Kildare V Meath 2014 Championship

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Kildare 45 35 78% 17 49% +0.945
Meath 41 34 83% 18 53% +2.378
Champ (’12 & ’13 avg) 35.8 27.6 77.2% 14.1 51.0%

Stats eh. From the below we will see that Kildare “won” the kickout battle, were much better than Meath at converting the turnover ball they won into shots and basically had the same shooting performance from play as Meath. But this game was effectively over from the 40th minute when Meath went 12 points up.

1st 40 minutes

Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Kildare 22 15 68% 7 47% -0.611
Meath 30 27 90% 15 56% +2.378

You can see from the above that up until that 40th minute interval Meath were phenomenal converting 90% (!!) of their attacks into shots and converting those shots at a well above average 56% of the time. Considering that 7 of those 27 shots were for goals their statline when attempting points was a phenomenal 13 from 20 (65% Success Rate) with a weighting of +3.2286.

Kildare on the other hand only converted 68% of their attacking possessions to shots. So whilst there has been considerable focus on Kildare’s defensive set up they were having difficulties getting shots off up the other end as well.

Of the 7 attempts at goal Meath scored 2-00; Kildare had 4 and scored 0-03. Meath had their 7 before Kildare attempted one however – indeed they had 6 in the first half.

Shots from Play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Kildare 29 13 45% +0.609
Meath 28 13 46% +0.268
Champ avgs (’12 & ’13) 20.3 9.2 45.4%

Outside of their 6 shots at goal (the 7th was the penalty) Meath had a statline of 12 from 22 (55% Success Rate) with a weighting of +1.712 when shooting for a point. Considering that their main shooter from last year, Graham Reilly, only had three shots that’s an excellent return.

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
A Tormey (Meath) 3 3 100% +1.448
P O’Rourke (Meath) 3 2 67% +0.661
P Fogarty (Kildare) 6 4 67% +0.336
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ) 7.3 4.9 66.7%

Excellent deadball accuracy from Meath considering that their main protagonist last year, Newman, was not on the field. The only miss was from a free outside the 45 at a tight angle from the right hand side. Indeed Kildare’s defensive discipline in this aspect was very good – only conceding four frees within shooting range and none of them in prime position – it was just that Meath’s ball striking was excellent.

Kevin Reilly was excellent however he gave away the free for four of Kildare’s six shots from deadballs. Obviously you don’t want to take the physicality of his game away however in a tighter game such frees may all too easily relieve pressure building up on the opposition.

Kickouts

Kildare’s kickouts Won % Turned into a possession % Shot %
Kildare 18 72% 13 72% 10 56%
Meath 7 28% 7 100% 5 71%
Meath’s kickouts Won % Turned into a possession % Shot %
Kildare 13 43% 11 85% 9 69%
Meath 17 57% 12 71% 10 59%

Ostensibly Kildare won the kickout battle. They won 72% of their own kickouts and gained 5 extra shots.

Meath went short on four occasions so when their kickout was contestable (beyond the 45) the split was 50:50. Given the power, height and sheer physicality of Meath in that sector Kildare will have been happy with that outcome.

Turnovers

Team “coughing up” possession # turnovers Shots from Turnovers %
Kildare 24 11 46%
Meath 23 15 65%

 

Misplaced Pass Tackled Shots not going dead Mishandled possession Fouled ball
Kildare 14 4 4 0 2
Meath 12 8 2 1 0

Two things here from a Meath perspective. Firstly they “only” converted 46% of their turnovers to shots. We have seen that Dublin are in the mid 70% range for this so to stay with Dublin in the final they will have to take every chance that comes their way.

The second is just how many times they lost the ball in the tackle – seven different players lost the ball on eight separate occasions. The majority of these turnovers were from one tackler as well. Although none of these occurred in their defensive third of the pitch it may not matter against Dublin given their high shot rate from turnovers – Meath will need to mind the ball better.

Kildare “gave” the ball away on 15 occasions in the first half but at least 8 could be considered on the very poor side with five (!!) hand passes going astray as well as a sideline ball and two close in shots that were blocked. Only two of these specific eight turnovers resulted in a Meath shot but the fact that they occurred at all showed up the entire poor first half display.

Shot Charts
Again we see the “left hand side syndrome” rearing its head. Of their 28 shots from play Meath only attempted one from sector6 (left between the 20m & 45m). Kildare attempted three – less than 9% of all shots came from “wide left”. By comparison 13 (28% of all shots) shots came from Sector4 “wide right”.

Kildare’s shooting
Kildare shooting (V Meath)

Meaths’s shooting
Meath shooting (V Kildare)
x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play

Players with >= 2 shots from play

I would guess that McDonagh’s weighting is quite out of line with what most people would expect. He had four attempts at goal and converted one – twice he was denied in the one move by a very good double save from Donnellan whilst the Kildare keeper also denied him in the opening minutes.

On top of the fact that he missed his two attempts at a point (one from Sector8 in front of goal) he does not get any benefit for winning the penalty – the weighting measures shots only.

Stephen Bray hit 4 from 4 when going for points – his only miss being the attempt at goal he dragged wide on the near post in the first half.

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
A Smith (Kildare) 6 2 33% -0.457
D McDonagh (Meath) 6 1 17% -1.697
S Bray (Meath) 5 4 80% +1.261
T Moolick (Kildare) 5 2 40% -0.171
P O’Neill (Kildare) 4 3 75% +1.497
D Carroll (Meath) 4 2 50% +0.439
J Wallace (Meath) 4 1 25% -0.618
E Callaghan (Kildare) 3 3 100% +1.717
P Fogarty (Kildare) 3 2 67% +0.717
A Tormey (Meath) 3 2 67% 0.586
G Reilly (Meath) 3 1 33% -0.210
N Kelly (Kildare) 2 1 50% +0.158
S O’Rourke (Meath) 2 1 50% -0.134
K Cribbin (Kildare) 2 0 0% -0.924
S Hurley (Kildare) 2 0 0% -1.068
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