Dublin v Meath 1991 Leinster Game4

Overview

For the second game in this series (Kerry v Dublin 1985 final here) the team that came out on top of the volume metrics (Possessions, Attacks, Shots) was beaten. Again, similar to 1985, the team with the better Conversion Rate came out of top but unlike that game here the impact of goals, both those scored and those missed, were of greater importance.

A big focus of the 1985 final review was the very high volume of possessions at 145. Here, just six years later, the volume has dropped to 114. At first glance it would appear that the intervening rule change of allowing frees to be taken from the hand has helped teams retain possession. Whilst this is probably true it is slightly deceiving in the context of this game as there was a large gulf in half splits here with 49 possessions in the first half and 65 in the second. That 65 is more in line with the 1985 final than modern trends but the first half was low predominantly due to the vast volume of shots from frees early doors (10 shots in the first 21 minutes of which 9 were deadballs!) as opposed to either’s teams increased focus on retention of possession. Indeed much like 1985 32% of all possessions had only one player control the ball.

When Meath had the ball

Goals, goals, goals. They win games. Meath had three shots at goal scoring 2 – 00 including one of the most famous goals of all time. The most interesting aspect of Kevin Foley’s goal – from a numbers perspective – is that it is the first time we have seen a team hold onto the ball. 114 team possessions in the game and there was only one with a sequence of more than six passes – the goal. There were 12 different player possessions in that move. In the aforementioned 1985 final there were 145 possessions with none containing more than seven player touches.

At a macro level Meath’s Attack Rate of 43% is very poor however it is a consequence of the type of game that was in vogue at the time. The primary concern was to clear your lines rather than retain possession. The Shot Rate of 87% was excellent however. Meath struggled to get the ball into Dublin’s 45 but once they did they were extremely effective at getting a shot off.

Outside of the goal attempts their shooting was a touch below average; Stafford took all deadballs scoring 0 – 06 from 8 (7x frees + 1x 45) for a 75% Conversion Rate and Expt Pts of -0.17 whilst they were a combined 0 – 04 from 9 (44%, Expt Pts of -0.54) on points from play.

Whilst he didn’t trouble the scoreboard during this game – only the one long range effort in the first half that drifted wide – Colm O’Rourke was highly influential throughout the game. He was the primary assist for 0 – 04 (won three frees that Stafford converted as well providing the pass for McCabe’s point in the 59th minute) as well as being central to both goals – providing the final ball across the box for Stafford’s goal as well as, miraculously given the state of the game, finding a pocket of space to receive the ball and flick it on to Tommy Dowd in the final throes of the Kevin Foley goal.

When Dublin had the ball

Dublin’s 1985 loss could, quite easily, be laid at their poor shooting (36%, Expt Pt -3.73). Superficially that is not the case here with a 56% Conversion Rate from play and 50% overall however their shot chart tells a different story.

The expected return, for the shots they attempted, was bang on average (0 – 10 from 18 for a Conversion Rate of 56% and Expt Pts 0f -0.03) when compared to modern returns. This despite missing five shots from within ~25metres. Their issues came from deadballs.

Combined Charlie Redmond and D Sheehan had 10 attempts from frees converting 0 – 05. In and of itself a Conversion Rate of 50% is below average however when we overlay the current “inside”/”outside” range on to their frees it becomes obvious that they converted all the ones they should have (0 – 03 from 3 “inside”) but didn’t score enough of the “outside” attempts. Add Jack Sheedy’s desperation attempt at the end and their “outside” free taking returned 25% (0 – 02 from 8).

Unfortunately for Dublin their deadball woes did not end there. They were three points ahead when Keith Barr dragged his penalty wide in the 61st minute. Missing a penalty happens (probably a much more regular occurrence then as the penalty was taken from the 13m line thus making it a lot harder) but what is most remarkable about this one is just how close Mick Lyons was allowed to be when Barr is striking the ball.

I’m not sure Mick Lyons would ever be described as subtle … but that’s not even trying!

Kickouts

Returns were even with Dublin winning 21 kickouts to Meath’s 20. Dublin went short five times and were relatively successful with them manufacturing three shots and scoring 0 – 02. Meath didn’t go short but that didn’t hinder them as they won the possession battle 20 – 16 on kickouts that travelled past the 45.

The “old” kickouts rules were still in place however we began to see some changes when compared to 1985. Dublin were trying a more directional kick out to the sidelines than either team did in 1985; especially on those from the small square (noted in black on the below chart)

Dublin v Meath 2014 Championship

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	57	48	84%	23	48%	-1.590
Meath	37	27	73%	11	41%	-2.514
Champ (’12 & ’13 avg)	35.8	27.6	77.2%	14.1	51.0%

Dublin blew Meath away but, from a Meath perspective, it could have been worse. Against Wexford and Laois the Success Rates were 60% & 55% respectively. Here Dublin’s shooting was of a more pedestrian nature thus, remarkeably, keeping the score in check.

What is remarkable is the very high Shot Rates that Dublin are maintaining. 84% here after 82% and 80% in the previous two games – all on attacking possessions in the 50s. Dublin continue to get a phenomenal amount of ball inside the opposition’s 45 and continually produce shots from that possession.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	41	18	44%	-2.236
Meath	23	8	35%	-2.714
Champ avgs (’12 & ’13)	20.3	9.2	45.4%

41 shots from play is verging on ridiculous though. Looking at the Success Rate & weighting we see that it is the volume of their shots, rather than the forwards accuracy, that led to a big score here. This has not been the case when we look at the entirety of their Leinster campaign however.

From play Dublin are converting at 48.2% (54 from 112 shots) with a combined weighting of +0.803.

Against Meath they had eight goal attempts converting three (about average). Over the three games they are averaging 7.33 shots at goal a game converting 32% (7 from 22).

Between them the two Brogans and McManamon had 17 attempts at a point. McManamon had a fine game converting 71% (5 from 7) but the two Brogans combined only converted 30% (3 from 10)

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
B Brogan (Dublin)	4	4	100%	1.175
D Connolly (Dublin)	2	0	0%	-1.094
S Cluxton (Dublin)	1	1	100%	+0.565
S O’Rourke (Meath)	2	2	100%	+0.685
M Newman (Meath)	2	1	50%	-0.486
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ)	7.3	4.9	66.7%

Mixed bag from a Dublin perspective. Brogan was very steady whilst Cluxton chipped in with his customary 45. Connolly’s two misses were from wide on the right and whilst it should not be too big an issue – given the sheer volume of shots Dublin take – I’m sure the back room team would have liked to see one go over in case they are required in future games.

Turnovers

Team “coughing up possession”	Volume	Shots from Turnovers	%
Dublin	26	11	42%
Meath	28	20	71%

 

	Misplaced Pass	Tackled	Shots not going dead	Other
Dublin	11	5	10	0
Meath	17	5	3	3

Dublin managed to convert 71% of the turnovers they extracted from Meath into a shot. We have seen that their shooting was slightly off in this game however if they maintain that shot rate in games to come then turnover ball will be a huge component of their scoring.

Kickouts

Dublin’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into a possession	%	Shot	%
Dublin	18	78%	13	72%	12	67%
Meath	5	22%	4	80%	2	40%
Meath’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into a possession	%	Shot	%
Dublin	10	31%	10	100%	9	90%
Meath	22	69%	17	77%	13	59%

Once again an area of huge strength for Dublin.

Meath did not use the short kickout (only going short on 5 of their 32 kickouts). Given this they had a respectable 17-10 “win” rate over Dublin on kickouts past the 45 however Dublin converted 90% of those wins into a shot. Meath could only convert 53% of their 17 wins to a shot.

On the flipside Dublin went short on 35% of their kickouts (8 from 23) getting 5 shots. Of the remaining 14 kickouts Dublin won 9 to Meath’s 5 with Dublin’s two goals coming directly from kickouts won past the 45

Shot Charts

Dublin’s shooting

Meath’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
K McManamon (Dublin)	9	6	67%	+1.659
B Brogan (Dublin)	7	3	43%	-0.750
M Newman (Meath)	6	2	33%	-0.832
A Brogan (Dublin)	5	1	20%	-1.399
E O’Gara (Dublin)	4	2	50%	-0.022
C Costello (Dublin)	4	1	25%	-1.040
S Bray (Meath)	3	2	67%	+0.808
P Flynn (Dublin)	3	1	33%	-0.217
D Connolly (Dublin)	3	1	33%	-0.566
J Wallace (Meath)	3	0	0%	-1.633
A Tormey (Meath)	2	2	100%	+1.142
D Rock (Dublin)	2	1	50%	+0.234
D Bray (Meath)	2	1	50%	+0.076
G Reilly (Meath)	2	0	0%	-0.858

Kildare V Meath 2014 Championship

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Kildare	45	35	78%	17	49%	+0.945
Meath	41	34	83%	18	53%	+2.378
Champ (’12 & ’13 avg)	35.8	27.6	77.2%	14.1	51.0%

Stats eh. From the below we will see that Kildare “won” the kickout battle, were much better than Meath at converting the turnover ball they won into shots and basically had the same shooting performance from play as Meath. But this game was effectively over from the 40th minute when Meath went 12 points up.

1st 40 minutes

	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Kildare	22	15	68%	7	47%	-0.611
Meath	30	27	90%	15	56%	+2.378

You can see from the above that up until that 40th minute interval Meath were phenomenal converting 90% (!!) of their attacks into shots and converting those shots at a well above average 56% of the time. Considering that 7 of those 27 shots were for goals their statline when attempting points was a phenomenal 13 from 20 (65% Success Rate) with a weighting of +3.2286.

Kildare on the other hand only converted 68% of their attacking possessions to shots. So whilst there has been considerable focus on Kildare’s defensive set up they were having difficulties getting shots off up the other end as well.

Of the 7 attempts at goal Meath scored 2-00; Kildare had 4 and scored 0-03. Meath had their 7 before Kildare attempted one however – indeed they had 6 in the first half.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Kildare	29	13	45%	+0.609
Meath	28	13	46%	+0.268
Champ avgs (’12 & ’13)	20.3	9.2	45.4%

Outside of their 6 shots at goal (the 7th was the penalty) Meath had a statline of 12 from 22 (55% Success Rate) with a weighting of +1.712 when shooting for a point. Considering that their main shooter from last year, Graham Reilly, only had three shots that’s an excellent return.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
A Tormey (Meath)	3	3	100%	+1.448
P O’Rourke (Meath)	3	2	67%	+0.661
P Fogarty (Kildare)	6	4	67%	+0.336
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ)	7.3	4.9	66.7%

Excellent deadball accuracy from Meath considering that their main protagonist last year, Newman, was not on the field. The only miss was from a free outside the 45 at a tight angle from the right hand side. Indeed Kildare’s defensive discipline in this aspect was very good – only conceding four frees within shooting range and none of them in prime position – it was just that Meath’s ball striking was excellent.

Kevin Reilly was excellent however he gave away the free for four of Kildare’s six shots from deadballs. Obviously you don’t want to take the physicality of his game away however in a tighter game such frees may all too easily relieve pressure building up on the opposition.

Kickouts

Kildare’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into a possession	%	Shot	%
Kildare	18	72%	13	72%	10	56%
Meath	7	28%	7	100%	5	71%
Meath’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into a possession	%	Shot	%
Kildare	13	43%	11	85%	9	69%
Meath	17	57%	12	71%	10	59%

Ostensibly Kildare won the kickout battle. They won 72% of their own kickouts and gained 5 extra shots.

Meath went short on four occasions so when their kickout was contestable (beyond the 45) the split was 50:50. Given the power, height and sheer physicality of Meath in that sector Kildare will have been happy with that outcome.

Turnovers

Team “coughing up” possession	# turnovers	Shots from Turnovers	%
Kildare	24	11	46%
Meath	23	15	65%

 

	Misplaced Pass	Tackled	Shots not going dead	Mishandled possession	Fouled ball
Kildare	14	4	4	0	2
Meath	12	8	2	1	0

Two things here from a Meath perspective. Firstly they “only” converted 46% of their turnovers to shots. We have seen that Dublin are in the mid 70% range for this so to stay with Dublin in the final they will have to take every chance that comes their way.

The second is just how many times they lost the ball in the tackle – seven different players lost the ball on eight separate occasions. The majority of these turnovers were from one tackler as well. Although none of these occurred in their defensive third of the pitch it may not matter against Dublin given their high shot rate from turnovers – Meath will need to mind the ball better.

Kildare “gave” the ball away on 15 occasions in the first half but at least 8 could be considered on the very poor side with five (!!) hand passes going astray as well as a sideline ball and two close in shots that were blocked. Only two of these specific eight turnovers resulted in a Meath shot but the fact that they occurred at all showed up the entire poor first half display.

Shot Charts
Again we see the “left hand side syndrome” rearing its head. Of their 28 shots from play Meath only attempted one from sector6 (left between the 20m & 45m). Kildare attempted three – less than 9% of all shots came from “wide left”. By comparison 13 (28% of all shots) shots came from Sector4 “wide right”.

Kildare’s shooting

Meaths’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play

Players with >= 2 shots from play

I would guess that McDonagh’s weighting is quite out of line with what most people would expect. He had four attempts at goal and converted one – twice he was denied in the one move by a very good double save from Donnellan whilst the Kildare keeper also denied him in the opening minutes.

On top of the fact that he missed his two attempts at a point (one from Sector8 in front of goal) he does not get any benefit for winning the penalty – the weighting measures shots only.

Stephen Bray hit 4 from 4 when going for points – his only miss being the attempt at goal he dragged wide on the near post in the first half.

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
A Smith (Kildare)	6	2	33%	-0.457
D McDonagh (Meath)	6	1	17%	-1.697
S Bray (Meath)	5	4	80%	+1.261
T Moolick (Kildare)	5	2	40%	-0.171
P O’Neill (Kildare)	4	3	75%	+1.497
D Carroll (Meath)	4	2	50%	+0.439
J Wallace (Meath)	4	1	25%	-0.618
E Callaghan (Kildare)	3	3	100%	+1.717
P Fogarty (Kildare)	3	2	67%	+0.717
A Tormey (Meath)	3	2	67%	0.586
G Reilly (Meath)	3	1	33%	-0.210
N Kelly (Kildare)	2	1	50%	+0.158
S O’Rourke (Meath)	2	1	50%	-0.134
K Cribbin (Kildare)	2	0	0%	-0.924
S Hurley (Kildare)	2	0	0%	-1.068

Meath V Tyrone 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Meath	35	27	77%	11	41%	-2.5623
Tyrone	37	33	89%	17	52%	+0.7507
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

Tyrone produced an excellent Shot Rate with it being well into the second half before they had a possession that didn’t result in a shot. Their shooting was quite good – as evidenced by an above average weighting on an average Success Rate – however there was quite a disparity between their shots from play and those from deadballs.

Very poor returns from Meath with only Wallace & Bray scoring from play. Goals at the start of either half kept them in touch but like Kildare the previous week Tyrone used their deadball accuracy to ensure they stayed just that step ahead.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Meath	15	5	33%	-1.2162
Tyrone	22	6	27%	-2.8206
2012 team avgs	20.14	9.36	46.5%

That is one set of ugly numbers.

For two weeks in a row Tyrone have been lacklustre in front of goal, averaging a poor 32% (12 from 37) from play. Their returns in this game were hampered somewhat by attempting three shots at goal but not converting any – as ever the positive spin will be that they are creating the chances.

Outside of the excellent Wallace Meath converted one of their eleven shots from play – a paltry 9%. Graham Reilly was in excellent shooting form in the opening two games, scoring eight points from a mere eleven shots. In the subsequent games against Dublin & Tyrone he had one shot in each. His role in the team obviously changed to suit however in 2014 Meath may be best served by ensuring he bears more of the shooting burden.

A quick note on Séan Cavanagh. He has had two excellent outings against Kildare & Meath but his accuracy from play has been just below average. For the two games combined he has converted 37.5% (3/8). This does not diminish his overall performances but is a further indicator of Tyrone’s dependence on him – he has taken more shots than O’Neill & Penrose combined. From midfield.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
S Cavanagh (Tyrone)	6	6	100%	+2.652
D McCurry (Tyrone)	5	4	80%	+0.919
M Newman (Meath)	11	6	55%	-0.846
P O’Rourke (Meath)	1	0	0%	-0.500
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

An absolutely superb day from Tyrone converting 91% (10/11). In the past two games their conversion rate is 81% (17/21; weighting of +2.833). Better still Cavanagh’s is 100% (9/ 9; weighting +3.128).

Prior to this display no player had received a weighting greater than 1.6; Cavanagh smashed that with a return of +2.652. He was able to do so given the relative difficulty of the shots he converted … his six frees all came from Sector 6 – on average those kicks are converted a little over 50% of the time.

McCurry also had a fine game from deadballs only missing the one 45. As a combination they have now converted a remarkable 89% (16/18) in the last two games. They are now performing at an equivalent level to Murphy & McFadden last year.

Monaghan were average against Donegal in giving away 6 frees within shooting range – they will want to maintain this discipline in the quarter-final. Tyrone has taken 9 shots (17 frees & 1 penalty) a game from deadballs against Kildare & Meath.

Newman’s deadball day was average. It is perhaps telling of the impression he has made that this comes as somewhat of a disappointment. His weighting gets hammered for missing a free from Sector8 despite the fact it was a desperation attempt at a goal … that aside he got the frees he was expected to get and didn’t convert enough of the higher tariff ones (three frees outside the 45 – converting one of them).

Shot Charts

Meath’s shooting

Tyrone’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

Meath won possession from the first four kickouts but the contest settled down thereafter.
Just under a quarter of all kickouts went short (11/45) with a shot emanating from 73% (8/11) – from all other kickouts there was a shot from 47% (16/34) of possessions gained from a kickout.

Meath messed up a short kickout early in the game, handing Tyrone an easy point, however in the long run it may be more profitable for teams to work the possession through short kickout routines than risk the opponent gaining a shot through 50:50 kickouts.

Players with >= 2 shots from from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
E Wallace (Meath)	5	4	80%	+1.726
S Cavanagh (Tyrone)	5	2	40%	+0.045
D McCurry (Tyrone)	4	1	25%	-0.930
Mattie Donnelly (Tyrone)	3	2	67%	+0.438
S Bray (Meath)	3	1	33%	-0.021
J Sheridan (Meath)	2	0	0%	-0.776
C Cavanagh (Tyrone)	2	0	0%	-0.795
B Farrell (Meath)	2	0	0%	-0.837
C McGinley (Tyrone)	2	0	0%	-0.866

Dublin V Meath 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	47	39	83%	17	44%	-1.550
Meath	35	28	80%	14	50%	-0.9566
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

A mixed bag from Dublin with very high levels of Possessions & Shots – second in both categories just behind their own performance against Westmeath – but poor shooting as evidenced by a Success Rate of 44%.

The poor Dublin shooting cannot be attributed to excellent Meath defending (though one sector did prove resilient – more of that anon) as there was pressure on only 55% (15 /27) of Dublin’s shots which is below what the top teams would produce. Dublin’s radar just happened to be off centre.

Meath’s returns are in line with the average but this is skewed somewhat by the final 10 minutes when they were chasing the game. After the second goal Meath had eight possessions but only got a shot off with four of them and only scored on one.

Prior to that period Meath had a Shot Rate of 89% and a Success Rate of 54% – their shooting was excellent and it was this, combined with Dublin’s profligacy, that allowed them to stay as close as they did, for as long as they did, whilst Dublin enjoyed such numerical advantage in terms of possessions & shots.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	27	10	37%	-1.383
Meath	20	9	45%	-0.4108
2012 team avgs	20.14	9.36	46.5%

After the opening salvo of 1-01 Dublin went approx. 30 minutes in the first half taking nine shots from play and scoring once. Yes they did come out in the second half and improve – Conversion Rate of 45% from 15 shots – but as the competition hots up you will not be able to get away with such long periods of profligacy.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
S Cluxton (Dublin)	7	3	43%	-0.347
P Mannion (Dublin)	2	2	100%	+0.429
B Brogan (Dublin)	2	1	50%	-0.403
D Rock (Dublin)	1	1	100%	+0.155
M Newman (Meath)	8	5	63%	-0.546
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

There were quite a number of shots at goal from deadballs. This is probably more an indicator of both team’s confidence in their long-range strikers than a side effect on the game itself. Remove 45s and shots from 40m or greater and the total volume drops to twelve.

Newman recovered well after missing the first two frees to convert five from five – the final miss was a shot at goal from the 21m line when Meath were chasing goals. The fact that the last free was so close to goal means that his weighting was severely affected – we cannot yet give a weighting to shots for goal from a free as I would say I have recorded less than 5 in total; instead it is treated as any normal free – remove this and he had an above average day.

Cluxton’s returns were below average. Yes he hit three nice scores from the 45m line but he also missed another 3 from the same range. Those 6 more or less even themselves out leaving the missed free out on the right hand side. Not a bad day – not a good day either.

Shot Charts
It is quite noticeable how much Dublin favoured the right hand side when shooting. Drawing an imaginary line up from the left parallelogram Dublin only took six shots from play from outside this line – and missed all six. It wasn’t just one player either – McManamon, Kilkenny, Brogan and Flynn all missed.

There was no evidence of this bias in the Westmeath game so whilst accepting it could just be random chance I would be inclined to attribute this lack of shooting to Meath’s right hand side defence.

Dublin’s shooting

Meath’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

A very even battle overall but perhaps slightly surprising splits given the nature of the commentary after the game. Meath were praised for how they managed the Dublin kickouts but this may be a case of first impressions lasting. Meath won possession on the first four of Dublin’s kickouts however only won possession on 19% (3/16) of the remainder.

In their previous game against Wexford (see here) we noted how the Meath kickout was fairly predictable but that this fact alone did not necessarily make it easy to defend. So it was in this game. 89% (24/27) of O’Rourke’s kickouts went long – passed the 65m line – whilst 67% (18/27) went down the middle … yet Meath won possession on a healthy 59% of their own kickouts.

Players with >= 2 shots from play
Much praise was, rightly, heaped on Kilkenny for his performance but Mannion was excellent as well.

Reilly & Byrne had a combined Success Rate of 69% (11 from 16) against Wicklow & Wexford but only managed 2 shots against Dublin.

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
C Kilkenny (Dublin)	6	3	50%	+0.350
P Mannion (Dublin)	4	3	75%	+1.340
M Newman (Meath)	4	3	75%	+0.624
E Wallace (Meath)	4	2	50%	+0.060
S Bray (Meath)	4	2	50%	-0.057
D Connolly (Dublin)	4	1	25%	-0.648
P Flynn (Dublin)	3	2	67%	+0.797
J Sheridan (Meath)	2	1	50%	+0.146
D Rock (Dublin)	2	1	50%	+0.140
C Lenihan (Meath)	2	0	0%	-0.680
B Brogan (Dublin)	2	0	0%	-0.692
J McCaffrey (Dublin)	2	0	0%	-0.770

Meath V Wexford 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Meath	35	30	86%	19	63%	+2.6226
Wexford	35	31	89%	13	42%	-0.3747
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

It was there for Wexford but this game was won by Meath’s superior Success Rather than lost by anything Wexford did/didn’t do. Having said that Meath’s high Success Rate is in no small way helped by Wexford continually fouling Meath forwards within Newman’s range.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Meath	19	10	53%	+1.4794
Wexford	23	8	35%	-3.074
2012 team avgs	20.14	9.36	46.5%

Good returns from Meath – and even more impressive if Stephen Bray’s off day is omitted. Removing Bray from the equation (theoretical I know as he did actually take the shots!) Meath’s returns would be; Success Rate of 75% (8 out of 12) and a weighting of +2.655

Wexford’s shooting was poor. Lyng, Brosnan & Barry produced basically average returns which meant that none were able to cover for Banville’s very poor day (converted 1 of 6 chances).

Not only will Meath be concerned with the volume of shots that they conceded but when Wexford were dominant in the first half Meath only got pressure on one of their opening eight shots. This did improve from midway through the first half where Meath managed to pressure 80% of the remaining shots but with Dublin on the horizon they will need to ensure this pressure is present from throw in.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
M Newman (Meath)	11	9	82%	+1.143
C Lyng (Wexford)	4	3	75%	+0.114
B Brosnan (Wexford)	4	2	50%	-0.787
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

Brosnan had a poor day as he missed a relatively simple free from in front of goal just before half time whilst Lyng was basically average as he also missed a simple enough free from the right on the 21m line.

Newman was excellent. A lot of frees were of the type that a good free taker would be expected to convert – the main point is that he did convert them. As a result his weighting makes this the 3rd best deadball performance in 2013 behind Murphy’s performance against Down & Goulding’s against Kerry.

Wexford’s discipline deserted them in the second half. Giving a team, that has as deadly a marksman as Newman in its ranks, 9 frees in a half is very poor. The argument is made that they were run ragged and chasing the game *but* seven of those frees came before the 60^th minute and they were never more than three points behind during that period.

Shot Charts
Meath’s shooting

Wexford’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

There’s not much sophistication in the Meath kickout strategy. They hit it long 95% of the time (21/22) and down the middle 73% of the time (16/22). As the above table shows however it worked for them as they got 6 more possessions and 5 more shots than Wexford from their own kickouts

They were equally adept on Wexford’s long kick outs as they won possession on 62% of those (8 out of 13). The problem in the Leinster final is that Dublin’s kickouts are a lot more sophisticated than hitting them long. On any Wexford kickout that did not go past the 65m line Meath only won possession on 17% (2 out of 12).

If Meath replicate this against Dublin then their own kickouts will be very predictable (though that does not necessarily mean Dublin can gain parity) whilst Dublin will have control over their own kickouts.

Players with >= 2 shots from play
Bray & Banville’s poor day was highlighted earlier but both Byrne & Reilly had excellent displays up front for Meath. In Meath’s two games to date he has converted 73% (8 from 11) with a combined weighting of +2.993

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
S Bray (Meath)	7	2	29%	-1.176
PJ Banville (Wexford)	6	1	17%	-2.026
G Reilly (Meath)	5	4	80%	+1.747
C Lyng (Wexford)	4	2	50%	+0.036
P Byrne (Meath)	3	3	100%	+1.728
B Malone (Wexford)	3	2	67%	+0.028
B Brosnan (Wexford)	3	1	33%	-0.111
A Flynn (Wexford)	2	1	50%	+0.140
E Wallace (Meath)	2	1	50%	-0.121

Wicklow V Meath 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Wicklow	31	25	81%	13	52%	+0.3692
Meath	33	29	88%	17	59%	+2.2345
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

Overall Wicklow did quite well, considering the conditions, however they were just out performed by a Meath team that had their shooting boots on. Possession numbers were lower than what we have seen in the Championship to date however this is attributable to the gameplans implemented due to the very strong wind. The total number of possessions in the first half was just 27 – Meath used the wind to hit in long balls that did not always favour the forward whilst Wicklow played a slow, deliberate, possession game that reduced the frequency with which they crossed the 45m.

The table below shows a straight comparison of how teams shot in the conditions. Both were quite similar with the wind however it was against the wind that Meath really prevailed. Joe Sheridan’s point from out on the right wing was a thing of beauty.

The most disappointing aspect for Wicklow will be that after the first three minutes with the wind, when they scored three points from three attacks, they then only had 9 shots from play with a conversion rate of 22%

	Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
With wind	Meath	12	6	50%	+0.736
	Wicklow	12	5	42%	+0.138
Against wind	Meath	10	6	60%	+1.099
	Wicklow	5	3	60%	+0.512

Please note that Kevin Reilly’s goal is not included in any of the numbers. It had a huge bearing on the game but was a complete fluke and as such doesn’t really fit with any of the definitions currently in use.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
J McGrath (Wicklow)	5	3	60%	-0.616
S Furlong (Wicklow)	3	2	67%	+1.835
M Newman (Meath)	7	5	71%	+0.399
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

Newman had a very good day from deadballs capped by an excellent 45 against the wind. His day would have been stellar had he not missed an easy enough free, even given the conditions, from the 21m line.

The Wicklow numbers are affected by the particular type of deadball missed. McGrath is somewhat harshly judged as one of his misses was a sideline attempt. We don’t have enough sideline attempts charted so they are treated as frees – and thus probably overly penalized.

Having missed a penalty Stafford should probably not have as positive a return as he does but again we do not have enough data on penalties and thus he is treated as having missed a regulation free.

Shot Charts
We have already mentioned Newman’s 45 against the wind but Meath’s shooting, and shot selection, from long range was excellent. When they used the wind from out the field it proved very effective. A huge bomb from c50m from Brian Meade comes to mind.

The same cannot be said of Wicklow; they only scored once from outside c25m and there were too many shots taken from bad angles out wide.

Wicklow’s shooting

Meath’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

It is a rare game where there is only one short kickout but that is what happened in Aughrim. Given the possession game Wicklow attempted in the first half I am surprised they didn’t throw a few in. They won

60% of their kickouts against the wind so may have felt they were justified kicking long however Meath got three shots from the six Wicklow kickouts that they won in the 1st half. Throwing a few short ones in may have reduced this.

Players with >= 2 shots from play
There were a number of fine performances with Graham Reilly’s returns being the pick. He ended up with 4 points from 6 shots however started on fire getting three from three in the first 15 minutes. Half way through the 2nd half he was four from four and on his way to one of the performances of the season.

For all the commentary about how fast Wallace is it was somewhat overlooked that there was an end product to go with the speed. Three points from four attempts is an excellent Championship debut.

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
G Reilly (Meath)	6	4	67%	+1.246
A McLoughlin (Wicklow)	5	3	60%	+0.714
E Wallace (Meath)	4	3	75%	+0.988
R Finn (Wicklow)	3	1	33%	-0.302
D Hayden (Wicklow)	3	1	33%	-0.383
J McGrath (Wicklow)	2	1	50%	+0.248
B Meade (Meath)	2	1	50%	+0.048
S Bray (Meath)	2	0	0%	-0.770
P Byrne (Meath)	2	0	0%	-0.873

Laois V Meath

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Return Vs Expected
Laois	34	30	88%	16	53%	+2.11
Meath	32	23	72%	13	57%	-0.49
avg	38.5	27.6	71.7%	13.9	50.4%	0.00

Allowances can be made for the low level of possessions given the conditions that afflicted this game. With that in mind Justin McNulty will be happy with his team’s body of work in Tullamore. When Laois had the wind in the first half they built a good lead with Strong, Munnelly & Quigley all landing points from outside the 45m line.

A note of caution however has to be struck. Yes this was a very good win for them however it is unlikely that they will have a Shot Rate of 88% again this Summer. Given that a Success Rate on their shooting of just about average will probably not suffice against the better teams. The positive Expected Return on their shooting can probably all be attributed to the three points from outside the 45m line – their shooting outside that was average. If, as we expect, they don’t maintain the very high shot rate they will have to be more accurate with their shooting.

From play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
Laois	24	13	54%	+2.53
Meath	11	4	36%	-0.92
avg	20.5	9.2	44.9%	0.00

From deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
B Farrell (Meath)	10	8	80%	+0.70
S Bray (Meath)	1	1	100%	+0.24
J Sheridan (Meath)	1	0	0%	-0.51
C Kelly (Laois)	3	1	33%	-0.50
MJ Tierney (Laois)	2	1	50%	-0.41
R Munnelly (Laois)	1	1	100%	+0.49
team avgs	7.2	4.8	66.2%	0.00

Laois are more physical than in previous years however they will need to get their tackling under control against Dublin.

Laois only coughed up 4 scores from play however they offered up 11 shots from frees (Sheridan’s deadball was a 45). If their tackling is not more disciplined (or de we say it cynical so that they don’t foul in scoring range) then they will be in trouble against Dublin. Although we have seen the Dublin forwards take a collective day off previously – vs. Wexford – it is hard to see them only scoring 4 times from play. Laois cannot afford to give away 9 points from deadballs again this Summer.

In the Dublin-Meath game I commented on how only getting 17 shots from play was poor for a forward line with the talent of Meath. This game was no better. Whilst the traditionalists laud Meath for their long ball approach it is plainly not working for them at present. In two games they have gotten less shots off than average and their Success Rate on the shots they did get off was poor as well. If Banty survives into 2013 they will need to review their gameplan.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
R Munnelly (Laois)	5	4	80%	+1.88
P Clancy (Laois)	5	2	40%	-0.06
C Begley (Laois)	3	1	33%	-0.32
G Reilly (Meath)	2	1	50%	+0.17
B Quigley (Laois)	2	1	50%	+0.11
S Bray (Meath)	2	0	0%	-0.71
B Farrell (Meath)	2	0	0%	-0.82
J O’Loughlin (Laois)	2	0	0%	-0.96

Dublin V Meath

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Return Vs Expected
Dublin	38	26	68%	15	58%	+1.87
Meath	35	26	74%	14	54%	-1.66
avg	38.5	27.6	71.7%	13.9	50.4%	0.00

I was surprised at the relatively good returns produced by this game. The game appeared to have a bit of an uncontrolled edge to it – lots of misplaced balls, simple passes going astray etc.; the returns, showing just about average Shot Rates and above average Success Rates, would appear to give an indication of controlled accuracy.

Part of the answer to this dichotomy comes in the below average number of possessions. You would expect the relatively open nature of the game (contrast to Kerry V Tyrone) to produce a higher number of possessions. The relative lack of possessions shows the sloppiness that afflicted the game at times – neither team could make the ball stick up front often enough. Long direct balls were being intercepted, or punched away, on a frequent basis ensuring that the forwards didn’t get (enough) clean possession. When the ball did stick both teams used it effectively. It was the very end product – the shooting – that had a semblance of controlled accuracy.

From play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
Dublin	22	11	50%	+1.24
Meath	17	7	41%	-1.07
avg	20.5	9.2	44.9%	0.00

From deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
B Brogan (Dublin)	4	4	100%	+1.24
B Farrell (Meath)	8	6	75%	-0.73
J Sheridan (Meath)	1	1	100%	+0.14
team avgs	7.2	4.8	66.2%	0.00

That old nutshell – Dublin’s supporting cast. Bernard Brogan was back on song hitting 8 scores from 10 shots (including frees); the other 5 starting forwards however hit 3 from 10. The below table shows the returns of the 5 starting forwards (and Cluxton on deadballs) in each of the games Dublin has played to date

Game	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
Louth	27	14	52%	-0.24
Wexford	18	10	57%	+1.09
Meath	10	3	30%	-1.15

They are essentially average. Now with Bernard Brogan in the form he has shown in the Louth & Meath games this may well suffice. If the Wexford version of Bernard Brogan shows up – or even an average version – then Dublin will struggle against better teams. Kevin McManamon is the one most likely to step up but Dublin supporters will be hoping that Sunday was an aberration. If McManamon is only taking two shots a game then the burden on Brogan will only intensify.

What of Meath? It’s very hard to determine anything concrete from the numbers. The fact that they were so far down for most of the game,and thus went for goal (4 shots, 1 goal) where others would have popped a point, definitely hurt their returns however they had a more fundamental problem in actually getting enough shots off. They only had 17 shots from play (average is 21). Dublin did foul a bit more than average when they got the ball inside however with natural strikers of the ball like Farrell, Sheridan & Reilly you would want more than 17 shots from play.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
B Brogan (Dublin)	6	4	67%	+1.11
G Reilly (Meath)	6	3	50%	+0.25
P Flynn (Dublin)	3	0	0%	-1.01
E O’Gara (Dublin)	3	2	67%	+0.70
B Farrell (Meath)	3	1	33%	-0.59
A Brogan (Dublin)	2	2	100%	+1.14
K McManamon (Dublin)	2	1	50%	+0.14
J Sheridan (Meath)	2	0	0%	-0.79
MD Macauley (Dublin)	2	0	0%	-1.08