Cavan V Kerry 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Cavan 33 24 73% 9 38% -2.893
Kerry 37 26 70% 15 58% +0.9985
2012 avg 35.28 27.02 76.6% 13.96 51.67%

Excellent accuracy from Kerry converting 58% of their shots however there was a real divide in their shooting from play (39%) and their deadball shooting (100%). Their Shot Rate was low, which may be in part due to a lacklustre second half (it was 89% in the Munster final), but if it were to be repeated against Dublin it would put huge pressure on the accuracy as they attempt to keep pace.

Cavan’s shooting was poor but not as poor as the weighting would suggest. They got penalised very harshly for Mackey’s attempted blast with the last kick of the ball but still they had the chances to put Kerry under more pressure than they did.

The difference can be summed up in a cameo between Buckley & Reilly. Buckley had two 45s and a free in quick succession in the first half – he slotted all three enabling Kerry to build a lead. Reilly similarly had a long-range free and two 45s in quick succession in the second half as Cavan chased the lead. He converted one.

Shots from Play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Cavan 15 4 27% -1.828
Kerry 18 7 39% -1.492
2012 team avgs 20.14 9.36 46.5%

Pretty poor returns all round.

Of the 18 shots that Kerry took Walsh accounted for six of them. That left 12 further shots spread out amongst ten different players. The five remaining forwards had combined returns of three from seven (Conversion Rate 43%; weighting -0.4805) … given the expected volume of shots that Dublin will bring Kerry will either need to up how many shots their marquee forwards take or their accuracy is going to have to increase greatly.

Although Cavan had enough shots to be closer to Kerry their two main men, Dunne & Keating, only had four shots with Dunne converting one.

Whilst Kerry went on their nine point unanswered run in the first half they took 14 shots compared to Cavan’s two. Cavan were simply over run for that period and were never able to adequately make up the deficit despite their resurgence in the second half. As an aside Kerry did something similar to Cork towards the end of the first half in the Munster final; they led the shot count 11-2 for the last 15 minutes of that half.

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
C Cooper (Kerry) 5 5 100% +0.972
J Buckley (Kerry) 3 3 100% +1.518
E Keating (Cavan) 3 2 67% +0.05
M Reilly (Cavan) 3 1 33% -0.499
N McDermott (Cavan) 2 2 100% +0.330
C Mackey (Cavan) 1 0 0% -0.944
2012 team avgs 6.88 4.6 66.9%

In the 2012 Championship, and the 2013 League Kerry had problems from deadballs

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
’12 Champ 29 17 59% -4.76
’13 League 21 12 57% -3.708

In the last two games those problems have disappeared with Kerry converting 8 from 8 in this game and 7 from 8 in the Munster Final (combined conversion rate of 93%). Part of this is sample size, part is the natural ebb and flow of form but perhaps in this case part can also be attributed to a change in kicker. Whilst only one game Buckley’s long range performance was, much like Cluxton for Dublin, the pillar on which Kerry’s early lead was built upon.

If we excuse Mackey’s blast at goal towards the end then Cavan’s shooting from frees & 45s was average.

Shot Charts
Cavan’s shooting

Cavan shooting

Kerry’s shooting

Kerry shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts
Cavan-Kerry kickouts

Kerry fairly well lorded their own kickouts winning possession from 90% of them. They went short on 55% (11 of 20), securing all of them, however won the possession battle 7-2 when they went past the 45m line as well. They got a shot off from 45% (5/11) of their short kickouts and 43% (3/7) of the long to medium kickouts they won.

Although there was not much difference in returns mixing up the kickouts does ensure that Dublin cannot key on any one facet. Against Cork Kerry only went short once out of 24 … by varying the tactic in this game it gives Dublin something extra to think about.

Cavan went short on 54% (13 of 24) of their kickouts. The messed up the first one but got a shot off on seven of the remainder. When Cavan went long they actually lost the possession battle 4-7 giving Kerry four shots and only managing one themselves.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
D Walsh (Kerry) 6 3 50% +0.089
E Keating (Cavan) 3 0 0% -1.175
D Givney (Cavan) 2 1 50% +0.185
N McDermott (Cavan) 2 1 50% +0.185
Declan O’Sullivan (Kerry) 2 1 50% -0.093
Darran O’Sullivan (Kerry) 2 0 0% -0.761
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2 Responses to “Cavan V Kerry 2013”

  1. reilly Says:

    hi good site -do you have individual player possession stats for cavan v kerry match

    • dontfoul Says:

      Cheers

      Unfortunately I don’t do possession stats … only place I’ve ever seen them on a regular basis is on TV3’s productions. Not sure if they produce them anywhere

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