Dublin V Wexford 2014 Championship

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	56	45	80%	27	60%	+3.215
Wexford	33	27	82%	13	48%	+0.330
Champ (’12 & ’13 avg)	35.8	27.6	77.2%	14.1	51.0%

The Dublin machine rolls on. Their consistent brilliance this year can mask just how phenomenal the numbers are. In near on 100 games no team had breached 50 attacking possessions – Dublin’s last four games this year (Cork & Derry in the league SF & final, Laois and Wexford) have produced 54, 57, 51 & 56. In four games they have averaged 54.5 attacking possessions – that is a full 52% more than the 2013 Championship average. Simply breath taking.

Allied to the volume of possessions their Shot Rate has been above average for those four games – 83%, 82%, 82% and 80% here – which means that they have had 62% more shots over that 4 game span than the 2013 average. 62%!

On top of all that Dublin’s shooting topped 60% for the first time. They were simply irresistible in this game

Their defence has fluctuated more than the offence; in the aforementioned games Dublin have allowed a shot rate of 80%, 69%, 75% & 82%. Against Kildare Meath’s shot rate was running at 90% 5 minutes into the second half – they may well have to produce something similar for longer if Dublin maintain their attacking output.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	37	19	51%	+1.225
Wexford	23	9	39%	-1.059
Champ avgs (’12 & ’13)	20.3	9.2	45.4%

Three of Dublin’s first six shots from play were attempts at goal (all Mannion). This is par for the course with Dublin however their ardour cooled thereafter with only two more attempts at goal (both converted). This left a goal to point attempt ratio of 1:6 – which is much lower than their usual 1:3.

An arbitrary point granted but until Costello was introduced all was not rosey in Dublin’s attacking garden. They had a Success Rate of 32% (6 from 19) with a weighting of -2.903.

Thereafter Dublin maintained a Success Rate of 72% (13 from 18) with a weighting of +4.236 including a closing sequence of 1-08 from their last ten chances.

Now this is not all as a result of the introduction of Costello but indicative of how their substitutes bench has helped them close out the last two games. In those games the subs are a combined 19 from 24 shots (Success Rate of 79%) with a weighting of +6.693. Ridiculous output – even against tiring teams.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
D Rock (Dublin)	4	4	100%	+0.639
C Costello (Dublin)	2	2	100%	+0.655
S Cluxton (Dublin)	1	1	100%	+0.500
D Connolly (Dublin)	1	1	100%	+0.087
B Brosnan (Wexford)	3	3	100%	+1.157
C Lyng (Wexford)	1	1	100%	+0.232
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ)	7.3	4.9	66.7%

Whilst the deadball striking may not have been as spectacular as some of the attempts we have seen this year (Morgan, Beggan et al) it was deadly effective. Six different players combined for 100% accuracy (12 from 12) with a weighting of +3.269. You cannot ask for more.

From their two games in the Championship to date Dublin are a combined 88% (14 from 16 – the only two misses were two Cluxton 45s) with a weighting of +2.434. What might be more impressive is the ease with which they appear to be able to change free takers. Rock came on for a cameo against Laois and hit 3 from 3. He was faultless here but Costello then came off the bench and slotted his two frees very easily.

Kickouts

Dublin’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into a possession	%	Shot	%
Dublin	16	89%	13	81%	11	69%
Wexford	2	11%	0	0%	0	0%
Wexford’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into a possession	%	Shot	%
Dublin	19	50%	18	95%	15	79%
Wexford	19	50%	12	63%	9	47%

(note that we completely missed one Dublin kickout – when the cameras panned back Wexford had the ball but it is unknown if this was from the kickout or a turnover once Dublin had controlled the kickout)

A tale of two kickouts strategies – Dublin absolutely dominated their own. Truly dominated.

Wexford on the other hand broke even on theirs but the manner of the kickout meant that whatever ones they lost were effectively turned into attacking possessions by Dublin. What is perhaps surprising is that Wexford continued to kick contestable balls – only four of their 38 kickouts went short.

Turnovers

	Team “coughing up” possession	Shots from Turnovers	%
Dublin	28	15	53%
Wexford	29	19	65%

 

	Misplaced Pass	Tackled	Shots not going dead	Other
Dublin	9	9	6	4
Wexford	14	6	5	4

Surprising that the turnovers were much the same but again we see that Dublin are very good at converting those turnovers to shots. Wexford were ok in this regard and the fact that Dublin coughed up 9 turnovers in the tackle – and “allowed” Wexford get a shot rate of 53% – will give Meath (and Galvin !) something to work on.

Shot Charts

Dublin’s shooting

Wexford’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
P Mannion (Dublin)	7	3	43%	-0.423
C Costello (Dublin)	5	4	80%	+1.528
P Flynn (Dublin)	5	3	60%	+0.877
B Brosnan (Wexford)	5	3	60%	0.859
PJ Banville (Wexford)	4	3	75%	+1.075
E O’Gara (Dublin)	3	2	67%	+0.717
A Brogan (Dublin)	3	1	33%	-0.144
D Connolly (Dublin)	3	1	33%	-0.551
P McMahon (Dublin)	3	1	33%	-0.551
C Lyng (Wexford)	3	0	0%	-1.144
T Brady (Dublin)	2	2	100%	+0.875
K O’Grady (Wexford)	2	1	50%	+0.233
D Waters (Wexford)	2	1	50%	+0.094
J Holmes (Wexford)	2	1	50%	-0.134
MD MacAuley (Dublin)	2	1	50%	-0.207
A Flynn (Wexford)	2	0	0%	-0.719

Meath V Wexford 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Meath	35	30	86%	19	63%	+2.6226
Wexford	35	31	89%	13	42%	-0.3747
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

It was there for Wexford but this game was won by Meath’s superior Success Rather than lost by anything Wexford did/didn’t do. Having said that Meath’s high Success Rate is in no small way helped by Wexford continually fouling Meath forwards within Newman’s range.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Meath	19	10	53%	+1.4794
Wexford	23	8	35%	-3.074
2012 team avgs	20.14	9.36	46.5%

Good returns from Meath – and even more impressive if Stephen Bray’s off day is omitted. Removing Bray from the equation (theoretical I know as he did actually take the shots!) Meath’s returns would be; Success Rate of 75% (8 out of 12) and a weighting of +2.655

Wexford’s shooting was poor. Lyng, Brosnan & Barry produced basically average returns which meant that none were able to cover for Banville’s very poor day (converted 1 of 6 chances).

Not only will Meath be concerned with the volume of shots that they conceded but when Wexford were dominant in the first half Meath only got pressure on one of their opening eight shots. This did improve from midway through the first half where Meath managed to pressure 80% of the remaining shots but with Dublin on the horizon they will need to ensure this pressure is present from throw in.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
M Newman (Meath)	11	9	82%	+1.143
C Lyng (Wexford)	4	3	75%	+0.114
B Brosnan (Wexford)	4	2	50%	-0.787
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

Brosnan had a poor day as he missed a relatively simple free from in front of goal just before half time whilst Lyng was basically average as he also missed a simple enough free from the right on the 21m line.

Newman was excellent. A lot of frees were of the type that a good free taker would be expected to convert – the main point is that he did convert them. As a result his weighting makes this the 3rd best deadball performance in 2013 behind Murphy’s performance against Down & Goulding’s against Kerry.

Wexford’s discipline deserted them in the second half. Giving a team, that has as deadly a marksman as Newman in its ranks, 9 frees in a half is very poor. The argument is made that they were run ragged and chasing the game *but* seven of those frees came before the 60^th minute and they were never more than three points behind during that period.

Shot Charts
Meath’s shooting

Wexford’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

There’s not much sophistication in the Meath kickout strategy. They hit it long 95% of the time (21/22) and down the middle 73% of the time (16/22). As the above table shows however it worked for them as they got 6 more possessions and 5 more shots than Wexford from their own kickouts

They were equally adept on Wexford’s long kick outs as they won possession on 62% of those (8 out of 13). The problem in the Leinster final is that Dublin’s kickouts are a lot more sophisticated than hitting them long. On any Wexford kickout that did not go past the 65m line Meath only won possession on 17% (2 out of 12).

If Meath replicate this against Dublin then their own kickouts will be very predictable (though that does not necessarily mean Dublin can gain parity) whilst Dublin will have control over their own kickouts.

Players with >= 2 shots from play
Bray & Banville’s poor day was highlighted earlier but both Byrne & Reilly had excellent displays up front for Meath. In Meath’s two games to date he has converted 73% (8 from 11) with a combined weighting of +2.993

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
S Bray (Meath)	7	2	29%	-1.176
PJ Banville (Wexford)	6	1	17%	-2.026
G Reilly (Meath)	5	4	80%	+1.747
C Lyng (Wexford)	4	2	50%	+0.036
P Byrne (Meath)	3	3	100%	+1.728
B Malone (Wexford)	3	2	67%	+0.028
B Brosnan (Wexford)	3	1	33%	-0.111
A Flynn (Wexford)	2	1	50%	+0.140
E Wallace (Meath)	2	1	50%	-0.121

Dublin V Wexford

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Return Vs Expected
Dublin	36	30	83%	13	43%	-2.17
Wexford	41	32	78%	11	34%	-4.07
avg	38.5	27.6	71.7%	13.9	50.4%	0.00

I strongly considered just putting up the numbers for this game and skipping any commentary. I started the blog to try and put some flesh on the anaemic analysis of GAA out there – not to be a keyboard warrior slating teams/players. Let the numbers talk. Be objective not subjective.

And yet …. it is extremely difficult to find anything positive in those numbers. Between them Brosnan, Banville & the two Brogans scored on 7 of 32 shots. 22%!! This from the last two players of the year and one of the best shooters from last year’s Championship. I have no explanation.

One thing to note is the comparison in the possession and shot rates in this game compared to the Tyrone-Donegal game. Dublin are lumped in with Donegal when giving an example of a defensive team whilst in the absence of any stats I would hazard a guess that Wexford handpass the ball as much as either of the Northern teams. And yet there were 18% more possessions in this game and 38% more shots. Croke Park factor? Intensity? Shoot on sight versus work an angle philosophy?

From play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
Dublin	26	11	42%	-1.31
Wexford	24	9	38%	-0.88
avg	20.5	9.2	44.9%	0.00

From deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
B Brosnan (Wexford)	5	0	0%	-2.96
S Roche (Wexford)	3	2	67%	-0.23
B Brogan (Dublin)	2	1	50%	-0.70
S Cluxton (Tyrone)	2	1	50%	-0.16
team avgs	7.2	4.8	66.2%	0.00

In the Dublin-Louth review I indicated how Bernard Brogan carried Dublin in 2010 and how the supporting cast would need to step up to the plate. Luckily they did on Sunday with McManamon, Nolan, Cullen & Connolly (when he was on the pitch) all returning positive Expected Returns.

I’m willing to give Bernard Brogan a pass on his shooting from play – just look at his returns Vs Louth – however his deadball striking should be setting a few small alarm bells off. In the two games to date he has hit 40% (2 from 5). A combined Expected Return of -1.74, from just 5 shots, indicates how easy the frees he is missing are.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
Ben Brosnan (Wexford)	8	4	50%	+0.96
B Brogan (Dublin)	7	0	0%	-3.20
PJ Banville (Wexford)	6	1	17%	-1.50
K McManamon (Dublin)	5	4	80%	+1.49
A Flynn (Wexford)	5	2	40%	+0.02
A Brogan (Dublin)	4	1	25%	-0.68
D Connolly (Dublin)	3	2	67%	+0.48
R Barry (Wexford)	3	2	67%	+0.48
B Cullen (Dublin)	3	2	67%	+0.33
K Nolan (Dublin)	2	2	100%	+1.23

Longford Vs Wexford

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Return Vs Expected
Longford	29	22	76%	11	50%	-0.66
Wexford	38	29	76%	15	52%	+2.09
avg	41.8	28.3	67.7%	14.1	49.8%	0.00

The perceived wisdom was that Wexford had too many scoring forwards for Longford to handle. One of Lyng, Brosnan or Barry would step forward for the free scoring Yellowbellies and see them through.

The above table would seem to bear this out with Wexford having more chances and performing better in front of goal. This didn’t come come from the expected sources however. Apart from half-back Adrian Flynn (see player tables below) Wexford’s shooting was bang on average. Take out Flynn’s shooting, & Brosnan’s deadballs, and they would have an Expected Return of -1.14.

Longford’s shooting was poor. Like Wexford they had a “big three” up front in Kavanagh, McCormack & Paul Barden. However unlike Wexford one of them stepped up with Kavanagh scoring 4 points from 5 shots with an Expected Return of +1.94. Of course what this means is that the rest of the team had a derisory Expected Return of -2.60 between them.

From play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
Longford	17	8	47%	+0.11
Wexford	25	11	44%	+0.92
avg	21.1	9.3	44.0%	0.00

From deadballs

Players	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
B Brosnan (Wex)	3	3	100%	+1.11
C Lyng (Wex)	1	1	100%	+0.06
S McCormack (Long)	4	3	75%	-0.26
M Quinn (Long)	1	0	0%	-0.51
game avgs	7.3	4.8	66.5%	0.00

Excellent free taking from Wexford though if Longford want to progress in the replay they will have to improve on their deadball striking – especially given how few shots they actually take.

The above shows how disciplined the defences were by only giving away 8 “scoreable” frees. This is especially so of Longford when you look at the disparity in possessions.

Players with >= 3 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
A Flynn (Wex)	7	5	71%	+2.12
B Kavanagh (Long)	5	4	80%	+1.94
C Lyng (Wex)	5	2	40%	-0.03
S McCormack (Long)	5	1	20%	-1.13
P Barden (Long)	4	2	50%	+0.07
R Barry (Wex)	3	2	67%	+0.95
B Brosnan (Wex)	2	0	0%	-0.75
PJ Banville (Wex)	2	0	0%	-0.74
E Bradley (Wex)	2	1	50%	+0.10
N Mulligan (Long)	2	1	50%	+0.18

One point to note is the disparity in the volume of shooters. 82% of Longford’s shots from play came from their “big three” (Kavanagh, McCormack & P Barden) whilst 40% of Wexford’s shots from play came from Brosnan, Barry & Lyng.

To prevail in the replay Longford need Kavanagh to produce another excellent game, step up on their deadball shooting, stay disciplined in defence so that they don’t give Brosnan frees and ensure Wexford’s big three are as anaemic again. Simple!!