Monaghan V Tyrone 2015 All Ireland QF

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team Possessions Attacks Attack % Shots Shot % Scores Success % Weighting
Monaghan 46 38 83% 27 71% 14 52% +1.466
Tyrone 43 37 86% 30 81% 18 60% +1.643
Avg 37.0 28.7 77.7% 14.7 51.2%

The above table is a little quirky. Tyrone’s shooting accuracy was excellent at 60% but their weighting – as judged against Monaghan’s returns – does not reflect this. Normally I introduce the shot charts at the bottom of the piece but it is instructive to look at Monaghan’s at this juncture.

Monaghan shooting (V Tyrone 15 QF)

What immediately jumps out is how clean the two central – and thus high scoring – areas are. From the arc of the D in to the square Monaghan only attempted one shot from play – and that was the last minute goal attempt from McManus. Monaghan’s weighting is as good as Tyrone’s despite the lower Success Rate because they were trying shots that were a lot harder.

Part of this was due, undoubtedly, to Monaghan’s methodical build up play which allowed Tyrone to block up the middle. But a great amount of credit must go to Tyrone’s defensive structure & effort on the day. If they keep their central channels as clean against Kerry they will believe they are well on their way.

Further to the disparity in the weighting the below chart shows, were the game to be played 20,000 times with the same shots taken, how often Tyrone would win – 74% of the time. In the context of the shots taken throughout the game Monaghan never had a chance.

Mon-Tyr outcomes

Shots from Play

Team Shots Scores Success % Weighting
Monaghan 18 8 44% +1.105
Tyrone 22 10 45% +0.070
Avgs 21.4 9.7 45.3%

Initially I believed the discrepancy in shot accuracy & weighting would be entirely down to the types of deadballs attempted – Monaghan trying long range & Tyrone having shots closer in to goal. There was evidence of this but the logic flowed through to the attempts from play as well.

Both teams had a Success Rate of 45% but Monaghan scored 1 point more than expected – again the accuracy was there but the volume, and shot location, meant that they were relying on individuals to produce excellent long range displays. Some did (Duffy & McManus) but the majority did not.

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success % Weighting
C McAliskey (Tyrone) 4 4 100% 0.787
D McCurry (Tyrone) 4 4 100% +0.786
C McManus (Monaghan) 6 5 83% 0.944
R Beggan (Monaghan) 2 0 0% -0.763
P Finlay (Monaghan) 1 1 100% 0.180
team avgs 7.2 4.9 68.7%

Very good striking from Tyrone with McCurry & McAliskey converting 8 from 8. Whilst the majority were definitely of the more “gettable” variety the combined weighting of +1.57 indicates that the expected return from these 8 frees was 6.5 points; they converted all the ones they should have and then also scored from a 45 and one tough one out right on the 20m line.

From their 9 attempts Monaghan would have been expected to return 5.7 points. Their attempts were much harder than Tyrone’s but given their usual excellence they will not be happy with basically average returns – especially Beggan who dropped both his long range efforts short.

One of the hidden value adds of players are frees they win inside the opposition’s 45 which lead to more productive shots for other players. Séan Cavanagh only had one shot all day however he won three of the frees that Tyrone converted. Similarly Mattie Donnelly’s runs earned two scores from frees (though given the commentary around this game Cavanagh’s free winning ability is more front and centre than is the norm!)

Kickouts

Monaghan’s kickouts Won % Turned into an attack % Shot %
Monaghan 22 96% 18 82% 11 50%
Tyrone 1 4% 1 100% 1 100%
Tyrone’s kickouts Won % Turned into an attack % Shot %
Monaghan 6 30% 5 83% 3 50%
Tyrone 14 70% 12 86% 10 71%

Monaghan won a quite ridiculous 22 of their own 23 kickouts. This was aided of course by the fact that they went short on 68% of their kickouts (that the TV cameras caught). Monaghan scored 0-06 on their 22 wins but also gave up a point on the one they lost (a horrible short one down the middle). A net gain of 0.22pts per kickout

The TV cameras missed quite a few of where the Tyrone kickouts landed so we can’t make too many absolute statements on length. However they gained possession on 14 of their 20 kickouts scoring 0-09 and allowing 0-02 – a net gain 0.35pts per kickout.

In terms of the kickout battle you have to say that Tyrone won despite the macro level results showing that Monaghan won 65% of all kickouts.

One further point to note was how Tyrone were able to move the ball on their kickouts when they absolutely had to. Thrice in the second half Monaghan scored inspirational long range points (Duffy x2 & McManus) only for Tyrone to take the subsequent kickout and score a point from the possession won. Absolute momentum killers.

Turnovers

Team giving up the ball Pass In the Tackle Shot Other
Monaghan 12 6 5 1
Tyrone 5 4 3 4

The possession led nature of the game is reflected in the low turnover volumes. Tyrone in particular were excellent at retaining possession; in the second half they only coughed up the ball seven times.

Shot Charts

Tyrone’s shooting
Tyrone shooting (V Monaghan 15 QF)
x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play,

Players with >= 3 shots from play

Shots Scores Success % Weighting
D McCurry (Tyrone) 5 2 40% -0.138
Mattie Donnelly (Tyrone) 5 2 40% -0.564
O Duffy (Monaghan) 4 2 50% +0.258
C McManus (Monaghan) 3 2 67% +0.869
D Mone (Monaghan) 3 1 33% +0.031
C McAliskey (Tyrone) 3 1 33% -0.193
P Harte (Tyrone) 3 1 33% -0.193
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