Westmeath V Dublin 2014 League

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Westmeath 27 19 70% 8 42% -1.394
Dublin 49 33 67% 14 42% -3.552
Champ (’12 & ’13 avg) 35.8 27.6 77.2% 14.1 51.0%

Last week’s game between Kildare and Mayo gave us a glimpse of the “what might be” with high scoring and excellent shooting. The fare in Mullingar was more along the lines of what we expect in the league.

Whilst Dublin had a lot of possession (49 possessions was the highest recorded in the 25 2013 Championship games covered – as it happens by Dublin against Westmeath!) they were poor at converting that possession into shots. If they were only meeting the average they should have had 38 shots – in the aforementioned Championship game they had 42.

The Success Rates were below average as well. The refrain will be that “it’s only the league” however it is generally the league where you want your squad depth, your second rank of players, to put their hand up and make a push for a place in the Summer. McManamon & O’Gara are probably in Dublin’s second rank of forwards (Flynn, Kilkenny, Connolly, Mannion, B Brogan & Andrews being the nominal starting six with O’Gara, McManamon, A Brogan & Rock pushing for a starters role) however combined they converted one of eight shots. They weren’t necessarily difficult shots either with five of the eight occurring inside the 20m line.

As an aside neither Mannion nor Kilkenny attempted a shot from play.

For all Dublin’s struggles they put themselves in a position to win. Westmeath were unable to get enough ball to stick up front. With only 27 possessions their Shot Rate and Success Rate would have to have been excellent to put enough scores on the board. Neither were.

For Westmeath to come out on top they had to have everything go their way. There were signs however in the first few minutes that this wasn’t going to be the case. Three of Dublin’s first four shots shouldn’t have occurred
• The first shot was from a free right in front of the posts for an off the ball tug of the shirt – point
• The subsequent kickout went straight to an unmarked Dublin player – point
• A few minutes later O’Gara fluffed his goal shot but the Westmeath player that picked up the loose ball was ushered over the line – 45

These were all eminently preventable and the sort of mistakes that Westmeath will need to eradicate

Shots from Play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Westmeath 16 5 31% -2.226
Dublin 21 7 33% -2.183
Champ avgs (’12 & ’13) 20.3 9.2 45.4%

Not much more to add here. Both team’s shooting was well below the average

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
S Cluxton (Dublin) 5 3 60% +0.661
C Kilkenny (Dublin) 4 3 75% -0.581
P Mannion (Dublin) 2 0 0% -1.609
P Hudson (Dublin) 1 1 100% +0.160
J Heslin (Westmeath) 3 3 100% +0.832
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ) 7.3 4.9 66.7%

A mixed bag. Mannion missed two very, very simple frees and whilst Kilkenny’s Success Rate was 75% his negative weighting tells you that the one he missed was a sitter.

To offset those poor displays Heslin’s striking was excellent particularly the monster free he converted from outside the 45m line in the first half. Then there was Cluxton.

A 60% Success Rate for Cluxton could easily be taken out of context and viewed as disappointing however for the type of deadball he is being asked to convert it is excellent. He is a phenomenal deadball striker. Case in point; he has converted 75% of all 45s charted – the average is 47%. The 60% is more a reflection on how stats can be misused than Cluxton’s ability

Kickouts
Dublin, as is their wont, were just too strong for Westmeath in this facet of the game. A lot of focus is given to how Dublin use their own kickouts and again they were very good in this game securing possession on 80% of their kickouts and only coughing up a shot to Westmeath from one of their 15 kickouts.

On top of this Dublin hemmed in Westmeath on their kickouts. Not only did they win ball on more of Westmeath’s kickouts than Westmeath (15 to 13) did they also stopped Westmeath from using what kickout possession they did win to launch attacks. Westmeath only got a shot from 31% of their own kickouts that they won – Dublin’s return was 67% from theirs.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
J Heslin (Westmeath) 5 2 40% -0.548
K McManamon (Dublin) 5 1 20% -1.466
P Hudson (Dublin) 3 3 100% +1.865
C Reddin (Dublin) 3 2 67% +0.643
E O’Gara (Dublin) 3 0 0% -1.126
D Glennon (Westmeath) 3 0 0% -1.284
D Byrne (Dublin) 2 1 50% +0.281
G Egan (Westmeath) 2 0 0% -0.719
P Sharry (Westmeath) 2 0 0% -0.767
P Flynn (Dublin) 2 0 0% -0.767
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