Dublin V Westmeath 2015 Leinster Championship

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Attacks	Attack %	Shots	Shot %	Scores	Success %	Weighting
Dublin	65	52	80%	38	73%	15	39%	-2.722
Westmeath	49	26	53%	20	77%	6	30%	-4.353
Avg		37.0		28.7	77.7%	14.7	51.2%

Whatever way you look at it Dublin have had two pretty amazing shooting performance in their last two games

Their points per possession far outstripped any other performance this year whilst their weighting in both games were two of the top three produced since 2012. They were bound to come back to Earth/regress to the mean/ drop off that pace but the fall off was pretty drastic. Their shooting was very poor here.

With Dublin taking so many shots at goal sometimes their Conversion Rate can take a hit but not here. They had three shots at goal scoring 2-01. Thus when going for a point, including from deadballs, they converted at a very low 35% (0 – 12 from 35 shots) with a weighting of -4.334.

Part of the problem – as can be seen in the shot chart below – was that only 20 % (6 out of 30) of their point attempts from play came from the two central zones. Against Longford this was 60% (21 of 35) and against Kildare it was 55% (17 of 31).

So in a few respects job done from Westmeath. They restricted Dublin to 3 goal shots and forced them to shoot from wide where Dublin executed poorly. This came at the expense of their own attacking game plan however. They were only able to move ~50% of their possessions into Dublin’s 45 (Longford 59%, Kildare 83%) and whilst their Shot Rate was about average the very poor Success Rate of 30% (not to mention the weighting of -4.4) tells you that the shots they attempted were poorly executed.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
Dublin	33	13	39%	-0.798
Westmeath	15	4	27%	-2.782
Avgs	21.4	9.7	45.3%

We have touched on the main points above so won’t rehash.

For the first time this Summer Dublin faced a very defensive team so I was on the lookout for anything that may have changed since the Donegal defeat last year. We have heard of Dublin introducing a basketball coach to help them gain an understanding of space and within the first 20 minutes you could see their influence in how Dublin forwards “screened” opposition backs clearing space for the attacker. Three snapshot examples below.

To my mind there is no doubt that the Dublin player without the ball is attempting to block off the opposition defender and the methodology definitely looks coached. If anyone else sets up as defensively as Westmeath it will be interesting to see if this continues.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
D Rock (Dublin)	3	2	67%	-0.610
B Brogan (Dublin)	1	0	0%	-0.820
D Connolly (Dublin)	1	0	0%	-0.494
J Heslin (Westmeath)	4	2	50%	-0.751
K Martin (Westmeath)	1	0	0%	-0.820
team avgs	7.2	4.9	68.7%

A pretty poor day all round.

Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the above table was that Dean Rock missed one. Coming in to this game he was at a Conversion Rate of 96% (22 from 23) from the league semi-final onwards. He’s still on a ridiculous 92% but the one he missed, whilst of the longer variety, was still well within range as can be seen below

Kickouts

Dublin’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into an attack	%	Shot	%
Dublin	11	100%	10	91%	8	73%
Westmeath	–	0%	–	0%	–	0%
Westmeath’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into an attack	%	Shot	%
Dublin	12	39%	12	100%	9	75%
Westmeath	19	61%	11	58%	9	47%

A prime example of how stats can be misleading. Overall Westmeath basically broke even on kickouts however when we break them down by team we can see that Dublin won all their kickouts (which I’m not sure has happened before).

Looking at Westmeath’s kickouts in isolation they appear to be in control as they gained possession on 60%. Take out short kickouts however and the split is 50:50

This game also shows the affect that setbacks can have. Westmeath gained control on their first nine short kickouts and whilst they only converted one of those nine possessions to a point they did manage four attacks. Then they had a terrible lapse at the start of the second half when Dublin pushed up and scored two goals off two short kickouts. Westmeath didn’t attempt another short one thereafter.

I guess the old Mike Tyson quote of everyone having a plan until they get punched in the mouth still rings through.

Turnovers

Team giving up the ball	Pass	In the Tackle	Shot	Other
Dublin	17	4	5	5
Longford	16	10	9	2

A very loose game with 68 turnovers in total best demonstrated by the fact that in their last two games combined 6 Dublin hand passes went astray. Here it was 9. No doubt the review session will be uncomfortable for a number of players but especially MD MacAuley. It may be unfair to single out one player but he looks like he’s struggling to get to the pitch of the game following his absence. I have him tagged for 6 turnovers with Connolly the next highest on 4 (all passes). MacAuley has time on his side but from here on in Dublin can’t have two of their main attacking threats coughing up the ball on 10 occasions.

Shot Charts

Dublin’s shooting

Westmeath’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play,

Players with >= 3 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
C Kilkenny (Dublin)	6	3	50%	+0.379
D Connolly (Dublin)	5	3	60%	1.013
B Brogan (Dublin)	5	2	40%	-0.067
J McCaffrey (Dublin)	3	1	33%	-0.147
J Heslin (Westmeath)	3	1	33%	-0.345
P Flynn (Dublin)	3	0	0%	-1.091
D Glennon (Westmeath)	3	0	33%	-1.382

Tags: 2015, championship, Dublin, Westmeath