For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here
|Team||Possessions||Shots||Shot Rate||Scores||Success Rate||Weighting|
|Champ (’12 & ’13 avg)||35.8||27.6||77.2%||14.1||51.0%|
Lies, damned lies & statistics. Read a certain way you could justifiably argue that Antrim’s shooting was as good as Donegal’s. They “just” happened to have 35% less attacking possessions and 42% less shots.
That is obviously being facetious but if Bradley is looking for some positives from the game then that is not a bad place to start. Their deadball accuracy was well above average and whilst they didn’t have enough shots from play, when they did shoot, against what is generally considered a ferocious defence, there were positive signs.
As for Donegal? This is a very different return from them than we are used to seeing. They generally have a low volume of possessions (last 5 championship returns were 33, 28, 31, 34 & 29) but an excellent Success Rate thus eeking out the very most from what attacking ball they have. Here they had average Success Rates but on a lot of attacking ball.
Shots from Play
|Champ avgs (’12 & ’13)||20.3||9.2||45.4%|
Thirty two shots from play. Thirty two! For Donegal! Again the last 5 Championship returns were 18, 15, 14, 11 & 12.
Within those thirty two shots were five attempts at a goal with a stat line of 4 from 5 (although he went for goal McLoone still got a point) and a weighting of +1.663. The remaining 27 attempts for a point returned a Success Rate of 44% with a weighting of -0.019. Donegal were basically average when shooting for points.
For a team that has placed such emphasis on high Success Rates this will concern Donegal – and it is not a case of poor shooting once the pressure was off in the second half. The first half stat line when shooting for points was 38% (5 from 13) and a weighting of -0.482.
In the Derry game commentary it was noted that the big three of Murphy, McFadden & McBrearty had not performed (2 from 8 for a 25% Success Rate & a weighting of -1.734) but that they were unlikely to be as poor again.
Yeah about that … they produced an almost identical return here (2 from 8 for a 25% Success Rate and a weighting of -1.899). For reference in their 6 games on the run towards Sam in 2012 those three players combined for 39% of all Donegal’s shots from play with a Success Rate of 42%.
In their stead the likes of MacNiallais, O’Conner, McLoone & Toye all had good games. There is a bit of the “rock & hard place” about this. You want your marquee forwards to fire but when they don’t others must pick up the slack. That has happened twice so far for Donegal – can the big three turn it around in the final?
Shots from deadballs
|M Murphy (Donegal)||5||2||40%||-0.803|
|C McFadden (Donegal)||1||1||100%||+0.160|
|B Neeson (Antrim)||4||3||75%||+0.519|
|T McCann (Antrim)||3||2||67%||+0.356|
|P Cunningham (Antrim)||1||1||100%||+0.453|
|team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ)||7.3||4.9||66.7%|
A surprisingly “weak” performance from Donegal’s dynamic duo. Granted Sunday’s performance was one long range free away from being average (Murphy hit 1 from 4 balls around the 45) but in 2012, when Donegal powered to the All Ireland, those long range frees were going over. That year they were hitting a combined 78%, let alone average.
I am always blinded by Donegal’s performance against Cork in the 2012 semi final when it comes to their defensive discipline. In that game they gave away one free within scoreable range and whilst it’s unrealistic to expect a repeat every game that is the standard they have set for themselves. Here they gave away seven frees within range which, when viewed as a percentage on the volume of attacks, is a free on 22% of Antrim’s forays into the 45.
Now part of this can be attributed to defending against goal shots in the second half but still – against a team with more attacks this percentage cannot (and in all likelihood will not) be maintained.
|Antrim’s kickouts||Won||%||Turned into a possession||%||Shot||%|
|Donegal’s kickouts||Won||%||Turned into a possession||%||Shot||%|
Donegal were hugely efficient on their own kickouts because Antrim employed a strategy, in the main, of “letting” Donegal gain possession on short kickouts and only engaging meaningfully on their own 45.
We missed where two of Donegal’s kickouts landed but 9 of the remaining 17 went short with Donegal getting 7 shots from the possessions on those short kickouts. Of the other 8 that were contestable (ball landed outside the 45) Antrim won the possession battle 5-3 with both teams getting 3 shots each from those possessions.
Having a strategy of allowing teams to have short kickouts and engaging them with a defensive set up is fine but you must ensure the opposition cannot get shots off. Those extra bodies back have to have a positive impression on what the opposition does. Antrim would have been better pressing up the pitch and forcing Durcan to kick longer.
You can lose the opposition’s kickouts and it may not be detrimental to your team’s overall prospects as long as you manage your own kickouts. This didn’t happen for Antrim. From this vantage they appeared to have a gameplan of banging the ball straight down the middle to McKeever and hoping he would win high ball. Of their first 20 kickouts 14 went long.
Superficially it worked for Antrim in the first half. Of the 9 long kickouts in that half they won the battle 6-3. However Donegal got a shot from the three that they did win scoring 0-02. Antrim only got one shot from their six wins and didn’t score from it. Counting who won the kickout would lead you to believe that Antrim’s strategy was working. Go one step further and you could tell that it could spell trouble. And it did.
At the start of the second half Antrim persisted with the strategy. 5 of the first 7 went long. Antrim won the first one and got a point. Donegal won the next three, hemmed Antrim in with three shots scoring 1-01 and the game was done.
|Team “coughing up” possession||# turnovers||Shots from Turnovers||%|
|Misplaced Pass||Tackled||Shots not going dead||Mishandled possession||Fouled ball|
Low levels of overall turnovers as both teams were relatively good at maintaining whatever kickout possession they won. What turnovers they did garner was poorly transferred to attack by Donegal.
Donegal received the ball inside their own 45 twelve times but only converted two of these to attacks.
So that conspiracy theory about the big teams not shooting from the left – forget about it. Donegal hit 13 shots from the left with average results (5 from 13 for 38% Success Rate and a weighting of +0.100
Players with >= 2 shots from play
|O MacNiallais (Donegal)||6||4||67%||+1.232|
|C McFadden (Donegal)||5||1||20%||-1.682|
|L McLoone (Donegal)||4||3||75%||+1.166|
|D O’Connor (Donegal)||3||3||100%||+1.759|
|C Toye (Donegal)||3||2||67%||+0.783|
|D Molloy (Donegal)||3||2||67%||+0.735|
|M Sweeney (Antrim)||2||2||100%||+1.215|
|C Murray (Antrim)||2||1||50%||+0.281|
|M Murphy (Donegal)||2||1||50%||+0.142|
|P McCann (Antrim)||2||1||50%||+0.124|
|P Cunningham (Antrim)||2||0||0%||-0.776|
|R McHugh (Donegal)||2||0||0%||-0.776|
|B Neeson (Antrim)||2||0||0%||-0.776|