Dublin V Meath

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Return Vs Expected
Dublin 38 26 68% 15 58% +1.87
Meath 35 26 74% 14 54% -1.66
avg 38.5 27.6 71.7% 13.9 50.4% 0.00

I was surprised at the relatively good returns produced by this game. The game appeared to have a bit of an uncontrolled edge to it – lots of misplaced balls, simple passes going astray etc.; the returns, showing just about average Shot Rates and above average Success Rates, would appear to give an indication of controlled accuracy.

Part of the answer to this dichotomy comes in the below average number of possessions. You would expect the relatively open nature of the game (contrast to Kerry V Tyrone) to produce a higher number of possessions. The relative lack of possessions shows the sloppiness that afflicted the game at times – neither team could make the ball stick up front often enough. Long direct balls were being intercepted, or punched away, on a frequent basis ensuring that the forwards didn’t get (enough) clean possession. When the ball did stick both teams used it effectively. It was the very end product – the shooting – that had a semblance of controlled accuracy.

From play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
Dublin 22 11 50% +1.24
Meath 17 7 41% -1.07
avg 20.5 9.2 44.9% 0.00

From deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
B Brogan (Dublin) 4 4 100% +1.24
B Farrell (Meath) 8 6 75% -0.73
J Sheridan (Meath) 1 1 100% +0.14
team avgs 7.2 4.8 66.2% 0.00

That old nutshell – Dublin’s supporting cast. Bernard Brogan was back on song hitting 8 scores from 10 shots (including frees); the other 5 starting forwards however hit 3 from 10. The below table shows the returns of the 5 starting forwards (and Cluxton on deadballs) in each of the games Dublin has played to date

Game Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
Louth 27 14 52% -0.24
Wexford 18 10 57% +1.09
Meath 10 3 30% -1.15

They are essentially average. Now with Bernard Brogan in the form he has shown in the Louth & Meath games this may well suffice. If the Wexford version of Bernard Brogan shows up – or even an average version – then Dublin will struggle against better teams. Kevin McManamon is the one most likely to step up but Dublin supporters will be hoping that Sunday was an aberration. If McManamon is only taking two shots a game then the burden on Brogan will only intensify.

What of Meath? It’s very hard to determine anything concrete from the numbers. The fact that they were so far down for most of the game,and thus went for goal (4 shots, 1 goal) where others would have popped a point, definitely hurt their returns however they had a more fundamental problem in actually getting enough shots off. They only had 17 shots from play (average is 21). Dublin did foul a bit more than average when they got the ball inside however with natural strikers of the ball like Farrell, Sheridan & Reilly you would want more than 17 shots from play.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
B Brogan (Dublin) 6 4 67% +1.11
G Reilly (Meath) 6 3 50% +0.25
P Flynn (Dublin) 3 0 0% -1.01
E O’Gara (Dublin) 3 2 67% +0.70
B Farrell (Meath) 3 1 33% -0.59
A Brogan (Dublin) 2 2 100% +1.14
K McManamon (Dublin) 2 1 50% +0.14
J Sheridan (Meath) 2 0 0% -0.79
MD Macauley (Dublin) 2 0 0% -1.08
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