Dublin v Monaghan 2014 Championship

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Dublin 51 43 84% 24 56% +2.045
Monaghan 32 27 84% 11 41% -1.623
Champ (’12 & ’13 avg) 35.8 27.6 77.2% 14.1 51.0%

Not much of a contest once the goals went in however Dublin will be once again be pleased with their overall returns. This is the fourth game in a row where they have produced a Shot Rate of 80% or greater on 50 or more attacking possessions. This means that over the four games their lowest volume of shots has been 42.

Maintain that going forward and, even converting at an average rate, without goals, that equates to a minimum score of 0-21.

Looking forward it is interesting to review how Monaghan did prior to the first goal. The numbers show that they were definitely keeping Dublin in check; Dublin had 14 possessions and 10 shots (71% Shot Rate) in that period. This equates to 42 possessions & 30 shots over a 75 minute game (allowing for injury time). Monaghan were placing Dublin under pressure when shooting to the extent that they only had a Success Rate of 30%. An example of this pressure was when B Brogan appeared not to have any options from a sideline so attempted a point. A 30% Success Rate on 30 shots would be a score of 0-09 or 1-08.

Remember also that after 28 minutes Laois were 0-08 to 0-06 up against Dublin. They too had held Dublin in check with a 78% Shot Rate (14 shots from 18 possessions) and a Success Rate of 43% (though Dublin did go for goal early in that game). Between the two let’s say that Donegal keep Dublin to a shot rate of 78% on 42 possessions with a 43% Success Rate. That equates to a Dublin score of 0-14 or 1-13. Definitely keeps them in the game.

This is the ultimate “what-iffery”, and there are huge questions around whether a team could keep the discipline & intensity required over 75 minutes, but I have no doubt that it is this story the Donegal back room team are spinning in the build up to the semi final.

Where attacks originated

Opposition k/out Own k/out Ball received in Own 3rd Ball received in Mid 3rd Ball received in Opposition 3rd Other (throw-in, rebound etc.)
Dublin 6 18 14 9 2 2
Monaghan 3 10 13 4 0 2

As ever there are two main areas by which you can start attacks; kickouts & turnovers. We will see below that both teams created the same volume of turnovers but Dublin were better in the transition phase getting 25 attacks from their 31 turnovers as against 17 for Monaghan.

The big difference was in kickouts. Dublin created 11 more attacks from the possessions gained on kickouts than Monaghan did

Shots from Play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Dublin 33 16 48% +1.416
Monaghan 20 4 20% -3.805
Champ avgs (’12 & ’13) 20.3 9.2 45.4%

Monaghan’s shooting was particularly poor but this is not a new phenomenon. Unfortunately I have not managed to review the Kildare game yet but in the last seven Championship games on the blog, stretching back to the start of the ’13 Ulster Championship, Monaghan’s highest Success Rate has been 44% (against Tyrone in ’13).

A lot of focus is placed on Dublin’s phenomenal attacking prowess (guilty as charged!) but their defence stood up in the 25 minute prior to the goals. Monaghan attempted six shots from play in that spell with five of them occurring under heavy pressure. All five were missed.

Dublin continue on their merry way. Remarkably, considering that the average number of shots from play over the past two years has been 20.3, the 33 shots posted here is the lowest of the campaign thus far.

Of the 33 attempts five were for goal – bringing their four game average to 6.75 per game – thus leaving a Success Rate of 50.0% when shooting for points which is below their four game average of 51.7%.

The goals had an effect on Monaghan’s intensity. Prior to Connolly’s goal Dublin had only attempted five shots from play missing all five. Four of them were taken under pressure (O’Gara’s fisted effort in to the goal was the fifth). After the goal Dublin attempted six shots from play before half time with five of them taken without any pressure.

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
B Brogan (Dublin) 7 6 86% +0.379
S Cluxton (Dublin) 2 1 50% +0.019
D Connolly (Dublin) 1 1 100% +0.232
C McManus (Monaghan) 4 4 100% +0.786
K Hughes (Monaghan) 2 2 100% +0.906
R Beggan (Monaghan) 1 1 100% +0.500
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ) 7.3 4.9 66.7%

A relatively good day for Dublin converting 80% with Connolly converting one from the right. Highlighting Connolly’s attempt may seem strange but against Meath he missed two from that side. All involved will be happy to see this one converted.

Brogan’s only miss was his sideline attempt. That was his first deadball miss of this year’s campaign (11 from 12 (92%) with a weighting of +1.641). In contrast to Donegal Dublin’s deadball shooting has improved considerably this year. In 2013 they produced a Success Rate of 66% in their run to the All Ireland (33 from 50) with a weighting of -0.161. Basically bang on average. This year they are running at a combined 82% (27 from 33) with a weighting of +4.211. Another string to their attacking bow!

A quick nod to Monaghan’s deadball excellence. They were 100% against Dublin (7 from 7 with a weighting of +2.192) which continues the fine deadball striking they exhibited all season. For the four 2014 games on the blog they are running at an 80% Success Rate (28/35) with a weighting of +5.079.

Very similar to Dublin you might say but if we exclude Beggan’s attempts – who attempts a high volume of low percentage long range efforts – they are running at a Success Rate of 86%.

Turnovers

Team “coughing up” possession Volume Shots from Turnovers %
Dublin 31 17 55%
Monaghan 31 23 74%

 

Misplaced Pass Tackled Shots not going dead Other
Dublin 13 4 7 7
Monaghan 19 5 4 3

In the Armagh – Donegal QF there were 44 turnovers in the entire game. Here there were 62 and Dublin’s 4 games to date are averaging 57.25. No doubt scoreboard pressure leads to teams attempting passes they wouldn’t normally, or running into alleys in an attempt to get goals, but perhaps surprisingly Dublin give up as many turnovers as they receive (110 given up over four games with 119 gained). The “trick” is that they are much more adept at converting the turnovers they receive to shots than the opposition have been.

Game T/overs to shots – Dublin T/overs to shots – Opposition
v Monaghan 74% 55%
v Meath 71% 42%
v Wexford 65% 53%
v Laois 71% 44%

Kickouts

Dublin’s kickouts Won % Turned into a possession % Shot %
Dublin 20 87% 17 85% 14 70%
Monaghan 3 13% 3 100% 3 100%
Monaghan’s kickouts Won % Turned into a possession % Shot %
Dublin 14 42% 7 50% 5 36%
Monaghan 19 58% 10 53% 8 42%

There really wasn’t a contest on Dublin’s kickouts with 16 of the 23 going short. Monaghan stopped Dublin getting a shot off on the first four however as we have seen the life went out of their challenge thereafter and Dublin managed a shot from 11 of the remaining 12 short kickouts.

The cameras missed where a number of the Monaghan kickouts landed but we can assume that the majority were short. Of the remainder Dublin managed to apply a huge amount of pressure to Monaghan’s contestable (landing past the 45) kickouts winning 14 out of the 24. This doesn’t tell the full story however for they won 12 of the first 15 of such kickouts thus turning the screw on Monaghan once the initial gap in the scoreboard was established.

Shot Charts
Apropos of nothing in their 145 shots from play in this year’s campaign Dublin have yet to attempt one from outside the 45

Dublin’s shooting
Dublin shooing (V Monaghan)

Monaghan’s shooting
Monaghan shooting (V Dublin)

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
C McManus (Monaghan) 10 2 20% -1.725
B Brogan (Dublin) 6 2 33% -0.832
D Connolly (Dublin) 5 2 20% -0.219
A Brogan (Dublin) 4 3 75% +1.424
P Flynn (Dublin) 4 2 50% +0.424
D Clerkin (Monaghan) 3 2 67% +0.707
E O’Gara (Dublin) 3 2 67% +0.294
K McManamon (Dublin) 3 1 33% -0.284
C Costello (Dublin) 3 1 33% -0.332
D Rock (Dublin) 2 2 100% +1.158
K Hughes (Monaghan) 2 0 0% -0.785
O Duffy (Monaghan) 2 0 0% -0.785
Advertisements

Tags: , , ,

3 Responses to “Dublin v Monaghan 2014 Championship”

  1. gabriel campbell Says:

    Thanks for the info in these emails, very comprehensive and useful and great to show young players regards gay campbell

    Date: Wed, 13 Aug 2014 19:34:15 +0000 To: gabrielcampbell40@hotmail.com

  2. A Test of Faith | samsforthehills Says:

    […] Here’s a review of Dublin’s last match that gives Donegal the template for victory.  Just play like Laois or Monaghan did for 25 minutes.  Except they need to do it for 70 minutes.  In last year’s All Ireland Semi-Final, Dublin trailed Kerry by four points with five or minutes of normal time remaining.  They ended up winning by seven.  In last year’s Final, Mayo raced out to a five to one lead, Dublin hit back with a goal.  Similarly in the second half after Andy Moran gave Mayo renewed hope, Dublin marched down and got another goal.  They are relentless.  The question is, are they really as patient as is being made out? […]

  3. Kerry v Mayo Replay 2014 Championship | dontfoul Says:

    […] the Donegal plan, going in to the game, was simple. Defensively use the first 25 minutes in the Monaghan game as your template and maintain that for 70 minutes. Offensively – take every opportunity that […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: