Dublin V Westmeath 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Dublin 49 42 86% 23 55% +2.3558
Westmeath 32 23 72% 9 39% -1.692
2012 avg 35.28 27.02 76.6% 13.96 51.67%

Following Kerry-Tipperary this is another game where one team was utterly dominant.

Prior to Westmeath taking their first shot from play in the 23rd minute Dublin had taken 16 shots. 15 of those shots were from play with only 5 coming under any form of pressure. This lack of pressure was not due to Westmeath tactical naivety; they effectively had 12 behind the ball. It was more due to the precision of Dublin’s attacking play. Some of the kick passing from Dublin was sublime, hitting forwards in stride and in space.

Shots from play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Dublin 34 17 50% +2.6022
Westmeath 15 4 27% -1.454
2012 avg 20.14 9.36 46.47%

The average number of shots from play for a team in 2012 was 20 … Dublin had 19 by half time.

The main protagonists’ returns are listed below. Many a time on the blog I have indicated that the support cast behind Brogan wasn’t backing him up on a consistent basis. This game saw a mixed bag on this front with Andrews & Flynn having excellent games, Kilkenny & Mannion having relatively quiet shooting days whilst Connolly & Brogan’s returns were below average. Outside of Brogan the returns for the other 5 starters up front were a Success Rate of 52% (12/23) and a weighting of +1.843. Dublin will take that knowing Brogan can hit form at any stage.

Connolly’s returns are somewhat skewed by the fact he had 3 attempts for a goal but didn’t convert any. For Dublin this may be the only real negative from the game; they had 5 shots for a goal but only converted 1. Again I’m sure the narrative internally is positive in the sense that they are making the chances but in tighter games these chances will have to be taken.

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
B Brogan (Dublin) 5 5 100% +0.576
D Rock (Dublin) 1 1 100% +0.274
P Mannion (Dublin) 1 0 0% -0.548
S Cluxton (Dublin) 1 0 0% -0.548
J Heslin (Westmeath) 7 5 71% +0.242
P Sharry(Westmeath) 1 0 0% -0.481
2012 team avgs 6.88 4.6 66.9%

Such a low weighting for a 100% return shows that all of Brogan’s frees were in the “easy” category. Heslin actually had quite a good day from deadballs after missing the first two but Westmeath desperately needed those initial scores.

Shot Charts
Interesting that anything Dublin hit, from either long or wide, was missed. They have the players to hit those shots in Connolly, Flynn & Brogan but it didn’t happen here.

Dublin’s shooting

Dublin shooting

Westmeath’s shooting

Westmeath shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

Dub-West kickouts

The usual tables re kickouts are attached. What may be of more interest, given the general discussion on the game and how Kildare approached this area the last time they played, is Dublin’s kickouts.

Dublin Won Shots Scores
Short 8 4 1
Mid/Long 10 4 3

Westmeath dropped off allowing Dublin to have possession on short kick outs. Did it work? To a point. Dublin only got 0-01 from the possession that emanated from short kickouts as against 1-02 from kickouts that passed the 45m line. Dublin did get 4 shots from each though.

There does appear to be merit, on very limited data, in trying this (letting Dublin have the short kickout) but will Kildare follow through after being so burned in the league?

Players with >= 2 shots from play
We’ve already touched on Connolly’s poor numbers. Glennon’s returns were also poor however every shot he took came under severe pressure and being their only real threat he probably felt he needed to take on the more marginal shots.

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
D Connolly (Dublin) 8 3 38% -0.233
D Glennon (Westmeath) 7 2 29% -0.687
B Brogan (Dublin) 6 2 33% -0.373
P Andrews (Dublin) 5 4 80% +1.653
P Flynn (Dublin) 5 3 60% +0.908
C Kilkenny (Dublin) 3 1 33% -0.551
K Martin (Westmeath) 2 1 50% +0.32
P Mannion (Dublin) 2 1 50% +0.066
C McCormack (Westmeath) 2 0 0% -0.645
J Heslin (Westmeath) 2 0 0% -0.761
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