Dublin V Kerry 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Just a quick note re the numbers. Like Kevin Reilly’s goal for Meath McMahon’s point is not included in the below numbers as it was not a shot.

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Dublin 39 32 82% 20 63% +5.1973
Kerry 30 25 83% 14 56% +1.3633
2012 avg 35.28 27.02 76.6% 13.96 51.67%

Dublin’s shooting was superb and the weighting is second only to Mayo’s demolition of Donegal. All aspects of their shooting were above average but to have a Success Rate of 63% on so many shots is quite remarkable (Mayo had a Success Rate of 64% on 21 shots).

Kerry’s shooting was also good, with their shooting from play being very good, however the volume of possessions is what cost them in the end. In the first half the split of possessions was Dublin 18 Kerry 19. The second half? Kerry had 11 (!) and Dublin 21.

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Dublin – 1st half 18 14 78% 9 64% +1.6278
Kerry – 1st half 19 15 79% 8 53% +0.791
Dublin – 2nd half 21 18 86% 11 61% +3.5695
Kerry – 2nd half 11 10 91% 6 60% +0.5723

Dublin were excellent in that second half but if Kerry could have only maintained an average pace in the second half they may well have put Dublin to the sword.

Shots from Play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Dublin 27 16 59% +5.2151
Kerry 20 11 55% +1.9375
2012 team avgs 20.14 9.36 46.5%

The shooting from play was a joy to behold and the performances were the highest combined in any game.

Dublin’s weighting was built on two main aspects. The first was their conversion rate when going for goal – six shots resulting in four scores (3-01). The second was their exceptional point taking out the field. At a high level c41% of all shots taken from play between the 20m & 45m lines are converted. Dublin converted a phenomenal 63% (8 from 13).

Brogan had 5 such shots (from play between the 20 & 45m lines) converting four of them. He missed closer in whilst going for goal but it was great to see him at his natural point scoring best.

Kerry for their part had a very good day as well however they were in some ways the mirror image of Dublin. They only converted 13% (1 from 8) of the shots they took outside the 20m line. There was no one culprit with six separate players shooting and missing from this range.

Of course what that means is that to have such a good overall weighting they were deadly accurate inside the 20m line. They scored 2-08 on twelve shots but perhaps more interesting for the upcoming final is that despite being that close to goal Dublin only pressurised 42% (5 of 12) of those shots.

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
B Brogan (Dublin) 3 2 67% -0.447
D Connolly (Dublin) 1 1 100% +0.274
S Cluxton (Dublin) 1 1 100% +0.159
C Cooper (Kerry) 3 2 67% -0.338
J O’Donoghue (Kerry) 1 1 100% +0.609
J Buckley (Kerry) 1 0 0% -0.845
2012 team avgs 6.88 4.6 66.9%

The first point to note is the relative lack of shots at goal from deadballs. The 2012 average was just below 14 a game; we had a relatively small 10 in this game.

Part of the reason for this was Cooper’s influence on Kerry in the first half. I counted three times that a Kerry player was fouled in and around the 45m line where most teams would have put the ball down and let their long-range free taker have a shot. Instead Cooper took a quick free that ultimately resulted in 1-02 for Kerry.

Though there were no spectacular individual returns Kerry will be disappointed with the timing of their two misses. Both Cooper & Buckley missed straight forward frees in the last ten minutes of the first half when they could have easily stretched their lead.

Kerry’s deadball striking has been something the blog has keyed in on previously. They were poor up until the last two games where they hit 93% (17 from 18) however the two misses, Buckley’s especially, show that the issue has not gone away.

Shot Charts

The shot charts highlight the aforementioned mirror image of the two team’s shooting outside the 20m line. Yes Kerry had seven less shots but they did have their chances.

Dublin’s shooting

Dublin shooting

Kerry’s shooting
Kerry shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts
Dub-Kerry kickouts

Looking purely at the volume of kickouts won you would be excused for thinking that Kerry did very well against the much vaunted Dublin strategy. They basically broke even. However dig a little deeper and you will find that Dublin did indeed win the strategic battle.

From the possessions immediately gained from the kickouts Dublin managed to get five extra shots. Considering that Dublin had seven extra shots in total their kickout successes were a major part in ensuring they had the volume of shots to overcome Kerry.

Kerry went short on nine of their kickouts (32%) gaining possession on eight (the ninth was kicked out over the sideline but no damage was done). Surprisingly Kerry only managed to get two of those eight possessions into Dublin’s 45m line. They got a shot off from both.

As a comparison Dublin went short on eleven (48%) of their kickouts gaining possession on ten. Of the ten six ended up being a possession and again all six resulted in a Dublin shot.

Even though Dublin eventually let in a goal from the one short one that went awry they still managed to get four more shots off from the possession directly from short kickouts.

Players with >= 2 shots from play
A quick comparison of Dean Rock versus the three starting full forwards over the last three games

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
B Brogan 13 4 31% -1.253
D Rock 7 5 71% 2.248
P Mannion 6 4 67% +1.549
P Andrews 3 1 33% -0.149

It is becoming a bit of a band wagon to call for Rock to start in the final but the numbers do confirm what the eye indicates.

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
B Brogan (Dublin) 8 4 50% +0.586
J O’Donoghue (Kerry) 5 4 80% +1.278
Declan O’Sullivan (Kerry) 4 1 25% -0.418
D Connolly (Dublin) 3 3 100% +1.723
D Rock (Dublin) 3 2 67% +0.959
C Cooper (Kerry) 3 2 67% +0.851
P Galvin (Kerry) 2 2 100% +0.905
K McManamon (Dublin) 2 1 50% +0.320
C Kilkenny (Dublin) 2 1 50% +0.296
D Walsh (Kerry) 2 1 50% +0.230
P Andrews (Dublin) 2 1 50% +0.230
P Mannion (Dublin) 2 1 50% +0.151
Darran O’Sullivan (Kerry) 2 1 50% -0.095
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6 Responses to “Dublin V Kerry 2013”

  1. liamoggordon Says:

    Where can we get fouls and cards info on the recent GAA games? Ideally by half. Trying to track when fouls/cards happen

    • dontfoul Says:

      I’m afraid I have not seen consistent chronology of fouls/cards

      Only method I can think of for cards is to trawl through various match reports

  2. Mark Says:

    Was there any significant difference regarding kickouts won/lost between the two halves of the match?

  3. Nigel Walsh Says:

    How many hand passes and kick passes did each team have in last weeks Dublin v Kerry match and what was the turnover ratio from each type of pass.

  4. pytheas Says:

    Absolutely great!! Thx for your help to a better understanding of the game.

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