Portlaoise v Kilmacud Crokes Leinster Club SF 2018

As ever goals win games … or not. Portlaoise had two more shots than Kilmacud and also took shots that were expected, all other things being equal, to return a scoreline ~3pts more than Kilmacud. But Kilmacud ended up with 18 scores off a 64% Conversion Rate whilst Portlaoise returned 11 scores off a 37% Conversion Rate.

This was an incredibly open game with 12 goal attempts returning 4 – 04 and a phenomenal 40 shots in the first half. I think I called it “brilliantly bonkers” on twitter.

I mentioned the frantic pace at the start of Gaoth Dobhair v Crossmaglen as being unprecedented but we may need to review what the baseline for these upper echelon club games are. This game was every bit as frenetic; the first ten minutes produced 17 possessions with fifteen shots of which five were attempts at goal.

When Kilmacud had the ball

yellow = from deadballs; red = goal attempts; black = from play in 1st half; white = from play 2nd half

The most striking aspect of Kilmacud’s shooting was how close in to goal it was. 28 shots in the game with only maybe one coming from outside the optimal shooting zone … and that was from Paul Mannion who, given his form, is allowed shoot from anywhere!

They were 58% (0 – 11 from 19; Expt pts of +1.72) on point attempts from play which is very good. The Conversion Rate was undoubtedly aided by their shot selection however the positive Expt Pts shows that they were still more accurate than the norm.

At a macro level it looks like they are a very accurate team. We have the usual caveat of small sample size but this is the second recent game we have following the county final against St. Judes (didn’t do a write up but did cover the game) and they were 61% (0 – 11 from 18; Expt Pts of +2.71) on point attempts in that game.

Kilmacud had five shots at goal returning 1 – 03 which is about average. In the aforementioned game against St. Jude’s they also had five goal attempts returning 2 – 00.
Indicative of their attacking play those ten attempts at goal have been spread across five different forwards (Mullin x3, Mannion, Burke & Pearson x2 each and one from Horan)

There was nothing especially noteworthy about their free taking (0 – 03 from 4; Expt Pts of –0.65 as the one that Mannion missed was quite easy from the top of the D). Maybe Kilmacud might have a quibble at the dearth of frees as they’ve only had the five shots across the two games (four here and one against St. Jude’s) but Portlaoise and Jude’s combined for eight so there wouldn’t appear to be anything in that.

A quick note on Cunningham who was excellent as the link man. He had six primary assists in all; five for point attempts and one for a saved Mullin goal attempt.

When Portlaoise had the ball

Portlaoise had seven shots at goal one of which was the last minute penalty. Overall they come out with positive returns on these goal attempts (Expt Pts of +0.53) which is
remarkable considering the penalty save. I have penalties being converted ~80% of the time which means that a miss/save takes -2.35 off a team’s Expt Pts.

Overall Portlaoise recorded an Expt Pts of -4.66 so if their goal attempts came out more or less even then everything else must have fallen apart.

They had five point attempts from deadballs returning just 0 – 01 (Expt Pts of -2.36). Whilst two of these were 45s you would expect, in the normal course of things, Brody to have slotted one of them. Cahillane’s sole score was on the 13m line from in front of goal It was effectively a gimme (they are converted in excess of 99% of the time) so whilst one of his misses was from quite a tight angle he basically doesn’t get any benefit from the score to balance this out.

Then there was the point attempts. Portlaoise had 18 point attempts from play scoring just 0 – 06 (33%; Expt Pts of -2.83). Lillis and McCormack were the main culprits combining for 0 – 01 from 10. But more than individuals it was Portlaoise’s almost shoot on sight policy that hurt them. Below is a comparison of the two teams’ point attempts with Kilmacud in white and Portlaoise in black.

There is nothing to say you cannot convert from further out, or indeed that you cannot win by shooting over a team. But there is much greater variance in the returns from where Portlaoise attempted their points from as opposed to Kilmacud’s attempts

Kickouts

Very crudely Kilmacud followed the Dublin template with 73% (16 of 22) of their kickouts going short. They weren’t overly efficient on these however letting Portlaoise get their hands on two, scoring a goal off one and only scoring 0 – 04 from the 14 they did win.

Portlaoise were the inverse with 86% (19 of 22) of their kickouts crossing the 45. That made 25 kickouts in total crossing the 45 with Portlaoise coming out on top 14 – 11. Their poor conversion rates were evident again her however as they scored 1 – 02 from the eight shots off these kickouts whilst Kilmacud scored 0 – 06 off the 8 shots they manufactured.

Expected Wins; how teams fared versus their odds

Once September rolls around only one or two teams will deem their year as being successful. In 2015 Dublin had a year of years winning the league, Leinster and the All Ireland (do we throw in the O’Byrne cup?). Monaghan winning Ulster made for a successful season whilst there is an honourable mention for Fermanagh with promotion to Division2 and the quarter final appearance. But what about the rest?

If the league is a means to an end for the majority, and the All Ireland and Provincial championships are regularly shared by the same teams, how do we measure the remainder’s performance? Or indeed how do we judge a team like Tyrone that got relegated, fell short in Ulster but rallied to get to the All Ireland semi-final? One way is to compare a team’s results against how bookmaker’s thought they should fare.

Bookmakers give odds on all games. The main markets are match odds and handicap. Any bookmaker worth their salt will tell you that though all odds can be converted into a percentage chance of winning this is not their primary aim when setting the line. They are not trying to exactly predict the likelihood of an outcome but rather set a line that will encourage multi way action on the game. This then enables them to have relatively evenly split betting on all outcomes and they can take the built in margin.

Still these lines are a very good proxy for how a team is expected to perform and the cumulative odds can thus be used to extract just how many games a team won above, or below, what was expected. Thus we create an Expected Wins (Exp Wins) metric.

Expected Wins

All odds for a game were converted to an Exp Win (see methodology in Note2 below) and then teams ranked according to how many wins they obtained in the League & Championship above this mark

It comes as no surprise that seven of the top ten teams in pure win percentage appear in the top ten based on Exp Wins. Fermanagh and Monaghan are up there given their aforementioned successful seasons. Longford also had a good year winning 9 of their 13 games. In fact on pure winning percentage they finished second in the country behind Dublin’s 75%.

But what of the remainder? The biggest surprise by far was Limerick. They only won three games in total, ranking them in the bottom third on pure wins alone, but were 7th when compared to their Exp Wins. How so?

They were the outsider in all seven of their league games but won three. From those seven games the bookmakers expected them to win 1.87. They outperformed their expected wins by more than a full game. In the Championship they lost by two points away to Clare in a game that had Clare favoured by two and then walked into Tyrone in the first round of the back door. The positive Exp Win total they accumulated in the league was not too badly dented by these two losses – especially the Tyrone one where they were huge outsiders.

Sligo were a bit of a surprise given that they only won four games but again they were quite large underdogs when beating Roscommon in the Championship and complete outsiders in the next two games against Tyrone & Mayo. Given the very low combined Exp Wins from those three games (0.39) that one victory against Roscommon puts them in positive territory for the Championship alone.

Against the Spread

Another way of tracking a team’s performance is to see if they covered the bookmaker’s handicap; or what their ATS (against the spread) was in American parlance. We would expect some cross over with the best performers in the Expected Win list but crucially you don’t have to win a game to beat this performance metric – only play above an expected standard

Again six of the teams that appeared in the Exp Wins top ten re-appear. A number of the teams, such as Limerick, Sligo, Fermanagh & Monaghan we have touched upon previously but there are a few surprises. Mayo, despite being a very high profile team, would have been a profitable one to follow on the handicap. Cork, for all the negativity following the losses to Kerry & Kildare, were also profitable but it is London & Leitrim that jump out. Between them they won four games all season but it could be argued they had a pretty good year; their performance exceeded expectations in 12 of their combined 18 games.

London only won one of their nine games all year but managed to cover the handicap on six occasions. Narrow that further and they covered the handicap in five of their seven league games including all three that they played away. You would never state that London had a good season but from a performance perspective we should probably cut them some slack. They performed well above expectation.

Worst Performances

Originally the above table was going to be the bottom five but I expanded it to catch two of the bigger fish.

Some of the lower lights – Carlow, Wicklow & Waterford – being down here is not really a surprise given just how few games they won. However it does indicate that perhaps the bookmakers were generally over rating them despite their poor form.

Laois were particularly poor but looking purely at their Championship form they beat Carlow when their Exp Win was 0.86 so get very little credit for that and then had a further three games failing to win any of them when the combined Exp Win was 1.75.

Given they were relegated from Division 1 with just the one win from seven it is perhaps no surprise to see Tyrone down here.

Kerry won seven games throughout the year but were expected to win eight. Creating a league/Championship split Kerry had an Expected win of -0.81 in the league and -0.19 in the Championship. Their Championship was slightly less underwhelming than their league (I kid – sort of!)

Three of those that appeared in the worst Exp Win table re-appear when we look at the worst performances against the handicap. Wicklow and Waterford not only failed to win enough games but also played poorly in their losses covering a combined four handicaps over 18 games. Given that they won seven games but were only an outsider once during the year – and that a slight outsider in the final against Dublin – it is no surprise that Kerry are again represented.

They had, all told, a good year but were consistently over valued by the bookmakers. Or conversely the bookmakers kept their odds short as the public’s perception of Kerry was that they were performing better than they actually were.

APPENDIX

Note 1; there can be quite a difference in bookmaker’s odds. The odds used for this piece were taken primarily from Paddy Power rather than taking the best prices available across all bookmakers. The main reason for this was laziness on my part as it meant just one source rather than hopping around sites.

When you take the price can also be important. Lines do move. However they were generally taken on Saturday or Sunday morning when any early moves had been accounted for.

Note2; generally speaking the margin on GAA match odds is 109% with lesser games getting up to 112%. A typical line in a close game would be 10/11 (home team), 15/2 (draw) & 6/5 (away team) which equals a book of 109.6%. To make this, and all games, come in at 100% – and remove the bookmaker’s margin – I extracted 3% from each outcome. There is a valid argument that this should be more nuanced (take less off the draw perhaps) but for now it’s fine.

The home team has a 52.4% chance of winning on the odds. We know this is inflated to account for the bookmaker’s margin. Take 3% away from each of the three outcomes to account for this and the home team now has a 49.4% chance of winning. So using the above quoted odds we get an Exp win of 0.49 for the home team (priced at 10/11) and 0.42 for the away team (priced at 6/5).

Do this for all games for a particular team and you have created an Expected Wins metric.

Laois V Fermanagh 2014 Championship

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Laois	49	37	76%	20	54%	+2.8431
Fermanagh	38	29	76%	17	59%	+2.163
Champ (’12 & ’13 avg)	35.8	27.6	77.2%	14.1	51.0%

A generally open game with Fermanagh’s accuracy, rather than any squandering on Laois’s part, leading to a close game.

The 49 possessions here indicate, alongside the 44 gained against Dublin, that this Laois team has a lot of attacking intent and will have enough ball to give any team a game.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Laois	30	15	50%	+2.009
Fermanagh	24	12	50%	+0.298
Champ avgs (’12 & ’13)	20.3	9.2	45.4%

Two things jump out. The first being the discrepancy in weightings considering that both teams converted 50%. Fermanagh’s weighting is hugely affected by two efforts for fisted points from Owens & Quigley from in front of the posts. There are not enough of these attempts in the database to give them a proper weighting so they are treated as normal attempts at a point from in front of goals – teams (& players) are pretty negatively affected when they miss these attempts.

The second is how good Laois’s returns were. Much of the commentary in the first half was around how Laois were squandering their supremacy. And they did – they only converted 2 of their first 10 shots. This impression of looseness was maintained throughout the game however after that initial period Laois were superb converting 65% (13 out of 20) of their shots including a remarkable closing sequence of 7 from 8.

There were some remarkable individual displays from Quigley (5 from 9 with a weighting of +1.115) and Kingston (5 from 8 with a weighting of +1.605). Indeed for one stretch of play, either side of half time, Quigley accounted for 10 of Fermanagh’s 12 shots.

Munnelly could not maintain his shooting accuracy from the Dublin game. It was noticeable however that after the Fermanagh goal in the first half it was Munnelly that took the next two shots and set up the third for Meredith’s point right before the half time whistle.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
D Strong (Laois)	4	2	50%	-0.322
R Munnelly (Laois)	2	2	100%	+0.906
D Kingston (Laois)	1	1	100%	+0.160
S Quigley (Fermanagh)	5	5	100%	+1.865
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ)	7.3	4.9	66.7%

Excellent deadball striking all told with the only two misses coming from two long range Darren Strong frees.

Quigley’s returns were very good with only one of the four frees being central.

Kickouts

Laois’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into a possession	%	Shot	%
Laois	19	76%	15	79%	11	58%
Fermanagh	6	24%	6	100%	6	100%
Fermanagh’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into a possession	%	Shot	%
Laois	10	32%	9	90%	7	70%
Fermanagh	21	68%	14	67%	10	48%

Laois went short (were allowed go short by Fermanagh) on 54% of their kickouts which resulted in 9 shots and a return of 0-03. Fermanagh did not gain a possession from any of these kickouts.

When Laois went past the 45 with their kickout it became a contest. Fermanagh won 5 of the 11 and got a shot from all 5. Laois only managed to get two shots from the six that they won.

Fermanagh were better at defending the short kickout than Antrim were against Donegal (or conversely Laois were poor at turning the short kickout into a shot) but in both games they (Fermanagh & Antrim) were better served by forcing the opposition to kick long

Turnovers

Team “coughing up” possession	# turnovers	Shots from Turnovers	%
Laois	27	11	41%
Fermanagh	28	18	64%

 

	Misplaced Pass	Tackled	Shots not going dead	Mishandled possession	Fouled ball
Laois	8	9	5	3	2
Fermanagh	16	5	3	2	2

Laois will be concerned by how often they got turned over in the tackle. The good news was that none of those particular turnovers occurred in their own third of the pitch. The bad news is that the 9 turnovers were spread over 7 different players so it appears to be a team wide “fault” in that they get dispossessed easier than most county teams (they also lost possession against Dublin 5 times through a tackle)

Shot Charts

Laois’s shooting

Fermanagh’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
S Quigley (Fermanagh)	9	5	56%	+1.115
D Kingston (Laois)	8	5	63%	+1.605
R Munnelly (Laois)	6	2	33%	-0.343
C Begley (Laois)	3	1	33%	-0.135
D Strong (Laois)	3	1	33%	-0.357
T McElroy (Fermanagh)	3	0	0%	-1.283
C Meredith (Laois)	2	2	100%	+1.003
E Maguire (Fermanagh)	2	2	100%	+0.793
R Jones (Fermanagh)	2	1	50%	+0.281
B Sheehan (Laois)	2	1	50%	+0.234
P McCusker (Fermanagh)	2	1	50%	+0.149
D Conway (Laois)	2	1	50%	-0.125
B Owens (Fermanagh)	2	1	50%	-0.417

Dublin V Laois 2014 Championship

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	51	42	82%	23	55%	+2.758
Laois	44	33	75%	16	48%	-0.027
Champ (’12 & ’13 avg)	35.8	27.6	77.2%	14.1	51.0%

Dublin may have had 57 & 54 possessions against Cork & Derry in the league but this performance is the only time that any team has breached 50 possessions in a Championship game. Whilst that sequence of numbers are scary in themselves what may be more troubling for pretenders to their All Ireland crown is the fact that whilst they have maintained a very high Shot Rate (82% here; 82% & 83% against Cork & Derry) they improved their Success Rate – it was 49% in their two aforementioned league games. Maintaining 55% accuracy from that volume of shots is excellent.

Despite the gaudy numbers this was not a smooth, even performance. Much like against Cork in this year’s league semi final this was a game of two very different halves from Dublin with the after burners only being applied in the second half

1st half

	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	26	22	85%	8	36%	-2.652
Laois	27	21	78%	10	48%	0.413

2nd half

	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	25	20	80%	15	75%	+5.410
Laois	17	12	71%	6	50%	-0.440

Part of that second half prowess comes from some fabulous shooting from Dublin’s substitutes. The combined stat line for those sprung from the bench was 12 shots with a 75% Success Rate and a weighting of +2.919.

Rock & Costello scored the last 6 points from 6 shots when it could be argued that Laois were “gone” but you still have to have the ability to put players in those positions and have the squad that can finish the moves off. Dublin quite obviously have both.

So what of Laois? They came out of the traps on fire. By the time they committed their first turnover they had taken 8 shots from 8 possessions. It was the 12th minute, when O’Loughlin tried to pass the ball across the square to an outstretched Munnelly before they had an attack that did not result in a shot.

Their attacking approach was well above average; 44 attacking possessions and 33 shots, even with a below average Success Rate would be enough to win most games. Against this Dublin team however you must either (a) curtail their volume of shots or (b) convert your own chances at a very high rate – mid 60%

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	34	17	50%	+1.704
Laois	27	12	44%	+0.442
Champ avgs (’12 & ’13)	20.3	9.2	45.4%

Of course what really helps against Dublin, alongside a very high Success Rate, are goals. Laois didn’t manage one shot at goal.

In a previous post it has been shown that Dublin go for goal more than any other team – they were at it again in this game. Dublin had 9 shots at goal which equates to one shot at goal for every 2.8 point attempts – the average in last year’s Championship was 1 shot at goal for every 6.7 attempts at a point.

With such a poor Success Rate on goal attempts (22%; 2 from 9) then Dublin’s attempts at points must have been stellar to maintain such a high overall weighting – and they were. They converted 60% of their point attempts (15 from 25) with a weighting of +3.370. As stated earlier those numbers are somewhat padded by how the game ended but even removing Costello’s three late points Dublin converted 55% – still well above the average.

A special note for Munnelly. Watching his performance live you knew you were watching something noteworthy. Not only did he convert five shots from six attempts but they were from quite varied positions on the pitch – two from Sector 4 on the right, one from the centre and two from inside the 20m line on the left. Oh and one of his frees was from outside the 45.

His weighting for his shooting from play is better than anything recorded in last year’s Championship. Better than Dunne’s performance for Cavan against Armagh, Kielt’s against Down or the Gooch’s against Tipperary. It will be an exceptional shooting performance that tops what we witnessed on Sunday.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
S Cluxton (Dublin)	4	2	50%	+0.00
D Rock (Dublin)	3	3	100%	+0.967
B Brogan (Dublin)	1	1	100%	+0.087
D Kingston (Laois)	3	2	67%	-0.600
R Munnelly (Laois)	2	2	100%	+0.678
D Strong (Laois)	1	0	0%	-0.547
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ)	7.3	4.9	66.7%

Nothing overly spectacular in those numbers. Kingston gets penalized heavily for missing the free from Sector 9 (it is the weakness of the sector approach – shots from wider out are treated the same as those nearer in. Overall the swings and roundabouts will even themselves out but in specific games it can look harsh) whilst the two he converted were relativity simple.

Cluxton converted 2 of his 4 45s which is bang on average. There was no pressure on Rock’s three frees towards the end of the game however he was still very effective considering how little time he had to get up to game speed. Having a deadball striker of the caliber to call on could be hugely vital in closer games should Brogan be injured or his radar not function.

Kickouts

Dublin’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into a possession	%	Shot	%
Dublin	23	79%	16	70%	11	48%
Laois	6	21%	6	100%	4	67%
Laois’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into a possession	%	Shot	%
Dublin	7	19%	4	57%	4	100%
Laois	29	81%	22	76%	17	59%

Ostensibly Laois won the kickout battle. They won 5 more kickouts than Dublin (gaining possession on 35 kickouts to Dublin’s 30) and also harvested 6 more shots than Dublin did from possessions directly attributable to kickouts. They performed as well on Dublin’s kickouts as Dublin did on theirs whilst performing better than Dublin did on their own kickouts. It is not often we have seen that.

This is all the more commendable when you consider that Laois only went short on 9 of their own kickouts whilst Dublin went short on 16. Stripping these out Laois won 61% (22 out of 36) of what may be deemed contestable kickouts – 17 out of 24 on their own kickouts and 5 out of 12 on Dublin’s (unfortunately the cameras missed where 4 of the kickouts landed).

Of the 16 that Dublin went short on they won 15 and got a shot from 8 of them (53% of the time) – which is on a par with the returns observed in last year’s Championship.

Turnovers

	Team “coughing up” possession	Shots from Turnovers	%
Dublin	25	11	44%
Laois	31	22	71%

 

	Misplaced Pass	Tackled	Shots not going dead	Mishandled possession	Fouled ball
Dublin	16	0	2	1	6
Laois	18	5	3	3	2

Again we see Dublin’s fantastic ability to convert turnover ball to shots. In the league final against Derry they converted 24 of 33 (73%) turnovers into a shot. Again against Laois they converted 71% (22 from 31) of turnovers into shots. No other team has breached 50%.

Of the 31 turnovers Dublin received the ball in their own third of the pitch 22 times turning 13 of these into a shot. Of course that means that when Laois gave away the ball outside Dublin’s 45 every one of them was turned into a shot.

Another remarkable stat is the fact that Laois never regained possession from Dublin through a tackle. Not once. All of Dublin’s turnovers, or as near as makes no difference, could be described as self inflicted with passes going stray or Dublin’s forwards, in the main, fouling (think of O’Gara being blown for charging)

Shot Charts
I’m not sure if the top teams held a conference after last year’s Championship but following Mayo’s unbalanced shooting chart against Roscommon Dublin have followed suit. They only produced one shot for a point from the left hand side – in 2Again there is no evidence of this being a “thing” for Dublin so we will chalk it down as a one off – but still that is two performances back to back from big guns with a combined total of 1 shot from play from the left hand side.

Dublin’s shooting

Laois’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
R Munnelly (Laois)	6	5	83%	+2.590
P Flynn (Dublin)	5	3	60%	+0.667
D Strong (Dublin)	5	2	40%	-0.075
D Kingston (Laois)	5	1	20%	-1.215
C Costello (Dublin)	4	3	75%	+1.284
D Connolly (Dublin)	4	2	50%	+0.467
P Andrews (Dublin)	4	1	25%	-1.135
A Brogan (Dublin)	3	1	33%	-0.126
E O’Gara (Dublin)	3	1	33%	-0.332
D Conway (Laois)	3	1	33%	-0.427
K McManamon (Dublin)	2	2	100%	+1.142
MD MacCauley (Dublin)	2	1	50%	+0.185
J O’Loughlin (Laois)	2	1	50%	+0.003
C Begley (Laois)	2	0	0%	-0.718

Dublin V Laois

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Return Vs Expected
Dublin	38	29	76%	13	45%	-1.69
Laois	30	18	60%	12	67%	+1.47
avg	38.5	27.6	71.7%	13.9	50.4%	0.00

Laois’s returns are a bit of a curate’s egg; they struggled to convert the possession they had into shots (60% shot rate was the lowest of the 8 quarter finalists – next lowest was Down on 75%) but when they did shoot their conversion rate was excellent (only Cork’s 68% versus Kildare bettered them).

Not for the first time this year Dublin’s shooting was below average. Their returns have been very inconsistent with both their Shot Rate & Success Rates varying from game to game. If they put it all together they will be hard to beat however the concern must be that we are in the middle of August and the complete game hasn’t occurred yet.

From play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
Dublin	20	7	35%	-1.85
Laois	8	4	50%	+0.56
avg	20.5	9.2	44.9%	0.00

From deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
B Brogan (Dublin)	4	3	75%	-0.21
S Cluxton (Dublin)	4	3	75%	+0.92
T Quinn (Dublin)	1	0	0%	-0.55
R Munnelly (Laois)	4	3	75%	+0.26
C Kelly (Laois)	4	3	75%	-0.08
MJ Tierney (Laois)	2	2	100%	+0.73
team avgs	7.2	4.8	66.2%	0.00

To only have 8 shots from play in a QF is remarkable; Down managed 11 & Kildare managed 17 in their two big losses. Probably more remarkable is that in the 2nd half, when they were within sight of an All – Ireland semi final, they only had 6 shots on goal of which 1 was from play (Munnelly dropped it into Cluxton’s hands at the start of the half). For all Laois’s endeavour it was Dublin’s wastefulness, and unnecessary fouling (why foul anywhere inside the 45m line against such a shot shy team?) that kept them in the game.

As for Dublin? For better or worse their fortunes are hitched to Bernard Brogan. His form has been very inconsistent with good verging on excellent performances against Louth & Meath and below average ones against Wexford and now Laois. He has taken 29% of all their shots in this year’s Championship – if he doesn’t perform Dublin’s shooting rarely rises above mediocrity

In the review of the Meath game I highlighted how the starting 5 forwards outside of Brogan have had average returns – that none of them were stepping forward to help him on a consistent basis. That’s still the case. Flynn & Cluxton had their shooting boots on in this game but Flynn missed all three shots against Meath; Cluxton hit 3 from 6 deadballs in the 3 games prior to this.

Despite the fact that Brogan has been inconsistent, and the other forwards have not stepped up, Dublin are winning. They have scraped over the line in games where Brogan hasn’t played. Winning ugly is the mark of a champion … but you have to feel that the better class of teams they will now meet will not be as lenient as their opponents have been to date.

NB; One further thing to note is the rate at which Dublin are conceding frees in scoreable positions (Louth – 9 shots from deadballs, Wexford 8, Meath 9 and Laois 10). They will need to improve their discipline inside the 45m line the next day

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
B Brogan (Dublin)	4	1	25%	-1.10
P Flynn (Dublin)	3	2	67%	+0.83
R Munnelly (Laois)	3	1	33%	-0.09
E O’Gara (Laois)	3	1	33%	-0.30
G Walsh (Laois)	2	2	100%	+0.92
D Bastick (Dublin)	2	1	50%	+0.32
C Begley (Laois)	2	1	50%	+0.10
K Nolan (Dublin)	2	1	50%	-0.08

Laois V Meath

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Return Vs Expected
Laois	34	30	88%	16	53%	+2.11
Meath	32	23	72%	13	57%	-0.49
avg	38.5	27.6	71.7%	13.9	50.4%	0.00

Allowances can be made for the low level of possessions given the conditions that afflicted this game. With that in mind Justin McNulty will be happy with his team’s body of work in Tullamore. When Laois had the wind in the first half they built a good lead with Strong, Munnelly & Quigley all landing points from outside the 45m line.

A note of caution however has to be struck. Yes this was a very good win for them however it is unlikely that they will have a Shot Rate of 88% again this Summer. Given that a Success Rate on their shooting of just about average will probably not suffice against the better teams. The positive Expected Return on their shooting can probably all be attributed to the three points from outside the 45m line – their shooting outside that was average. If, as we expect, they don’t maintain the very high shot rate they will have to be more accurate with their shooting.

From play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
Laois	24	13	54%	+2.53
Meath	11	4	36%	-0.92
avg	20.5	9.2	44.9%	0.00

From deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
B Farrell (Meath)	10	8	80%	+0.70
S Bray (Meath)	1	1	100%	+0.24
J Sheridan (Meath)	1	0	0%	-0.51
C Kelly (Laois)	3	1	33%	-0.50
MJ Tierney (Laois)	2	1	50%	-0.41
R Munnelly (Laois)	1	1	100%	+0.49
team avgs	7.2	4.8	66.2%	0.00

Laois are more physical than in previous years however they will need to get their tackling under control against Dublin.

Laois only coughed up 4 scores from play however they offered up 11 shots from frees (Sheridan’s deadball was a 45). If their tackling is not more disciplined (or de we say it cynical so that they don’t foul in scoring range) then they will be in trouble against Dublin. Although we have seen the Dublin forwards take a collective day off previously – vs. Wexford – it is hard to see them only scoring 4 times from play. Laois cannot afford to give away 9 points from deadballs again this Summer.

In the Dublin-Meath game I commented on how only getting 17 shots from play was poor for a forward line with the talent of Meath. This game was no better. Whilst the traditionalists laud Meath for their long ball approach it is plainly not working for them at present. In two games they have gotten less shots off than average and their Success Rate on the shots they did get off was poor as well. If Banty survives into 2013 they will need to review their gameplan.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
R Munnelly (Laois)	5	4	80%	+1.88
P Clancy (Laois)	5	2	40%	-0.06
C Begley (Laois)	3	1	33%	-0.32
G Reilly (Meath)	2	1	50%	+0.17
B Quigley (Laois)	2	1	50%	+0.11
S Bray (Meath)	2	0	0%	-0.71
B Farrell (Meath)	2	0	0%	-0.82
J O’Loughlin (Laois)	2	0	0%	-0.96