Dublin V Wexford

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Return Vs Expected
Dublin 36 30 83% 13 43% -2.17
Wexford 41 32 78% 11 34% -4.07
avg 38.5 27.6 71.7% 13.9 50.4% 0.00

I strongly considered just putting up the numbers for this game and skipping any commentary. I started the blog to try and put some flesh on the anaemic analysis of GAA out there – not to be a keyboard warrior slating teams/players. Let the numbers talk. Be objective not subjective.

And yet …. it is extremely difficult to find anything positive in those numbers. Between them Brosnan, Banville & the two Brogans scored on 7 of 32 shots. 22%!! This from the last two players of the year and one of the best shooters from last year’s Championship. I have no explanation.

One thing to note is the comparison in the possession and shot rates in this game compared to the Tyrone-Donegal game. Dublin are lumped in with Donegal when giving an example of a defensive team whilst in the absence of any stats I would hazard a guess that Wexford handpass the ball as much as either of the Northern teams. And yet there were 18% more possessions in this game and 38% more shots. Croke Park factor? Intensity? Shoot on sight versus work an angle philosophy?

From play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
Dublin 26 11 42% -1.31
Wexford 24 9 38% -0.88
avg 20.5 9.2 44.9% 0.00

From deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
B Brosnan (Wexford) 5 0 0% -2.96
S Roche (Wexford) 3 2 67% -0.23
B Brogan (Dublin) 2 1 50% -0.70
S Cluxton (Tyrone) 2 1 50% -0.16
team avgs 7.2 4.8 66.2% 0.00

In the Dublin-Louth review I indicated how Bernard Brogan carried Dublin in 2010 and how the supporting cast would need to step up to the plate. Luckily they did on Sunday with McManamon, Nolan, Cullen & Connolly (when he was on the pitch) all returning positive Expected Returns.

I’m willing to give Bernard Brogan a pass on his shooting from play – just look at his returns Vs Louth – however his deadball striking should be setting a few small alarm bells off. In the two games to date he has hit 40% (2 from 5). A combined Expected Return of -1.74, from just 5 shots, indicates how easy the frees he is missing are.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
Ben Brosnan (Wexford) 8 4 50% +0.96
B Brogan (Dublin) 7 0 0% -3.20
PJ Banville (Wexford) 6 1 17% -1.50
K McManamon (Dublin) 5 4 80% +1.49
A Flynn (Wexford) 5 2 40% +0.02
A Brogan (Dublin) 4 1 25% -0.68
D Connolly (Dublin) 3 2 67% +0.48
R Barry (Wexford) 3 2 67% +0.48
B Cullen (Dublin) 3 2 67% +0.33
K Nolan (Dublin) 2 2 100% +1.23

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2 Responses to “Dublin V Wexford”

  1. RMDrive Says:

    “And yet there were 18% more possessions in this game and 38% more shots.”

    Wouldn’t turnovers be a factor in this too? If you cough the ball up cheaply then you are going to generate more possessions; and more possessions means more shots? Ball retention by Tyrone and Donegal is top class and coupled with a more conservative approach to shot selection, I reckon that could explain your point.

    Good read!

  2. Action81.com » Tactics not Passion: Previewing Dublin vs. Meath – Leinster Final Says:

    […] 24 of the 42 against Louth but that high miss total, 18, served as a warning for the next day. With just 13 of 30 chances converted against Wexford, Dublin were sorely lacking the killer edge. Now with a re-shaped full […]

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