Dublin V Fermanagh 2015 All Ireland QF

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team Possessions Attacks Attack % Shots Shot % Scores Success % Weighting
Dublin 59 48 81% 38 79% 25 66% +7.647
Fermanagh 55 40 73% 33 83% 16 48% +0.708
Avg 37.0 28.7 77.7% 14.7 51.2%

Note that the 1st Fermanagh goal is not included in the above as it did not come from a shot

After their blip against Westmeath Dublin’s shooting was back on form. The last six games, including the league semi-final and final, have returned Conversion Rates of 61%, 67%, 74%, 64%, 39% and 66%. The average is 51%.

Here the foundation was laid in the first half when they converted a whopping 82% of shots with a weighting of +6.55. All this was from play with only one shot at goal. They did something very similar to Kildare where they scored 3-10 off 19 shots (+4.28) in the first half. Such accurate bombardments are incredibly tough to resist.

Fermanagh have been inundated with praise for their efforts and rightly so. Now whilst the game was not a contest, and we must factor in the fact that Dublin’s efforts waned in the second half, they more or less matched Dublin in terms of possessions and shots. Their shooting did not match Dublin but it was not because they were poor – they were average. It was just that Dublin were, once again, stellar.

Shots from Play

Team Shots Scores Success % Weighting
Dublin 35 22 63% +6.551
Fermanagh 26 11 42% -0.078
Avgs 21.4 9.7 45.3%

Where to start. Bernard Brogan grabbed 1-06 from 9 shots getting 0 – 02 with his two left footed attempts and netting his only goal bound effort. He has been uber efficient in front of goal scoring 5-00 from the six goal attempts he’s had this year and getting 0-16 from his 24 point attempts. That’s a combined Conversion Rate of 70% with a weighting of +6.93. We are talking James O’Donoghue from last year.

Dean Rock was next on the list grabbing 0-04 from 5 attempts with his only miss being a goal attempt blocked early in the second half. He scored one beauty at the top of D where he gathered a high ball, dropped and swivelled. He has still to prove himself against tougher opposition but accuracy of his level does him no harm. Plus you have to imagine his deadball proficiency will see him in the starting 15 for the semi-final.

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success % Weighting
D Rock (Dublin) 3 3 100% +1.096
S Quigley (Fermanagh) 5 4 80% +1.196
T Corrigan (Fermanagh) 2 1 50% -0.41
team avgs 7.2 4.9 68.7%

Rock continues on his merry way. Since the league semi-final against Monaghan he is converting at a hardly believable 93%; 28 from 30 including 4 from 4 on 45s.

No one, in the now 4 years we have data for, comes near this level of accuracy. B Brogan had historically struggled on frees and whilst Rock’s accuracy has undoubtedly added an extra dimension to the Dublin game I do wonder if Brogan’s resurgence this year has anything to do with him not having to take frees. He looks “freer” this year than he has for the last few. Another reason to start Rock?

Quigley had a very good day on frees nailing two outside the 45 in the second half; his only miss was in the 69th minute from the right – the “wrong” side for a right footed kicker.

Kickouts

Dublin’s kickouts Won % Turned into an attack % Shot %
Dublin 22 81% 19 86% 16 73%
Fermanagh 5 19% 5 100% 4 80%
Fermanagh’s kickouts Won % Turned into an attack % Shot %
Dublin 9 26% 8 89% 6 67%
Fermanagh 26 74% 17 65% 13 50%

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the day was how well Fermanagh fared on kickouts. We all know Dublin’s providence in this area but the last day Fermanagh, on kickouts that travelled past the 45, lost the battle 8 – 6.

Here nine of their kickouts went short yielding 0 – 03 whilst they won 65% (17 of 26) of those that travelled past the 45. Winning possession on 74% of your own kickouts is very acceptable – Westmeath managed 61% whilst Longford were at 44%.

Again on Dublin contestable kickouts Fermanagh were fine winning 5 of the 10. The problem was that Dublin went short on 63% of their kickouts and scored an incredible 1-10 from those 17 kickouts.

To put that in some perspective they score 0.76 points from the 17 possessions that emanated from short kickouts; they scored 0.38 points from all other possessions.

Turnovers

Team giving up the ball Pass In the Tackle Shot Other
Dublin 12 7 3 2
Fermanagh 16 5 5 1

A tidier game from Dublin after the 31 turnovers conceded against Westmeath. The last day the main culprit was MacAuley – here it was, surprisingly, Paul Flynn. I have him tagged for 5 turnovers with 3 of those passes going astray. As ever highlighting one player can be misleading, as we are only listing the negative plays, still it was by no means his finest day at the office.

Shot Charts

Dublin’s shooting
Dublin shooting (V Fermanagh)

Fermanagh’s shooting
Fermanagh shooting (v Dublin)
x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play,

Players with >= 3 shots from play

I wasn’t sure where to put this but we have to acknowledge Quigley’s single handed attempts to drag Fermanagh into the game. And I mean single handed – Fermanagh’s shot sequence from the 35th min was

Quigley, Mulrone, Quigley, Quigley, Quigley, Quigley, Quigley, Kelly, Quigley, Quigley, Quigley

In fairness the returns show that he was more than capable of taking those shots – but it is still some sequence!

Shots Scores Success % Weighting
B Brogan (Dublin) 9 7 78% +2.482
S Quigley (Fermanagh) 7 4 57% +1.079
B Mulrone (Fermanagh) 6 3 50% +0.441
D Rock (Dublin) 5 4 80% +1.949
P Andrews (Dublin) 5 3 60% +1.166
C Kilkenny (Dublin) 4 3 75% +1.197
D Connolly (Dublin) 3 2 67% +0.968
T Corrigan (Fermanagh) 3 2 67% +0.828
P Flynn (Dublin) 3 2 67% +0.578
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One Response to “Dublin V Fermanagh 2015 All Ireland QF”

  1. Kerry V Kildare 2015 All Ireland QF | dontfoul Says:

    […] Shining a light onto GAA stats « Dublin V Fermanagh 2015 All Ireland QF […]

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