Dublin V Mayo 2013 All Ireland final

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	40	27	68%	14	52%	+0.9029
Mayo	39	27	69%	15	56%	-1.519
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

This was a one point game and as such you would not expect much between the teams. The possession count was very similar whilst both teams had the same number of shots. Mayo had a better conversion rate which would indicate that they were sharper shooters on the day however the weighting suggests this was far from the case. Stats eh?

Firstly the possessions; closer than you thought whilst watching the game? It surprised me. One of the reasons for this was how slow Dublin started. Immediately prior to Brogan’s first goal Mayo led the possession battle 13-5. They were dominant taking ten shots to Dublin’s three and leading 0-05 to 0-01.

Of course the corollary to that is Dublin won the possession battle 35-26 from there on in and took 24 shots to Mayo’s 17. It is the prolonged period of Dublin dominance we (or rather I) remember rather than the game as a whole.

Back to the shooting. Mayo’s Success Rate was better than Dublin’s however their weighting was quite negative. How can Dublin have one less conversion than Mayo, plus three extra misses, yet come out with a better weighting? The answer is in the type of shot both teams took.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	22	11	50%	+1.6895
Mayo	16	7	44%	-0.6913
2012 team avgs	20.14	9.36	46.5%

We will deal with the deadball shooting in more detail below however Mayo only converted two shots from play from outside the 20m line. These two shots both came from Sector5 – directly in front of goal. Their converted shots were not difficult and therefore the weighting for these shots was not able to cancel out the negative weighting for their misses (nine in total; four inside the 20m line and five outside).

Contrast this with Dublin. They had essentially the same Conversion Rate as Mayo but they hit some majestic points. In the second half alone Andrews, Flynn, Brogan & Brennan all hit wonderful shots with three of the four coming from the wings. Dublin’s scores were more difficult and able to make up for their misses.

Another way that Dublin’s weighting was helped was in their shots at goal. They took five in total scoring on three (O’Gara’s shot ended up being a point). Over time we have discovered that shots at goal are converted much less than shots for points therefore the weighting takes this into account – you are better rewarded for converting the harder shots and not penalized for missing as much.

Dublin had more shots at goal whilst Mayo did not attempt enough ‘difficult’ point attempts. The type of shot had a big bearing on why Mayo had a better conversion rate than Dublin but ultimately were less efficient.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
S Cluxton (Dublin)	3	2	67%	-0.393
B Brogan (Dublin)	1	1	100%	+0.155
D Connolly (Dublin)	1	0	0%	-0.548
C O’Connor (Mayo)	10	8	80%	-0.528
R Hennelly (Mayo)	1	0	0%	-0.300
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

The average number of shots at goal from deadballs in a game is 13.8 so whilst 16 is on the high side it is by no means outlandish. There were 15 in the 2012 All Ireland final.

In that 2012 decider Mayo only gave up 6 scoreable dead balls – they went one better here only offering up Dublin five kicks at goal; this against a team that were averaging nine shots at goal from deadballs prior to the final. Mayo’s tackling has been excellent all year and held up under the pressure.

O’Connor scored eight frees, and was the main reason that Mayo were able to stay with Dublin in the second half, yet he had a poor outing by his own lofty standards. How so? O’Connor, with Cluxton & the two Donegal snipers, is the best deadball striker over the past two years. The eight frees he converted were all very simple (six from in front of the posts) and any free taker, let alone a pre-eminent one like O’Connor, would be expected to make them.

The problem arises from the two he missed. The first is excusable as it was very tight to the touch-line on the 20m line (there is an argument as to whether, given the chance of success, teams should have a short kick routine ready for such scenarios – but I digress) however the second was from Sector 5 straight in front of the posts. On average that free kick is converted 85% of the time. The eight he converted were cancelled out by that miss weighting wise.

Dublin will not care but giving away eleven shots from deadballs was poor. A crude and effective way to protect the lead no doubt but as a unit not one I imagine they’ll review too often.

Shot Charts
Just to re-emphasis some of the points mentioned above. Look at Mayo’s second half attempts (white = 1st half, black = 2nd half) – very conservative with not one attempt from play from outside the 20m line.

Dublin’s shooting

Mayo’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

The above table shows the importance both teams placed on winning primary possession. 86% of all kickouts were won by the team taking the kickout. Part of the argument for going shorter with kickouts, and thus securing possession, is what happens when you don’t. Of the six kickouts lost by the team taking the kickout 5 were turned into an attacking possession whilst 50% were turned into a shot. Only 38% of those kickouts won on your own kickout were turned into a shot.

The overall shot rate for the game, at 68%, was low and thus the conversion of kickouts won to shots is also going to be low. Dublin however did perform better here getting nine shots off from the twelve possessions they had as opposed to Mayo’s five from twelve.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Moran had an absolutely superb display for Mayo. Apart from scoring 1-02 he was also directly responsible for winning two frees that O’Connor converted.

In the two years that this blog has been up and running Bernard Brogan has probably been highlighted more than any other player. It is only right that we highlight how good a game he had on the biggest stage. He had seven shots in total, scoring 2-03 and his first goal, whilst Mayo were dominant, was *the* key turning point in the game.

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
B Brogan (Dublin)	6	4	67%	+1.428
C Kilkenny (Dublin)	5	0	0%	-2.023
A Moran (Mayo)	4	3	75%	+1.148
L Keegan (Mayo)	3	2	67%	+0.718
E O’Gara (Dublin)	2	2	100%	+1.146
G Brennan (Dublin)	2	1	50%	+0.137
P Andrews (Dublin)	2	1	50%	+0.050
K Higgins (Mayo)	2	1	50%	-0.157
K McLoughlin (Mayo)	2	0	0%	-0.758
C O’Connor (Mayo)	2	0	0%	-1.258

FINAL NOTE

Much has been made of how the game ended. Below are the timings

73:27 Free given (Varley has ball in hand)
73:36-73:39 O’Connor gets ball in hand (camera had panned away for exact timing)
73:45 O’Connor talks to ref
74:01 Ref blows whistle
74:09 Shot taken
74:32 Kickout & final whistle

In the NFL there is a “book” that tells coaches the optimum strategy for when to for a 2pt conversion after a touchdown or when to go for it on 4th and short versus taking a field goal. In the off season some team needs to develop something similar for GAA managers.

We saw how Cork bungled the ending of the Munster final (here) and whilst I would not be as critical of Mayo they still should have known what was required. Two points down in injury time with an easy free – its not that unlikely a scenario and the timings of all the components (length of time to take a free, length of time to take a kickout, chances of winning possession, shot rate from possession, conversion rate from shot) are generally known. I have sympathy for Mayo in that the conversation was between O’Connor and the ref, so the bench was blind in a sense, but even looking at what had to go right post taking the point the instruction should have come in to take the goal shot

Dublin V Mayo All Ireland Preview

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Mayo & Dublin is the final that most people wanted. They have consistently been the two best teams this year and most pundits are struggling to separate them. Given the expected closeness we prise open some elements to see if either team has that crucial advantage that will see them over the line.

Attacking Possession

The below table shows the averages for both team’s five Championship games in 2013. The view of Dublin being an offensive juggernaut is borne out by the fact that they have averaged 45 attacking possessions a game. The 2012 average was 35. This average does not hide any poor performances either – all five games have been above average with returns of 49,46,47,44 and 39.

	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	45.0	37.2	83%	19.4	52%	1.4892
Mayo	43.2	33.8	78%	19.0	57%	1.2990

What we mustn’t do however is sleep on Mayo as an attacking threat. Their five game average of 43.2 is impressive in its own right and again all five games have been above average. Their weighting is slightly below Dublin but nothing that would indicate Dublin have a large advantage in terms of shooting prowess.

What seperates the two teams, in an attacking sense, is what they do with the ball in an attacking position. Dublin have a better Shot Rate than Mayo, gaining on average an extra 3.4 shots per game, however their accuracy lets them down. If a team performs to the average then 3.4 shots should equate to an extra 1.7 scores however Dublin are only outscoring Mayo by 0.2 scores.

There is very little difference in the two team’s accuracy when going for a point. Mayo score on 51% of their shots compared to Dublin’s 50%. Instead Dublin’s accuracy “issues” stem from their relative lack of composure when going for goal. They have had 36 shots on goal but only converted 31%. Mayo on the other hand has had 21 attempts at goal converting a very healthy 57%.

Of course both team’s defences will have a say in how the forward lines operate. To that end below are the averages for their respective opponents in those games

	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin opponents	33.4	25.2	75%	12.2	48%	-0.539
Mayo’s opponents	30.4	24.4	80%	10.6	43%	-1.994

When compared to the offensive outputs the opposite is true of the defences. As can be expected given the generally open nature of their games Dublin allow the opposition three more attacking possessions than Mayo do however it is the Dublin defence that limits the number of shots that emanate form these possessions.

So Dublin are better at preventing shots however Mayo’s opponents had a much lower Success Rate and Weighting. Was this due to Mayo’s defending or a general lack of quality on the opposition’s part? There are two possible ways of measuring this. The first is the percentage of shots that the opposition took under pressure and the second is where they allowed shots from.

Mayo’s defence applied pressure to 60% of all the shots for a point rising to 62% for all shots. Dublin’s defence applied pressure to 49% of their opponent’s attempts at a point dropping slightly to 48% for all shots.

Sector	% all Shots	weighting		% all shots	weighting
1-3	3%	-0.818		3%	-0.409
4&6	34%	-2.11		31%	-4.204
5	25%	-3.06		23%	-0.668
7&9	23%	-0.480		27%	+2.266
8	15%	-1.423		17%	+2.606

Note Mayo’s returns are the two columns on the left; Dublin’s the two on the right

Both teams’ defences have quite similar profiles when it comes to where they allow their opponents to shoot from. What is interesting though is that in the better scoring zones (sectors 5 & 8) Mayo’s opponents perform much worse. It is of course possible that their opponents were just poorer shooters than Dublin’s opponents however I would ascribe the differences to the different set ups. Mayo provide support for the defence thus enabling them to pressure more shots. Dublin on the other hand tend to leave their defenders on an island.

The positive returns for Dublin’s opponents in close lend credence to this view.

Shooting Tendencies

Despite the fact that their overall Success Rates are quite similar when going for a point is there anything in the detail that separates them?

	Shots	% of all Shots	Success Rate		Shot	% of all Shots	Success Rate
inside 20m	51	45%	51%		40	38%	55%
20m – 45m	63	55%	49%		65	62%	49%

Note Mayo’s returns are the three columns on the left; Dublin’s the three on the right

Mayo take more of their shots closer to goal; 45% of all their shots versus Dublin’s 38%. Generally this is a good thing as being closer to goal ensures more accuracy however Dublin have a better Success Rate closer in (55% versus 51% for Mayo). Worse again for Mayo only 45% of those shots inside 20m came under pressure; 63% of Dublin’s were taken under pressure.

Both teams’ have similar Success Rates from outside the 20m line. Again Dublin’s shooting has faced more pressure in these positions; 45% of these shots were taken under pressure versus 41% for Mayo shots.

So whilst the overall conversion rates slightly favour Mayo the details show that they have faced less pressure taking their shots and have also missing more close in. Fine margins they may be but it is in the detail that this game will be won or lost.

Deadball striking

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
C O’Connor	12	12	100%	+2.798
Rest of Team	22	14	64%	-2.483
Mayo Total	34	26	76%	+0.315
S Cluxton	22	14	64%	+2.727
B Brogan	11	9	82%	-0.120
Rest of Team	12	7	58%	-1.982
Dublin Total	45	30	67%	+0.625

To date Mayo has had a distinct advantage in deadball (frees & 45s) striking when viewed by Success Rate. They have converted 76% of their deadballs with O’Connor converting all of his 12 attempts to date. If however O’Connor is unable, for whatever reason, to take responsibility for Mayo’s deadball striking then their advantage disappears. Although Freeman stepped up against Kerry, converting four from five, the team outside of O’Connor has only converted 64% and has quite a negative weighting. They have missed some very easy frees.

Dublin has converted 67% of all their deadballs but what Cluxton has been excellent at is converting 45s. Cluxton has converted 73% of Dublin’s 45s (8 from 11) thus usually negating an excellent defensive play from the opposition. Of course the corollary to this is that Dublin’s free taking has not been as good in comparison. In the 5 games they have only converted 65% of their frees with Mannion only hitting two from six from the left.

See the appendix for a breakdown of Player returns

Kickouts
One of the most interesting battles on Sunday will be the kickout battle. Dublin is acknowledged as the leaders in how to control the kickout and to date they have won possession on 69% of their own kickouts. This is quite high however Mayo has secured possession on 78% of theirs.

Kickout tendencies

	Mayo	Dublin
Short	41%	29%
Medium	27%	46%
Long	32%	25%

Part of this high possession rate is Mayo’s strength around the middle, with the O’Shea brothers patrolling and McLaughlin roaming, however their strategy also has a part to play. If a team takes a large portion of its kickouts short then it can be expected to “win” the kickout battle. Mayo has taken 41% of all their kickouts short as opposed to 29% for Dublin.

Shot Rate for Possession on own kickouts

	Mayo	Dublin
Short	55%	57%
Medium	48%	64%
Long	50%	50%

When converting those possessions to shots Dublin is a step ahead. Dublin converted 58% of all the possessions from their own kickouts to shots versus Mayo’s 52%. The main difference, as can be viewed in the above table, is when Dublin hit medium length kickouts (between the 20m & 45m lines). Two thirds of the time when Dublin gain the ball in this area they get a shot off.

To date Mayo has faced 38 kickouts in this area and have only given up nine shots (24%). This is the kickout battle. Dublin like to ping kickouts between the 20m & 45m lines. They are excellent at getting shots from here. Mayo however has shown that they can stop you from getting shots from this area. Can they do the same to Dublin?

APPENDIX
Players with >= 8 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
B Brogan (Dublin)	25	8	32%	-2.527
D Connolly (Dublin)	21	8	38%	-0.689
C Kilkenny (Dublin)	20	11	55%	+1.040
C O’Connor (Mayo)	14	8	57%	+1.542
E Varley (Mayo)	14	7	50%	+1.337
P Mannion (Dublin)	14	7	50%	+1.155
A Dillon (Mayo)	14	7	50%	+0.233
A Freeman (Mayo)	12	8	67%	+2.068
P Flynn (Dublin)	12	7	58%	+2.208
L Keegan (Mayo)	11	7	64%	+1.143
D Coen (Mayo)	11	4	36%	-0.660
D Rock (Dublin)	8	6	75%	+3.088
P Andrews (Dublin)	8	6	75%	+2.513
A Moran (Mayo)	8	4	50%	+0.460
K McLoughlin (Mayo)	8	3	38%	-1.618

Dublin V Kerry 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Just a quick note re the numbers. Like Kevin Reilly’s goal for Meath McMahon’s point is not included in the below numbers as it was not a shot.

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	39	32	82%	20	63%	+5.1973
Kerry	30	25	83%	14	56%	+1.3633
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

Dublin’s shooting was superb and the weighting is second only to Mayo’s demolition of Donegal. All aspects of their shooting were above average but to have a Success Rate of 63% on so many shots is quite remarkable (Mayo had a Success Rate of 64% on 21 shots).

Kerry’s shooting was also good, with their shooting from play being very good, however the volume of possessions is what cost them in the end. In the first half the split of possessions was Dublin 18 Kerry 19. The second half? Kerry had 11 (!) and Dublin 21.

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin – 1st half	18	14	78%	9	64%	+1.6278
Kerry – 1st half	19	15	79%	8	53%	+0.791
Dublin – 2nd half	21	18	86%	11	61%	+3.5695
Kerry – 2nd half	11	10	91%	6	60%	+0.5723

Dublin were excellent in that second half but if Kerry could have only maintained an average pace in the second half they may well have put Dublin to the sword.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	27	16	59%	+5.2151
Kerry	20	11	55%	+1.9375
2012 team avgs	20.14	9.36	46.5%

The shooting from play was a joy to behold and the performances were the highest combined in any game.

Dublin’s weighting was built on two main aspects. The first was their conversion rate when going for goal – six shots resulting in four scores (3-01). The second was their exceptional point taking out the field. At a high level c41% of all shots taken from play between the 20m & 45m lines are converted. Dublin converted a phenomenal 63% (8 from 13).

Brogan had 5 such shots (from play between the 20 & 45m lines) converting four of them. He missed closer in whilst going for goal but it was great to see him at his natural point scoring best.

Kerry for their part had a very good day as well however they were in some ways the mirror image of Dublin. They only converted 13% (1 from 8) of the shots they took outside the 20m line. There was no one culprit with six separate players shooting and missing from this range.

Of course what that means is that to have such a good overall weighting they were deadly accurate inside the 20m line. They scored 2-08 on twelve shots but perhaps more interesting for the upcoming final is that despite being that close to goal Dublin only pressurised 42% (5 of 12) of those shots.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
B Brogan (Dublin)	3	2	67%	-0.447
D Connolly (Dublin)	1	1	100%	+0.274
S Cluxton (Dublin)	1	1	100%	+0.159
C Cooper (Kerry)	3	2	67%	-0.338
J O’Donoghue (Kerry)	1	1	100%	+0.609
J Buckley (Kerry)	1	0	0%	-0.845
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

The first point to note is the relative lack of shots at goal from deadballs. The 2012 average was just below 14 a game; we had a relatively small 10 in this game.

Part of the reason for this was Cooper’s influence on Kerry in the first half. I counted three times that a Kerry player was fouled in and around the 45m line where most teams would have put the ball down and let their long-range free taker have a shot. Instead Cooper took a quick free that ultimately resulted in 1-02 for Kerry.

Though there were no spectacular individual returns Kerry will be disappointed with the timing of their two misses. Both Cooper & Buckley missed straight forward frees in the last ten minutes of the first half when they could have easily stretched their lead.

Kerry’s deadball striking has been something the blog has keyed in on previously. They were poor up until the last two games where they hit 93% (17 from 18) however the two misses, Buckley’s especially, show that the issue has not gone away.

Shot Charts

The shot charts highlight the aforementioned mirror image of the two team’s shooting outside the 20m line. Yes Kerry had seven less shots but they did have their chances.

Dublin’s shooting

Kerry’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

Looking purely at the volume of kickouts won you would be excused for thinking that Kerry did very well against the much vaunted Dublin strategy. They basically broke even. However dig a little deeper and you will find that Dublin did indeed win the strategic battle.

From the possessions immediately gained from the kickouts Dublin managed to get five extra shots. Considering that Dublin had seven extra shots in total their kickout successes were a major part in ensuring they had the volume of shots to overcome Kerry.

Kerry went short on nine of their kickouts (32%) gaining possession on eight (the ninth was kicked out over the sideline but no damage was done). Surprisingly Kerry only managed to get two of those eight possessions into Dublin’s 45m line. They got a shot off from both.

As a comparison Dublin went short on eleven (48%) of their kickouts gaining possession on ten. Of the ten six ended up being a possession and again all six resulted in a Dublin shot.

Even though Dublin eventually let in a goal from the one short one that went awry they still managed to get four more shots off from the possession directly from short kickouts.

Players with >= 2 shots from play
A quick comparison of Dean Rock versus the three starting full forwards over the last three games

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
B Brogan	13	4	31%	-1.253
D Rock	7	5	71%	2.248
P Mannion	6	4	67%	+1.549
P Andrews	3	1	33%	-0.149

It is becoming a bit of a band wagon to call for Rock to start in the final but the numbers do confirm what the eye indicates.

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
B Brogan (Dublin)	8	4	50%	+0.586
J O’Donoghue (Kerry)	5	4	80%	+1.278
Declan O’Sullivan (Kerry)	4	1	25%	-0.418
D Connolly (Dublin)	3	3	100%	+1.723
D Rock (Dublin)	3	2	67%	+0.959
C Cooper (Kerry)	3	2	67%	+0.851
P Galvin (Kerry)	2	2	100%	+0.905
K McManamon (Dublin)	2	1	50%	+0.320
C Kilkenny (Dublin)	2	1	50%	+0.296
D Walsh (Kerry)	2	1	50%	+0.230
P Andrews (Dublin)	2	1	50%	+0.230
P Mannion (Dublin)	2	1	50%	+0.151
Darran O’Sullivan (Kerry)	2	1	50%	-0.095

Mayo V Tyrone 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Mayo	42	34	81%	17	50%	-2.173
Tyrone	30	25	83%	13	52%	+0.3425
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

Both team’s Shot Success Rates were quite similar however Tyrone just did not have enough shots. Mayo’s poor weighting shows that they had a propensity to miss easier chances (McLoughlin & Varley missed frees come to mind) but Tyrone took nine less shots. There was just no overcoming that level of a deficit without Mayo’s shooting imploding.

In their four games prior to this Mayo had averaged 34 shots a game whilst Tyrone allowed 23.5. For Tyrone to proceed they were always going to have to ‘manage’ Mayo’s shot count and though they were ahead for the majority of the 1st half they never really did that

	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Mayo 1st half	20	16	80%	6	38%	-2.685
Mayo 2nd half	22	18	82%	11	61%	+0.513

It was more Mayo’s accuracy, than their shot count, that kept Tyrone ahead in that first half. Once their accuracy picked up they started to pull ahead.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Mayo	23	10	43%	-1.148
Tyrone	18	10	56%	+2.241
2012 team avgs	20.14	9.36	46.5%

Tyrone’s shooting from play was much better than Mayo’s – at the risk of repeating myself they just did not have enough shots.

No one player dominated the shooting from either team with Varley’s four shots topping the returns. Whilst his radar was off Dillon, Barrett & Keegan’s were very much on.

The spread of shooters between the teams was quite similar with 13 from Mayo, and 12 from Tyrone, taking a shot.

Coming in to the game Mayo’s shooting had only faced pressure on 38% of shots. In this game Tyrone pressurized 61% of Mayo’s shots (14 of 23) which will be a factor in the poor weighting.

Conversely the Mayo defense had pressurised 67% of all their opponent’s shots from play but only pressurised 44% (8/18) of Tyrone’s shots.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
A Freeman (Mayo)	5	4	80%	+0.493
K McLoughlin (Mayo)	2	1	50%	-0.671
E Varley (Mayo)	2	0	0%	-1.502
R Hennelly (Mayo)	1	1	100%	+0.500
C O’Connor (Mayo)	1	1	100%	+0.155
D McCurry (Tyrone)	4	2	50%	-0.838
S Cavanagh (Tyrone)	3	1	33%	-1.060
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

Deadball striking is possibly one area of concern for Mayo heading into the final. O’Connor, including this game, was 100% (12 from 12) from deadballs.

Prior to last year’s final I was worried about Mayo’s free taking from the right hand side. Since then McLoughlin had stepped up hitting 100% in the three Connacht championship games (6 from 6) however he has hit two terrible frees, one against Donegal & one from basically in front of the goal here. After that miss Varley stepped up as the left footed free taker however he missed his two attempts.

A bright note for Mayo was Freeman’s free taking. Stepping up unexpectedly he scored an excellent penalty as well as slotting three from three on frees. His only miss was a 45 with the last kick of the game.

In a two game stretch against Meath & Kildare McCurry & Cavanagh hit 89% between them (16 from 18). Tyrone could have really done with some of that accuracy here. Either side of the goal both McCurry & Cavanagh missed frees that Tyrone really needed to keep tabs with a resurgent Mayo.

In a game where they had nine less shots Tyrone could have really done with the Meath/Kildare output rather than the 43% return (3 from 7, weighting – 1.898) they had here.

Shot Charts

Mayo’s shooting

Tyrone’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

The volume of kickouts won is a stat that becomes less meaningful the more short kickouts there are. 41% (20 of 49) of all kickouts in this game were short with only one not resulting in the kickout team gaining possession.

Mayo had 11 short kickouts and were very successful with them – they managed to get a shot seven times (64%) from the possession that ensued. Tyrone on the other hand only managed to get three (33%) shots from their nine short kickouts whilst also conceding a shot to Mayo on the one that went astray.

When the kickouts went past the 45m line Mayo were dominant on their own kickout winning possession on 70% (7 from 10) whilst put Tyrone under pressure on theirs. On Tyrone’s non short kickouts Mayo won possession on 53% (10 from 19)

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
E Varley (Mayo)	4	1	25%	-0.741
D McCurry (Tyrone)	3	2	67%	+0.938
A Dillon (Mayo)	3	2	67%	+0.420
A Freeman (Mayo)	3	1	33%	-0.103
C Barrett (Mayo)	2	2	100%	+1.215
C McAliskey (Tyrone)	2	2	100%	+1.173
L Keegan (Mayo)	2	2	100%	+0.891
S Cavanagh (Tyrone)	2	1	50%	+0.230
C McGinley (Tyrone)	2	1	50%	-0.159
C Clarke (Tyrone)	2	0	0%	-0.723
M Conroy (Mayo)	2	0	0%	-1.196

Donegal V Mayo 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Donegal	28	21	75%	10	48%	+1.2382
Mayo	49	33	67%	21	64%	+6.0737
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

Mayo’s weighting is, by far, the best return of any team.

An easy argument to make is that, with the game over as a contest quite early, there was no pressure on Mayo. They argument being that they were able to shoot at will however the weighting does take the game situation into account. Any scores, achieved whilst in front, are treated less favourably than those achieved whilst chasing a lead.

Another element that helps the weighting is that they took so many shots at goal. Mayo took nine shots for goal, converting four, but because they went for goal the misses are not treated as severely.

With all that said Mayo’s shooting was just simply immense.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Donegal	15	6	40%	+0.5445
Mayo	29	18	62%	+5.5951
2012 team avgs	20.14	9.36	46.5%

As stated above excellent shooting from Mayo. They had nine shots at goal, converting the four, but more impressive was their 70% strike (14 from 20) rate when attempting shots for points. When the game was there to be won, in the first half, Mayo hit a whopping 80% (8 from 10) when going for points.

Interestingly Mayo’s shooting was worse in the second half, when there was less pressure both mentally & physically. Of their ten shots in the first half Donegal pressured six; of Mayo’s ten shots in the second half Donegal only pressured three but Mayo converted two less.

Donegal’s weighting is just above average but, like all their previous games, they just didn’t take enough shots. Also whilst Mayo were streaking ahead the little bit of pressure Donegal could have applied was squandered as they only converted one of their first six shots from play.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
C O’Connor (Mayo)	3	3	100%	+1.027
K McLaughlin (Mayo)	1	0	0%	-0.548
M Murphy (Donegal)	6	4	67%	+0.694
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

A quiet enough day which is in no small part due to the uncompetitive nature of the game for 50 minutes.

McLaughlin hit a very poor free at the start of the second half however that was the first one he has missed in this year’s Championship. O’Connor was again excellent and is now 100% this year (11 from 11).

Murphy had a good day from deadballs but it is a testament to the Mayo defense that McFadden never had a shot.

Shot Charts
Donegal’s shooting

Mayo’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

Donegal had 14 kickouts in the first half with Mayo winning possession on eleven of them. Donegal found it incredibly hard to get out of their own half, breaching the Mayo 45 a mere ten times in the first half. It was from this position of strength that the platform was laid for Mayo’s first half attacking onslaught.

Players with >= 2 shots from play
Another excellent day from O’Connor whilst Dillon’s two points in the first half were very good and shows that his shooting performance against London was just a blip (he only attempted ne shot which was missed).

Perhaps more impressively from a Mayo standpoint is that nine players had only one shot with seven converting, This has echoes of the confidence flowing through Donegal’s game last year when the likes of McLoone, Thompson & McGlynn were aiding the front three.

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
C O’Connor (Mayo)	5	4	80%	+1.819
M McHugh (Donegal)	3	2	67%	+0.959
A Dillon (Mayo)	3	2	67%	+0.883
C McFadden (Donegal)	3	1	33%	-0.033
M Murphy (Donegal)	3	1	33%	-0.033
A Moran (Mayo)	3	1	33%	-0.252
L Keegan (Mayo)	3	1	33%	-0.252
A Freeman (Mayo)	2	2	50%	+0.804
K McLaughlin (Mayo)	2	1	50%	+0.066
P McBrearty (Donegal)	2	0	0%	-0.680
D Coen (Mayo)	2	0	0%	-0.748

Cavan V Kerry 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Cavan	33	24	73%	9	38%	-2.893
Kerry	37	26	70%	15	58%	+0.9985
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

Excellent accuracy from Kerry converting 58% of their shots however there was a real divide in their shooting from play (39%) and their deadball shooting (100%). Their Shot Rate was low, which may be in part due to a lacklustre second half (it was 89% in the Munster final), but if it were to be repeated against Dublin it would put huge pressure on the accuracy as they attempt to keep pace.

Cavan’s shooting was poor but not as poor as the weighting would suggest. They got penalised very harshly for Mackey’s attempted blast with the last kick of the ball but still they had the chances to put Kerry under more pressure than they did.

The difference can be summed up in a cameo between Buckley & Reilly. Buckley had two 45s and a free in quick succession in the first half – he slotted all three enabling Kerry to build a lead. Reilly similarly had a long-range free and two 45s in quick succession in the second half as Cavan chased the lead. He converted one.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Cavan	15	4	27%	-1.828
Kerry	18	7	39%	-1.492
2012 team avgs	20.14	9.36	46.5%

Pretty poor returns all round.

Of the 18 shots that Kerry took Walsh accounted for six of them. That left 12 further shots spread out amongst ten different players. The five remaining forwards had combined returns of three from seven (Conversion Rate 43%; weighting -0.4805) … given the expected volume of shots that Dublin will bring Kerry will either need to up how many shots their marquee forwards take or their accuracy is going to have to increase greatly.

Although Cavan had enough shots to be closer to Kerry their two main men, Dunne & Keating, only had four shots with Dunne converting one.

Whilst Kerry went on their nine point unanswered run in the first half they took 14 shots compared to Cavan’s two. Cavan were simply over run for that period and were never able to adequately make up the deficit despite their resurgence in the second half. As an aside Kerry did something similar to Cork towards the end of the first half in the Munster final; they led the shot count 11-2 for the last 15 minutes of that half.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
C Cooper (Kerry)	5	5	100%	+0.972
J Buckley (Kerry)	3	3	100%	+1.518
E Keating (Cavan)	3	2	67%	+0.05
M Reilly (Cavan)	3	1	33%	-0.499
N McDermott (Cavan)	2	2	100%	+0.330
C Mackey (Cavan)	1	0	0%	-0.944
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

In the 2012 Championship, and the 2013 League Kerry had problems from deadballs

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
’12 Champ	29	17	59%	-4.76
’13 League	21	12	57%	-3.708

In the last two games those problems have disappeared with Kerry converting 8 from 8 in this game and 7 from 8 in the Munster Final (combined conversion rate of 93%). Part of this is sample size, part is the natural ebb and flow of form but perhaps in this case part can also be attributed to a change in kicker. Whilst only one game Buckley’s long range performance was, much like Cluxton for Dublin, the pillar on which Kerry’s early lead was built upon.

If we excuse Mackey’s blast at goal towards the end then Cavan’s shooting from frees & 45s was average.

Shot Charts
Cavan’s shooting

Kerry’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

Kerry fairly well lorded their own kickouts winning possession from 90% of them. They went short on 55% (11 of 20), securing all of them, however won the possession battle 7-2 when they went past the 45m line as well. They got a shot off from 45% (5/11) of their short kickouts and 43% (3/7) of the long to medium kickouts they won.

Although there was not much difference in returns mixing up the kickouts does ensure that Dublin cannot key on any one facet. Against Cork Kerry only went short once out of 24 … by varying the tactic in this game it gives Dublin something extra to think about.

Cavan went short on 54% (13 of 24) of their kickouts. The messed up the first one but got a shot off on seven of the remainder. When Cavan went long they actually lost the possession battle 4-7 giving Kerry four shots and only managing one themselves.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
D Walsh (Kerry)	6	3	50%	+0.089
E Keating (Cavan)	3	0	0%	-1.175
D Givney (Cavan)	2	1	50%	+0.185
N McDermott (Cavan)	2	1	50%	+0.185
Declan O’Sullivan (Kerry)	2	1	50%	-0.093
Darran O’Sullivan (Kerry)	2	0	0%	-0.761

Cork V Dublin 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Cork	34	26	76%	14	54%	+1.7699
Dublin	44	35	80%	17	49%	+0.1543
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

Cork’s metrics were average except for the weighting … such a positive weighting on average Shot Rate & Success Rates indicate the difficulty of some of the shots they converted (think of O’Rourke’s monster punt from outside the 45).

For the second game in a row Dublin’s weight of possession (44 here, 47 against Meath) and shots (35 here, 39 against Meath) meant that they could overcome below average Success Rates to prevail. Given that Cluxton had such a super day from deadballs it is evident that Dublin’s shooting from play must have been poor to return an average weighting overall. More on that below.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Cork	19	9	47%	+0.8208
Dublin	25	10	40%	-1.203
2012 team avgs	20.14	9.36	46.5%

A lot of Dublin’s negative return here can be placed on their inability to convert goal chances. They had seven shots for goal with McCaffrey’s effort, as well as Flynn’s blazed shot over the bar in the first half, the only returns. In the last two games they have had a combined 13 shots for goal converting 23% (3/13).

Dublin’s shooting for points was just about average – converting 44% of their shots (8 from 18). For this and the Meath game combined the Success Rate for point taking is running at 41% (15 from 37). In those two games Brogan’s Success Rate is 0% (0/5) and Connolly’s 20% (1/5). On the other end of the scale Mannion is 75% (3/4) whilst Dean Rock in his limited time has also hit 75% (3/4).

Much has been made of Dublin’s missed goal chances but Cork themselves had six shots for goal only managing to come away with two points as Hurley & Goulding blasted over in the second half.

Cork’s shooting in the first half, whilst sparse, was deadly accurate. They only attempted five shots from play in the first 30 minutes converting all five. Cork then had 5 attempts at scoring in two separate attacks just before half time but didn’t manage to convert any. But for two excellent blocks from the Dublin backs, with some very poor shooting at the most inopportune time for good measure, Cork may have been able to absorb McCaffrey’s early goal. Ifs, buts and maybes but Cork did expose the Dublin back line and give Kerry something to work with.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
S Cluxton (Dublin)	8	6	75%	+1.928
B Brogan (Dublin)	1	1	100%	+0.155
P Mannion (Dublin)	1	0	0%	-0.726
D Goulding (Cork)	3	3	100%	+1.027
D Cahalane (Cork)	3	1	33%	-0.520
M Collins (Cork)	1	1	100%	+0.442
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

Cork did reasonably well in ensuring they only gave away two frees in close to goal however discipline further out the field, and Dublin’s bombardment of the goal ensured Cluxton had the chance for a field day. Which he duly did.

Cluxton’s performance was immense. None of his attempts were within 40m and though the two he missed ensures his weighting is below Cavanagh’s performance against Meath it was still the bedrock on which Dublin’s win was achieved.

Obviously Cork will know who their best striker of a ball is but it was still strange to see Cahalane have three long range attempts in the first half given the quality of free taker at Cork’s disposal. The decision didn’t seem any less strange after Goulding popped over a 45 in the second half.

Shot Charts
Cork’s shooting

Dublin’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

Given that Cork had control of 62% of all kickouts it is telling that Dublin managed to create 10 more shots from all the kickouts.

Usually when you see a 13:5 ratio of wins to the kickout team it is because they have gone short on the majority of kickouts thus ensuring possession. Not Dublin. They only went short on two kickouts instead having Cluxton pop expertly directed balls to players running into space. What was particularly good here was that the converted the vast majority (85%) into attacking possession.

We expect this level of accuracy and execution from Dublin on their own kickouts but what did they do to Cork’s kickouts? Given the options Cork had in the diamond (Walsh, O’Connor, O’Neill, Canty) it is reasonable to expect that they should be able to pinpoint match ups in their favour. Instead Dublin got 5 more shots from Cork’s kickouts than Cork did. This had been flagged – in the Munster final Kerry got 4 more shots on Cork’s kickouts.

The first port of call for most observers is to blame the goalkeeper’s accuracy but that’s not applicable here as the goalkeeper changed between the Kerry (O’Halloran) and the Dublin game (Quirke). Instead I think Cork began to believe in the core strength of that middle third and when presented with an opposition that not only identified it, but set about dismantling it, were unable to respond.

Dublin attempted to break the ball at every opportunity thus negating the physical power of the Cork middle third. There was not one Dublin high fetch from Cork kickouts. Once the ball was on the ground they were ready and able to pounce – the fact that this was a team wide tactic is evidenced by the fact that every time Dublin got the ball back into the Cork 45 they got a shot off. Everybody was ready to spring into action from the predicated breaking ball.

Players with >= 2 shots from from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
B Hurley (Cork)	5	3	60%	+0.469
D Connolly (Dublin)	5	0	0%	-2.11
C Kilkenny (Dublin)	4	2	50%	-0.251
D Goulding (Cork)	3	2	67%	+0.712
C Sheehan (Cork)	3	1	33%	-0.177
B Brogan (Dublin)	3	0	0%	-1.147
P Flynn (Dublin)	2	2	100%	+1.166
D Rock (Dublin)	2	2	100%	+1.149
M Collins (Cork)	2	1	50%	+0.218
J McCaffrey (Dublin)	2	1	50%	+0.217
MD MacCauley (Dublin)	2	1	50%	-0.007
P Kerrigan (Cork)	2	0	0%	-0.815

Monaghan V Tyrone 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Monaghan	25	20	80%	12	60%	-1.561
Tyrone	40	32	80%	14	44%	+1.281
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

To sum it up – Monaghan’s use of possession and shooting was every bit as good, if not better, than Tyrone’s. They just didn’t have enough of the ball. They had possession of the ball inside Tyrone’s 45 a full ten times less than the average.

Whilst Tyrone’s shooting was below average it was the volume of shots that ensured they kept Monaghan at arms length. Although both teams finished with 14 men Monaghan had a numerical advantage for the first 12 minutes of the second half. During that time Tyrone had four more possessions (9-5) and two more shots (7-5). Monaghan just didn’t drive home their advantage.

Not sure where to comment on Cavanagh’s rugby tackle however his discipline whilst on the yellow was immense. Twice thereafter he stopped Monaghan running attacks by getting an arm in from behind; against Clerkin (49:50) & Wylie (56:18). Juxtapose this with the widely held view that Darren Hughes’ yellow card negated his ability to mark Cavanagh.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Monaghan	14	6	43%	+0.1082
Tyrone	25	10	40%	-0.7239
2012 team avgs	20.14	9.36	46.5%

For Tyrone there were wonderful contributions from that man Cavanagh (3 from 5; weighting +0.884) and two beautiful points from Joe McMahon (2 from 2; weighting +1.202). McMahon has played as a sweeper against Meath & Kildare which meant he didn’t attempt a shot from play in either game. With Monaghan not posing as great a threat (the numbers in the first table bear this out) he was able to come up the pitch and reminded us just what a threat he is when he pushes forward.

After his exploits against Donegal Kieran Hughes was well marshalled with Tyrone only allowing him one shot – which he duely converted. McManus hit two peaches from the right hand side towards the end of the first half but also missed all three from the left. Clerkin (1 from 4) and Clarke’s (1 from 5) wayward shooting cancelled each other out.

Looking ahead Tyrone have to be concerned about their ability to keep up with a free scoring Mayo. In the last three games their full forward line has converted a combined 14% (2 from 14; weighting of -3.905). They are only taking, on average, just over 1.5 shots each per game – and taking very poor ones at that.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
S Cavanagh (Tyrone)	4	2	50%	-0.896
D McCurry (Tyrone)	3	2	67%	+0.059
C McManus (Monaghan)	4	4	100%	+0.817
P Finlay (Monaghan)	3	2	67%	+0.356
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

Excellent again from McManus. In the three games we have for Monaghan this year his aggregate is 91% (10/11) with a combined weighting of +1.909. You really can’t ask for much more from your free taker.

After hyping up Tyrone’s deadball feats (see here) against Meath & Kildare they then of course throw in a comparative stinker! There were mitigants however; McCurry’s missed free was from the sideline and whilst the chances of success were low it would be hard to argue against an in form free taker having a go. Cavanagh’s two misses were from c35m-40m out whilst the second was in sector4 (the “wrong” side for a right footed free taker) after McCurry was substituted. Still the numbers don’t lie – his day was well below average.

Shot Charts

Monaghan’s shooting

Tyrone’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

A contrast in kickout styles. Monaghan went past the 45m line on 82% (23 of 28) of their kickouts  but only had a +1 differential on shots – they got six shots from those 23 kickouts whilst Tyrone got five. Monaghan’s remaining two shots came from short kickout possessions.

Tyrone by contrast went short on 63% 12 of 19) of their kickouts. They botched one of those giving Gollogly a great goal chance that he blazed over but of the other 11 they got the ball into Monaghan’s 45 nine times and managed to get six shots off.

Players with >= 2 shots from from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
S Cavanagh (Tyrone)	5	3	60%	+0.884
C McManus (Monaghan)	5	2	40%	-0.036
C Clarke (Tyrone)	5	1	20%	-1.516
D Clerkin (Monaghan)	4	1	25%	-0.448
Mattie Donnelly (Tyrone)	4	1	25%	-0.495
Joe McMahon (Tyrone)	2	2	100%	+1.202
C McGuinness (Monaghan)	2	1	50%	-0.121
S O’Neill (Tyrone)	2	0	0%	-0.670

Mayo V London 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Mayo	46	34	74%	16	47%	-0.9318
London	31	24	77%	10	42%	-0.4077
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

Watching the game I had expected the Mayo returns to be worse than they were

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Mayo	29	11	38%	-2.084
London	14	3	21%	-3.386
2012 team avgs	20.14	9.36	46.5%

Very poor from Mayo. Their conversion rate for shots for points was 29% (7/24) and of the 17 that were missed ten had no pressure applied.

There was obviously a level of complacency around the Mayo attack but the concern would be whether this performance has them right for a quarter final.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
C O’Connor (Mayo)	4	4	100%	+1.097
K McLaughlin (Mayo)	1	1	100%	+0.0.56
L Mulvey (London)	7	6	86%	+0.073
S Kelly (London)	2	1	50%	-0.284
D Traynor (London)	1	0	0%	-0.481
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

Very good from O’Connor scoring 1-03 from 4 chances in the second half.

Mulvey got all the frees he was expected to get. His six conversions came from Sectors 5 & 8 with his only miss being the one shot from an angle in Sector6.

Shot Charts
Mayo’s shooting

London’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

Won’t someone think of the London goalie – 35 kickouts!

It might come as a surprise that London won more of their own kickouts. Mayo won seven of London’s first ten but thereafter London started to mix it up and gained a foothold. This was again aided by them going short on eight kickouts.

Players with >= 2 shots from from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
D Coen (Mayo)	5	1	20%	-1.279
C O’Connor (Mayo)	4	2	50%	+0.305
L Mulvey (London)	4	1	25%	-0.834
K McLaughlin (Mayo)	4	1	25%	-1.341
A Freeman (Mayo)	3	3	100%	+1.413
A O’Shea (Mayo)	3	0	0%	-1.230
R Feeney (Mayo)	2	1	50%	+1.076
L Keegan (Mayo)	2	2	100%	+0.743
D Dunleavy (London)	2	1	50%	-0.121
C Daly (London)	2	0	0%	-0.680
E Varley (Mayo)	2	0	0%	-0.750
C Magee (London)	2	0	0%	-0.854
P Geraghty (London)	2	0	0%	-0.980

Meath V Tyrone 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Meath	35	27	77%	11	41%	-2.5623
Tyrone	37	33	89%	17	52%	+0.7507
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

Tyrone produced an excellent Shot Rate with it being well into the second half before they had a possession that didn’t result in a shot. Their shooting was quite good – as evidenced by an above average weighting on an average Success Rate – however there was quite a disparity between their shots from play and those from deadballs.

Very poor returns from Meath with only Wallace & Bray scoring from play. Goals at the start of either half kept them in touch but like Kildare the previous week Tyrone used their deadball accuracy to ensure they stayed just that step ahead.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Meath	15	5	33%	-1.2162
Tyrone	22	6	27%	-2.8206
2012 team avgs	20.14	9.36	46.5%

That is one set of ugly numbers.

For two weeks in a row Tyrone have been lacklustre in front of goal, averaging a poor 32% (12 from 37) from play. Their returns in this game were hampered somewhat by attempting three shots at goal but not converting any – as ever the positive spin will be that they are creating the chances.

Outside of the excellent Wallace Meath converted one of their eleven shots from play – a paltry 9%. Graham Reilly was in excellent shooting form in the opening two games, scoring eight points from a mere eleven shots. In the subsequent games against Dublin & Tyrone he had one shot in each. His role in the team obviously changed to suit however in 2014 Meath may be best served by ensuring he bears more of the shooting burden.

A quick note on Séan Cavanagh. He has had two excellent outings against Kildare & Meath but his accuracy from play has been just below average. For the two games combined he has converted 37.5% (3/8). This does not diminish his overall performances but is a further indicator of Tyrone’s dependence on him – he has taken more shots than O’Neill & Penrose combined. From midfield.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
S Cavanagh (Tyrone)	6	6	100%	+2.652
D McCurry (Tyrone)	5	4	80%	+0.919
M Newman (Meath)	11	6	55%	-0.846
P O’Rourke (Meath)	1	0	0%	-0.500
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

An absolutely superb day from Tyrone converting 91% (10/11). In the past two games their conversion rate is 81% (17/21; weighting of +2.833). Better still Cavanagh’s is 100% (9/ 9; weighting +3.128).

Prior to this display no player had received a weighting greater than 1.6; Cavanagh smashed that with a return of +2.652. He was able to do so given the relative difficulty of the shots he converted … his six frees all came from Sector 6 – on average those kicks are converted a little over 50% of the time.

McCurry also had a fine game from deadballs only missing the one 45. As a combination they have now converted a remarkable 89% (16/18) in the last two games. They are now performing at an equivalent level to Murphy & McFadden last year.

Monaghan were average against Donegal in giving away 6 frees within shooting range – they will want to maintain this discipline in the quarter-final. Tyrone has taken 9 shots (17 frees & 1 penalty) a game from deadballs against Kildare & Meath.

Newman’s deadball day was average. It is perhaps telling of the impression he has made that this comes as somewhat of a disappointment. His weighting gets hammered for missing a free from Sector8 despite the fact it was a desperation attempt at a goal … that aside he got the frees he was expected to get and didn’t convert enough of the higher tariff ones (three frees outside the 45 – converting one of them).

Shot Charts

Meath’s shooting

Tyrone’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

Meath won possession from the first four kickouts but the contest settled down thereafter.
Just under a quarter of all kickouts went short (11/45) with a shot emanating from 73% (8/11) – from all other kickouts there was a shot from 47% (16/34) of possessions gained from a kickout.

Meath messed up a short kickout early in the game, handing Tyrone an easy point, however in the long run it may be more profitable for teams to work the possession through short kickout routines than risk the opponent gaining a shot through 50:50 kickouts.

Players with >= 2 shots from from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
E Wallace (Meath)	5	4	80%	+1.726
S Cavanagh (Tyrone)	5	2	40%	+0.045
D McCurry (Tyrone)	4	1	25%	-0.930
Mattie Donnelly (Tyrone)	3	2	67%	+0.438
S Bray (Meath)	3	1	33%	-0.021
J Sheridan (Meath)	2	0	0%	-0.776
C Cavanagh (Tyrone)	2	0	0%	-0.795
B Farrell (Meath)	2	0	0%	-0.837
C McGinley (Tyrone)	2	0	0%	-0.866