Dublin V Meath 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Dublin 47 39 83% 17 44% -1.550
Meath 35 28 80% 14 50% -0.9566
2012 avg 35.28 27.02 76.6% 13.96 51.67%

A mixed bag from Dublin with very high levels of Possessions & Shots – second in both categories just behind their own performance against Westmeath – but poor shooting as evidenced by a Success Rate of 44%.

The poor Dublin shooting cannot be attributed to excellent Meath defending (though one sector did prove resilient – more of that anon) as there was pressure on only 55% (15 /27) of Dublin’s shots which is below what the top teams would produce. Dublin’s radar just happened to be off centre.

Meath’s returns are in line with the average but this is skewed somewhat by the final 10 minutes when they were chasing the game. After the second goal Meath had eight possessions but only got a shot off with four of them and only scored on one.

Prior to that period Meath had a Shot Rate of 89% and a Success Rate of 54% – their shooting was excellent and it was this, combined with Dublin’s profligacy, that allowed them to stay as close as they did, for as long as they did, whilst Dublin enjoyed such numerical advantage in terms of possessions & shots.

Shots from Play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Dublin 27 10 37% -1.383
Meath 20 9 45% -0.4108
2012 team avgs 20.14 9.36 46.5%

After the opening salvo of 1-01 Dublin went approx. 30 minutes in the first half taking nine shots from play and scoring once. Yes they did come out in the second half and improve – Conversion Rate of 45% from 15 shots – but as the competition hots up you will not be able to get away with such long periods of profligacy.

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
S Cluxton (Dublin) 7 3 43% -0.347
P Mannion (Dublin) 2 2 100% +0.429
B Brogan (Dublin) 2 1 50% -0.403
D Rock (Dublin) 1 1 100% +0.155
M Newman (Meath) 8 5 63% -0.546
2012 team avgs 6.88 4.6 66.9%

There were quite a number of shots at goal from deadballs. This is probably more an indicator of both team’s confidence in their long-range strikers than a side effect on the game itself. Remove 45s and shots from 40m or greater and the total volume drops to twelve.

Newman recovered well after missing the first two frees to convert five from five – the final miss was a shot at goal from the 21m line when Meath were chasing goals. The fact that the last free was so close to goal means that his weighting was severely affected – we cannot yet give a weighting to shots for goal from a free as I would say I have recorded less than 5 in total; instead it is treated as any normal free – remove this and he had an above average day.

Cluxton’s returns were below average. Yes he hit three nice scores from the 45m line but he also missed another 3 from the same range. Those 6 more or less even themselves out leaving the missed free out on the right hand side. Not a bad day – not a good day either.

Shot Charts
It is quite noticeable how much Dublin favoured the right hand side when shooting. Drawing an imaginary line up from the left parallelogram Dublin only took six shots from play from outside this line – and missed all six. It wasn’t just one player either – McManamon, Kilkenny, Brogan and Flynn all missed.

There was no evidence of this bias in the Westmeath game so whilst accepting it could just be random chance I would be inclined to attribute this lack of shooting to Meath’s right hand side defence.

Dublin’s shooting

Dublin shooting

Meath’s shooting

Meath shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts
Dublin-Meath kickouts

A very even battle overall but perhaps slightly surprising splits given the nature of the commentary after the game. Meath were praised for how they managed the Dublin kickouts but this may be a case of first impressions lasting. Meath won possession on the first four of Dublin’s kickouts however only won possession on 19% (3/16) of the remainder.

In their previous game against Wexford (see here) we noted how the Meath kickout was fairly predictable but that this fact alone did not necessarily make it easy to defend. So it was in this game. 89% (24/27) of O’Rourke’s kickouts went long – passed the 65m line – whilst 67% (18/27) went down the middle … yet Meath won possession on a healthy 59% of their own kickouts.

Players with >= 2 shots from play
Much praise was, rightly, heaped on Kilkenny for his performance but Mannion was excellent as well.

Reilly & Byrne had a combined Success Rate of 69% (11 from 16) against Wicklow & Wexford but only managed 2 shots against Dublin.

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
C Kilkenny (Dublin) 6 3 50% +0.350
P Mannion (Dublin) 4 3 75% +1.340
M Newman (Meath) 4 3 75% +0.624
E Wallace (Meath) 4 2 50% +0.060
S Bray (Meath) 4 2 50% -0.057
D Connolly (Dublin) 4 1 25% -0.648
P Flynn (Dublin) 3 2 67% +0.797
J Sheridan (Meath) 2 1 50% +0.146
D Rock (Dublin) 2 1 50% +0.140
C Lenihan (Meath) 2 0 0% -0.680
B Brogan (Dublin) 2 0 0% -0.692
J McCaffrey (Dublin) 2 0 0% -0.770
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