Fermanagh V Westmeath 2015 Qualifier

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Attacks	Attack %	Shots	Shot %	Scores	Success %	Weighting
Fermanagh	48	37	77%	31	84%	14	45%	-1.508
Westmeath	47	36	77%	25	69%	7	28%	-6.793
Avg		37.0		28.7	77.7%	14.7	51.2%

An even enough game in terms of how much ball the teams had (possessions) and where they had it (attacks). The differential was in the attacking play and the accuracy of the shooting.

Once inside the 45 Fermanagh were able to get shots off (though the Shot Rate was boosted by their willingness to shoot from the wings – more of that anon) however Westmeath seemed to run out of ideas once met by Fermanagh’s defensive screen. 25 shots from 36 attacks is a low enough return.

On top of that, for the second game in a row, Westmeath’s accuracy was very poor. It was so poor that Fermanagh could have a below average outing and still win easily.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
Fermanagh	21	8	38%	-0.845
Westmeath	17	4	24%	-4.026
Avgs	21.4	9.7	45.3%

There was only one goal attempt in the game which Corrigan finished with aplomb.

There was one occasion in the first half however when Fermanagh, after overturning the ball high up the pitch, had a running overlap which they could have converted with an attacking hand pass. Instead the pass went square and Westmeath got back. Against Dublin they will need to be more aggressive.

When going for a point Fermanagh were poor converting 35% (7 from 20) with a weighting of -1.507. The main reason for this was where Fermanagh took their shots from. Only 35% were central – of the remainder Fermanagh converted 31% on 13 attempts. If you are going to shoot from wide you better have your shooting boots on – if they’re not on you better get more central.

Whilst not wishing to be overly critical of Westmeath that is now two games where they have trailed for long periods of the second half and in which they have not manufactured one shot on goal. As well as that their shooting from play was decidedly poor converting just 25% (8 from 32) of their point attempts for a combined weighting of -6.81. Combine both elements (poor shooting and no goal attempts) and you get some dismal returns from your possession.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
T Corrigan (Fermanagh)	6	5	83%	+0.853
S Quigley (Fermanagh)	4	1	25%	-1.516
J Connellan (Westmeath)	3	2	67%	-0.295
R Connellan (Westmeath)	3	1	33%	-1.062
P Sharry (Westmeath)	1	0	0%	-0.621
G Egan (Westmeath)	1	0	0%	-0.789

Only for Corrigan! In the first half there were 12 shots at goal from a deadball – with only four converted (33% versus an average of ~70%). The sequence is below. As the half was bookended with three points there were 8 misses from 9 attempts at one stage.

Point, Point, Wide, Wide, Wide, Wide, Point, Wide, Short, Wide, Wide, Point

Corrigan converted all five of his frees with the only miss being a rather rash attempt from a sideline ball.

Heslin being out proved a big hurdle for Westmeath to overcome and this was no more evident than when they turned down three opportunities for a shot at goal from a free inside Fermanagh’s 45. You have to imagine Heslin would have gotten two of them thus boosting Westmeath and placing great pressure on Fermanagh – in that first half particularly.

Kickouts

Fermanagh’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into an attack	%	Shot	%
Fermanagh	10	56%	7	70%	5	50%
Westmeath	8	44%	8	100%	6	75%
Westmeath’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into an attack	%	Shot	%
Fermanagh	10	34%	9	90%	7	70%
Westmeath	19	66%	15	79%	11	58%

We missed one of Fermanagh’s kickouts. Of the remaining 17 three went short meaning that of the 14 “contestable” kickouts Westmeath won the battle 8 – 6. This will have to be an area of concern going in to the next day..

Turnovers

Team giving up the ball	Pass	In the Tackle	Shot	Other
Fermanagh	11	4	1	3
Westmeath	10	8	6	1

Nothing too earth shattering here though Fermanagh did give up three turnovers inside their own 65 which Westmeath were unable to convert to a score. They will have to mind the ball better against Dublin

Players with >= 3 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
T Corrigan (Fermanagh)	5	3	60%	+0.920
S Quigley (Fermanagh)	4	1	25%	-0.729
S Dempsey (Westmeath)	4	1	25%	-0.979
D McCusker (Fermanagh)	3	2	67%	+0.807
J Connellan (Westmeath)	3	2	67%	+0.733

Dublin V Westmeath 2015 Leinster Championship

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Attacks	Attack %	Shots	Shot %	Scores	Success %	Weighting
Dublin	65	52	80%	38	73%	15	39%	-2.722
Westmeath	49	26	53%	20	77%	6	30%	-4.353
Avg		37.0		28.7	77.7%	14.7	51.2%

Whatever way you look at it Dublin have had two pretty amazing shooting performance in their last two games

Their points per possession far outstripped any other performance this year whilst their weighting in both games were two of the top three produced since 2012. They were bound to come back to Earth/regress to the mean/ drop off that pace but the fall off was pretty drastic. Their shooting was very poor here.

With Dublin taking so many shots at goal sometimes their Conversion Rate can take a hit but not here. They had three shots at goal scoring 2-01. Thus when going for a point, including from deadballs, they converted at a very low 35% (0 – 12 from 35 shots) with a weighting of -4.334.

Part of the problem – as can be seen in the shot chart below – was that only 20 % (6 out of 30) of their point attempts from play came from the two central zones. Against Longford this was 60% (21 of 35) and against Kildare it was 55% (17 of 31).

So in a few respects job done from Westmeath. They restricted Dublin to 3 goal shots and forced them to shoot from wide where Dublin executed poorly. This came at the expense of their own attacking game plan however. They were only able to move ~50% of their possessions into Dublin’s 45 (Longford 59%, Kildare 83%) and whilst their Shot Rate was about average the very poor Success Rate of 30% (not to mention the weighting of -4.4) tells you that the shots they attempted were poorly executed.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
Dublin	33	13	39%	-0.798
Westmeath	15	4	27%	-2.782
Avgs	21.4	9.7	45.3%

We have touched on the main points above so won’t rehash.

For the first time this Summer Dublin faced a very defensive team so I was on the lookout for anything that may have changed since the Donegal defeat last year. We have heard of Dublin introducing a basketball coach to help them gain an understanding of space and within the first 20 minutes you could see their influence in how Dublin forwards “screened” opposition backs clearing space for the attacker. Three snapshot examples below.

To my mind there is no doubt that the Dublin player without the ball is attempting to block off the opposition defender and the methodology definitely looks coached. If anyone else sets up as defensively as Westmeath it will be interesting to see if this continues.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
D Rock (Dublin)	3	2	67%	-0.610
B Brogan (Dublin)	1	0	0%	-0.820
D Connolly (Dublin)	1	0	0%	-0.494
J Heslin (Westmeath)	4	2	50%	-0.751
K Martin (Westmeath)	1	0	0%	-0.820
team avgs	7.2	4.9	68.7%

A pretty poor day all round.

Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the above table was that Dean Rock missed one. Coming in to this game he was at a Conversion Rate of 96% (22 from 23) from the league semi-final onwards. He’s still on a ridiculous 92% but the one he missed, whilst of the longer variety, was still well within range as can be seen below

Kickouts

Dublin’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into an attack	%	Shot	%
Dublin	11	100%	10	91%	8	73%
Westmeath	–	0%	–	0%	–	0%
Westmeath’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into an attack	%	Shot	%
Dublin	12	39%	12	100%	9	75%
Westmeath	19	61%	11	58%	9	47%

A prime example of how stats can be misleading. Overall Westmeath basically broke even on kickouts however when we break them down by team we can see that Dublin won all their kickouts (which I’m not sure has happened before).

Looking at Westmeath’s kickouts in isolation they appear to be in control as they gained possession on 60%. Take out short kickouts however and the split is 50:50

This game also shows the affect that setbacks can have. Westmeath gained control on their first nine short kickouts and whilst they only converted one of those nine possessions to a point they did manage four attacks. Then they had a terrible lapse at the start of the second half when Dublin pushed up and scored two goals off two short kickouts. Westmeath didn’t attempt another short one thereafter.

I guess the old Mike Tyson quote of everyone having a plan until they get punched in the mouth still rings through.

Turnovers

Team giving up the ball	Pass	In the Tackle	Shot	Other
Dublin	17	4	5	5
Longford	16	10	9	2

A very loose game with 68 turnovers in total best demonstrated by the fact that in their last two games combined 6 Dublin hand passes went astray. Here it was 9. No doubt the review session will be uncomfortable for a number of players but especially MD MacAuley. It may be unfair to single out one player but he looks like he’s struggling to get to the pitch of the game following his absence. I have him tagged for 6 turnovers with Connolly the next highest on 4 (all passes). MacAuley has time on his side but from here on in Dublin can’t have two of their main attacking threats coughing up the ball on 10 occasions.

Shot Charts

Dublin’s shooting

Westmeath’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play,

Players with >= 3 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
C Kilkenny (Dublin)	6	3	50%	+0.379
D Connolly (Dublin)	5	3	60%	1.013
B Brogan (Dublin)	5	2	40%	-0.067
J McCaffrey (Dublin)	3	1	33%	-0.147
J Heslin (Westmeath)	3	1	33%	-0.345
P Flynn (Dublin)	3	0	0%	-1.091
D Glennon (Westmeath)	3	0	33%	-1.382

Westmeath V Dublin 2014 League

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Westmeath	27	19	70%	8	42%	-1.394
Dublin	49	33	67%	14	42%	-3.552
Champ (’12 & ’13 avg)	35.8	27.6	77.2%	14.1	51.0%

Last week’s game between Kildare and Mayo gave us a glimpse of the “what might be” with high scoring and excellent shooting. The fare in Mullingar was more along the lines of what we expect in the league.

Whilst Dublin had a lot of possession (49 possessions was the highest recorded in the 25 2013 Championship games covered – as it happens by Dublin against Westmeath!) they were poor at converting that possession into shots. If they were only meeting the average they should have had 38 shots – in the aforementioned Championship game they had 42.

The Success Rates were below average as well. The refrain will be that “it’s only the league” however it is generally the league where you want your squad depth, your second rank of players, to put their hand up and make a push for a place in the Summer. McManamon & O’Gara are probably in Dublin’s second rank of forwards (Flynn, Kilkenny, Connolly, Mannion, B Brogan & Andrews being the nominal starting six with O’Gara, McManamon, A Brogan & Rock pushing for a starters role) however combined they converted one of eight shots. They weren’t necessarily difficult shots either with five of the eight occurring inside the 20m line.

As an aside neither Mannion nor Kilkenny attempted a shot from play.

For all Dublin’s struggles they put themselves in a position to win. Westmeath were unable to get enough ball to stick up front. With only 27 possessions their Shot Rate and Success Rate would have to have been excellent to put enough scores on the board. Neither were.

For Westmeath to come out on top they had to have everything go their way. There were signs however in the first few minutes that this wasn’t going to be the case. Three of Dublin’s first four shots shouldn’t have occurred
• The first shot was from a free right in front of the posts for an off the ball tug of the shirt – point
• The subsequent kickout went straight to an unmarked Dublin player – point
• A few minutes later O’Gara fluffed his goal shot but the Westmeath player that picked up the loose ball was ushered over the line – 45

These were all eminently preventable and the sort of mistakes that Westmeath will need to eradicate

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Westmeath	16	5	31%	-2.226
Dublin	21	7	33%	-2.183
Champ avgs (’12 & ’13)	20.3	9.2	45.4%

Not much more to add here. Both team’s shooting was well below the average

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
S Cluxton (Dublin)	5	3	60%	+0.661
C Kilkenny (Dublin)	4	3	75%	-0.581
P Mannion (Dublin)	2	0	0%	-1.609
P Hudson (Dublin)	1	1	100%	+0.160
J Heslin (Westmeath)	3	3	100%	+0.832
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ)	7.3	4.9	66.7%

A mixed bag. Mannion missed two very, very simple frees and whilst Kilkenny’s Success Rate was 75% his negative weighting tells you that the one he missed was a sitter.

To offset those poor displays Heslin’s striking was excellent particularly the monster free he converted from outside the 45m line in the first half. Then there was Cluxton.

A 60% Success Rate for Cluxton could easily be taken out of context and viewed as disappointing however for the type of deadball he is being asked to convert it is excellent. He is a phenomenal deadball striker. Case in point; he has converted 75% of all 45s charted – the average is 47%. The 60% is more a reflection on how stats can be misused than Cluxton’s ability

Kickouts
Dublin, as is their wont, were just too strong for Westmeath in this facet of the game. A lot of focus is given to how Dublin use their own kickouts and again they were very good in this game securing possession on 80% of their kickouts and only coughing up a shot to Westmeath from one of their 15 kickouts.

On top of this Dublin hemmed in Westmeath on their kickouts. Not only did they win ball on more of Westmeath’s kickouts than Westmeath (15 to 13) did they also stopped Westmeath from using what kickout possession they did win to launch attacks. Westmeath only got a shot from 31% of their own kickouts that they won – Dublin’s return was 67% from theirs.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
J Heslin (Westmeath)	5	2	40%	-0.548
K McManamon (Dublin)	5	1	20%	-1.466
P Hudson (Dublin)	3	3	100%	+1.865
C Reddin (Dublin)	3	2	67%	+0.643
E O’Gara (Dublin)	3	0	0%	-1.126
D Glennon (Westmeath)	3	0	0%	-1.284
D Byrne (Dublin)	2	1	50%	+0.281
G Egan (Westmeath)	2	0	0%	-0.719
P Sharry (Westmeath)	2	0	0%	-0.767
P Flynn (Dublin)	2	0	0%	-0.767

Dublin V Westmeath 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	49	42	86%	23	55%	+2.3558
Westmeath	32	23	72%	9	39%	-1.692
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

Following Kerry-Tipperary this is another game where one team was utterly dominant.

Prior to Westmeath taking their first shot from play in the 23rd minute Dublin had taken 16 shots. 15 of those shots were from play with only 5 coming under any form of pressure. This lack of pressure was not due to Westmeath tactical naivety; they effectively had 12 behind the ball. It was more due to the precision of Dublin’s attacking play. Some of the kick passing from Dublin was sublime, hitting forwards in stride and in space.

Shots from play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	34	17	50%	+2.6022
Westmeath	15	4	27%	-1.454
2012 avg	20.14	9.36	46.47%

The average number of shots from play for a team in 2012 was 20 … Dublin had 19 by half time.

The main protagonists’ returns are listed below. Many a time on the blog I have indicated that the support cast behind Brogan wasn’t backing him up on a consistent basis. This game saw a mixed bag on this front with Andrews & Flynn having excellent games, Kilkenny & Mannion having relatively quiet shooting days whilst Connolly & Brogan’s returns were below average. Outside of Brogan the returns for the other 5 starters up front were a Success Rate of 52% (12/23) and a weighting of +1.843. Dublin will take that knowing Brogan can hit form at any stage.

Connolly’s returns are somewhat skewed by the fact he had 3 attempts for a goal but didn’t convert any. For Dublin this may be the only real negative from the game; they had 5 shots for a goal but only converted 1. Again I’m sure the narrative internally is positive in the sense that they are making the chances but in tighter games these chances will have to be taken.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
B Brogan (Dublin)	5	5	100%	+0.576
D Rock (Dublin)	1	1	100%	+0.274
P Mannion (Dublin)	1	0	0%	-0.548
S Cluxton (Dublin)	1	0	0%	-0.548
J Heslin (Westmeath)	7	5	71%	+0.242
P Sharry(Westmeath)	1	0	0%	-0.481
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

Such a low weighting for a 100% return shows that all of Brogan’s frees were in the “easy” category. Heslin actually had quite a good day from deadballs after missing the first two but Westmeath desperately needed those initial scores.

Shot Charts
Interesting that anything Dublin hit, from either long or wide, was missed. They have the players to hit those shots in Connolly, Flynn & Brogan but it didn’t happen here.

Dublin’s shooting

Westmeath’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

The usual tables re kickouts are attached. What may be of more interest, given the general discussion on the game and how Kildare approached this area the last time they played, is Dublin’s kickouts.

	Dublin Won	Shots	Scores
Short	8	4	1
Mid/Long	10	4	3

Westmeath dropped off allowing Dublin to have possession on short kick outs. Did it work? To a point. Dublin only got 0-01 from the possession that emanated from short kickouts as against 1-02 from kickouts that passed the 45m line. Dublin did get 4 shots from each though.

There does appear to be merit, on very limited data, in trying this (letting Dublin have the short kickout) but will Kildare follow through after being so burned in the league?

Players with >= 2 shots from play
We’ve already touched on Connolly’s poor numbers. Glennon’s returns were also poor however every shot he took came under severe pressure and being their only real threat he probably felt he needed to take on the more marginal shots.

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
D Connolly (Dublin)	8	3	38%	-0.233
D Glennon (Westmeath)	7	2	29%	-0.687
B Brogan (Dublin)	6	2	33%	-0.373
P Andrews (Dublin)	5	4	80%	+1.653
P Flynn (Dublin)	5	3	60%	+0.908
C Kilkenny (Dublin)	3	1	33%	-0.551
K Martin (Westmeath)	2	1	50%	+0.32
P Mannion (Dublin)	2	1	50%	+0.066
C McCormack (Westmeath)	2	0	0%	-0.645
J Heslin (Westmeath)	2	0	0%	-0.761