Kildare V Tyrone 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Kildare 34 28 82% 12 43% -0.7048
Tyrone 33 25 76% 12 48% -2.322
2012 avg 35.28 27.02 76.6% 13.96 51.67%  

There’s some numbers that might surprise! Tyrone won by two points, and for 55 of the 70 minutes had kept Kildare at an easy arms length, but judging by the raw numbers you would deem them to have fallen over the line.

This game had some very strange idiosyncrasies which no doubt fed into the overall weightings. You had a woeful Kildare shooting performance except for 10 minutes in the second half when they went 5 for 5, a very rare occurrence in a saved penalty, and a sideline converted when the player wasn’t shooting.

We will review the affects of the penalty and sideline in the deadball section but first we’ll take a look at Kildare’s splits.

Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
1st Half 18 16 89% 4 25% -2.814
2nd Half 16 12 75% 8 67% +2.109

Kildare’s shooting was atrocious in that first half. The worst shooting performance in this year’s Championship was probably Roscommon’s against Mayo where they recorded a Success Rate of 35% & a weighting of -3.912 (Tyrone themselves had a Success Rate of 34% against Donegal but not as bad a weighting). Kildare in that first half were on track to smash both.

They completely turned it around at the start of the second half, scoring 6 points from 7 shots (and only 8 possessions). The problem thereafter was that they only managed to engineer a further 4 shots (excluding Johnston’s sideline) in c 20 minutes.

Tyrone themselves had a pretty poor second half with three of their five points coming from easy frees. O’Neill, McCurry & Mark Donnelly all missed chances from inside the 21m line as well as the penalty save.

Shots from Play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Kildare 20 7 35% -0.7263
Tyrone 15 5 33% -1.583
2012 team avgs 20.14 9.36 46.5%  

Tyrone’s shooting from play was worse than Kildare’s. Now that is due in part to the fact that Kildare were at their most successful when chasing a lead which leads to a better weighting (see here) however there was some strange shot selections as well. O’Neill (x2) & Sean Cavanagh both took shots tight to the endline. They have the skill to pull the spectacular off but 3 times? They may have been better recycling those chances.

Kildare’s real problems came from a sector to the right of the goal. Kildare attempted ten shots within a small area covering sectors 4 & 7 and converted two. On a good game a team would convert 5 or 6 of these; on an average day 4 – so whilst ideally you would like to see some of those shot attempts recycled to more advantageous positions there was no real issue with taking the shot – it was just poor execution.

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
D McCurry (Tyrone) 4 3 75% -0.579
S Cavanagh (Tyrone) 3 3 100% +0.476
M Penrose (Tyrone) 1 1 100% +0.274
S O’Neill (Tyrone) 1 0 0% -0.391
Joe McMahon (Tyrone) 1 0 0% -0.519
J Doyle (Kildare) 6 4 67% +0.228
S Johnston (Kildare) 1 1 100% +0.274
E O’Flaherty (Kildare) 1 0 0% -0.481
2012 team avgs 6.88 4.6 66.9%  

Tyrone do like to spread the wealth when it comes to shooting from deadballs – I’m not sure we’ll see too many games where five different players get to have an attempt. Séan Cavanagh had a good game whilst McCurry gets hammered on the weightings for his one miss because the three frees he made were so simple he got next to no benefit from them.

Stephen O’Neill didn’t score in this game but his hidden value was instrumental in Tyrone’s win. He won a 45 and four frees from which Tyrone scored on each.

Penalties in GAA are considered easier to convert than soccer so it may be somewhat surprising to see a miss equated with missing a 45. This is due to the fact that we have so few penalties tracked. I made a call to treat penalties as a shot for goal from play rather than as a free – this probably overplays the difficulty of converting a penalty and as such when one is missed the weighting doesn’t truly convey how poor that miss was (conversely if one is successfully converted the player will get too high a weighting).

Kildare’s deadball striking has been a problem for quite a while and again today, excluding the sideline at the end, it was below average.

Seanie Johnston’s sideline at the end of the second half was bizarre. I wasn’t going to put it in as a shot but in the end did – I’m still not convinced I should have! What I found strangest was that he had a practice attempt and landed it basically on the square.

Typical of Kildare’s season that the most egregious shooting error should be one from which they scored!

Shot Charts

You can see the aforementioned three shots from very, very tight angles for Tyrone. As well as that there were few shots from central locations – a curate’s egg of a performance that led to the poor returns.
Kildare’s shooting

Kildare shooting

Tyrone’s shooting

Tyrone shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts
Kil-Tyr kickouts

Kildare’s kickout returns look healthy however they went short on 8 of their own kickouts. They were quite effective moving the ball from these short kickouts gaining five shots. At times these kickout routines can be fraught, with the odd one going astray, but even if it does you may be better taking that one misplaced attempt on the chin that abandoning the ploy. When Kildare went passed the 45 with their kickout the possession was 50:50 and the volume of shots 4-3 in Kildare’s favour.

Tyrone only went short on one of their kickouts (which didn’t produce a shot). They were much more effective at their mid to long kickouts gaining a shot differential of +4 … overall when the kickout went past the 45 Tyrone won possession on 55% (20 to 16) but managed to get three more shots off ( 11 to 8).

Players with >= 2 shots from play

  Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Matthew Donnelly (Tyrone) 5 2 40% +0.103
N Kelly (Kildare) 4 2 50% +0.189
P Cribben (Kildare) 4 1 25% -0.601
J Doyle (Kildare) 3 2 67% 0.868
E O’Flaherty (Kildare) 3 1 33% -0.041
P O’Neill (Kildare) 3 1 33% -0.144
S Cavanagh (Tyrone) 3 1 33% -0.394
Mark Donnelly (Tyrone) 2 1 50% -0.330
S O’Neill (Tyrone) 2 0 0% -0.831
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