Morgan took the last free kick (he was 2 from 3 at that point and easily had the distance) however Cavanagh had taken a similar kick to draw the first game against Down. Whilst this one was closer to the sideline than the Down attempt he could have stolen a few yards by walking in with the free.

As I said it is easy to see why Morgan took that free kick but I would have liked to have seen Cavanagh be given the ball in that situation.

Kickouts

Monaghan’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into a possession	%	Shot	%
Monaghan	15	68%	8	53%	8	53%
Tyrone	7	32%	7	100%	7	100%
Tyrone’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into a possession	%	Shot	%
Monaghan	7	33%	5	71%	3	43%
Tyrone	14	67%	11	79%	8	57%

Overall the kickouts won stat shows an even game – Monaghan edging it 22-21. Tyrone were better at creating shots from the kickouts won however converting 71% of their wins to shots as opposed to 50% for Monaghan. Essentially an extra four shots.

These extra four shots came from Monaghan’s kickouts – they won the same amount of the opposition’s kickouts (33% v 32%) as Monaghan did but they converted every one they won into a shot.

Tyrone had quite a strange kickout day overall. In the first half they had Conor Clarke beside the goal acting as ball boy for Morgan. This enabled them to get the kickout away quickly; 8 of their 13 first half kickouts went short. From these 8 kickouts they got a shot five times whilst almost as importantly denied Monaghan possession on all eight.

Of their other five Tyrone got one shot with Monaghan getting three. You would say that the tactic was working – get the ball out quick or else Monaghan were winning possessions and getting shots off.

But then they completely changed this in the second half. Clarke was sitting up in the substitutes bench and of the seven Tyrone kicks where we were shown where the ball landed only one went short. Of the other six Monaghan won four with both teams getting a shot apiece from the possessions won.

You had a predetermined strategy that was working and then appear to abandon it in the second half – why?

Turnovers

Team “coughing up” possession	Volume	Shots from Turnovers	%
Monaghan	29	21	72%
Tyrone	27	16	59%

 

Team “coughing up” possession	Misplaced Pass	Tackled	Shots not going dead	Mishandled possession	Other
Monaghan	14	7	5	2	1
Tyrone	15	3	5	2	2

There was not much between the teams in terms of how the ball was given away and what the opposition did with it.

What is of interest is where the teams gave the ball away. Of the 27 turnovers Tyrone coughed up they only gave Monaghan the ball 5 times outside the 45 – they were very careful with it.

Monaghan on the other hand “gave” Tyrone the ball 12 times outside of Tyrone’s 45. Tyrone only managed to convert these excellent opportunities into a shot six times scoring 0-02. Monaghan will struggle to stay with a more clinical team (Dublin converted 9 such opportunities to x shots and y scores) if their shooting continues to be anywhere near as wayward.

Shot Charts
Well it appears that Dublin & Mayo are on to something! After two games in which both teams only took one shot each from the left hand side we have a game where there were a combined 11 shots from the left – and all 11 were missed.

Monaghan’s shooting

Tyrone’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
D McCurry (Tyrone)	5	2	40%	-0.126
C McManus (Monaghan)	5	0	0%	-2.183
Mattie Donnelly (Tyrone)	4	3	75%	+1.075
K Hughes (Monaghan)	4	2	50%	+0.318
S Cavanagh (Tyrone)	3	2	67%	+0.717
F Kelly (Monaghan)	3	2	67%	+0.507
C McGuinness (Monaghan)	3	0	0%	-1.265
C McGinley (Tyrone)	2	1	50%	+0.142

Monaghan V Tyrone 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Monaghan	25	20	80%	12	60%	-1.561
Tyrone	40	32	80%	14	44%	+1.281
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

To sum it up – Monaghan’s use of possession and shooting was every bit as good, if not better, than Tyrone’s. They just didn’t have enough of the ball. They had possession of the ball inside Tyrone’s 45 a full ten times less than the average.

Whilst Tyrone’s shooting was below average it was the volume of shots that ensured they kept Monaghan at arms length. Although both teams finished with 14 men Monaghan had a numerical advantage for the first 12 minutes of the second half. During that time Tyrone had four more possessions (9-5) and two more shots (7-5). Monaghan just didn’t drive home their advantage.

Not sure where to comment on Cavanagh’s rugby tackle however his discipline whilst on the yellow was immense. Twice thereafter he stopped Monaghan running attacks by getting an arm in from behind; against Clerkin (49:50) & Wylie (56:18). Juxtapose this with the widely held view that Darren Hughes’ yellow card negated his ability to mark Cavanagh.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Monaghan	14	6	43%	+0.1082
Tyrone	25	10	40%	-0.7239
2012 team avgs	20.14	9.36	46.5%

For Tyrone there were wonderful contributions from that man Cavanagh (3 from 5; weighting +0.884) and two beautiful points from Joe McMahon (2 from 2; weighting +1.202). McMahon has played as a sweeper against Meath & Kildare which meant he didn’t attempt a shot from play in either game. With Monaghan not posing as great a threat (the numbers in the first table bear this out) he was able to come up the pitch and reminded us just what a threat he is when he pushes forward.

After his exploits against Donegal Kieran Hughes was well marshalled with Tyrone only allowing him one shot – which he duely converted. McManus hit two peaches from the right hand side towards the end of the first half but also missed all three from the left. Clerkin (1 from 4) and Clarke’s (1 from 5) wayward shooting cancelled each other out.

Looking ahead Tyrone have to be concerned about their ability to keep up with a free scoring Mayo. In the last three games their full forward line has converted a combined 14% (2 from 14; weighting of -3.905). They are only taking, on average, just over 1.5 shots each per game – and taking very poor ones at that.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
S Cavanagh (Tyrone)	4	2	50%	-0.896
D McCurry (Tyrone)	3	2	67%	+0.059
C McManus (Monaghan)	4	4	100%	+0.817
P Finlay (Monaghan)	3	2	67%	+0.356
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

Excellent again from McManus. In the three games we have for Monaghan this year his aggregate is 91% (10/11) with a combined weighting of +1.909. You really can’t ask for much more from your free taker.

After hyping up Tyrone’s deadball feats (see here) against Meath & Kildare they then of course throw in a comparative stinker! There were mitigants however; McCurry’s missed free was from the sideline and whilst the chances of success were low it would be hard to argue against an in form free taker having a go. Cavanagh’s two misses were from c35m-40m out whilst the second was in sector4 (the “wrong” side for a right footed free taker) after McCurry was substituted. Still the numbers don’t lie – his day was well below average.

Shot Charts

Monaghan’s shooting

Tyrone’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

A contrast in kickout styles. Monaghan went past the 45m line on 82% (23 of 28) of their kickouts  but only had a +1 differential on shots – they got six shots from those 23 kickouts whilst Tyrone got five. Monaghan’s remaining two shots came from short kickout possessions.

Tyrone by contrast went short on 63% 12 of 19) of their kickouts. They botched one of those giving Gollogly a great goal chance that he blazed over but of the other 11 they got the ball into Monaghan’s 45 nine times and managed to get six shots off.

Players with >= 2 shots from from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
S Cavanagh (Tyrone)	5	3	60%	+0.884
C McManus (Monaghan)	5	2	40%	-0.036
C Clarke (Tyrone)	5	1	20%	-1.516
D Clerkin (Monaghan)	4	1	25%	-0.448
Mattie Donnelly (Tyrone)	4	1	25%	-0.495
Joe McMahon (Tyrone)	2	2	100%	+1.202
C McGuinness (Monaghan)	2	1	50%	-0.121
S O’Neill (Tyrone)	2	0	0%	-0.670