Dublin V Mayo 2015 All Ireland SF Replay

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Attacks	Attack %	Shots	Shot %	Scores	Success %	Weighting
Dublin	50	39	78%	30	77%	18	60%	+4.010
Mayo	45	26	58%	22	85%	15	68%	+2.959
Avg		37.0		28.7	77.7%	14.7	51.2%

Once again brilliant accuracy from Dublin. Last week that accuracy enabled them to draw a game where they produced six shots less than Mayo; here that accuracy was maintained on a higher shot count thus enabling them to win comfortably (on the scoreboard at least).

One major shift in the numbers, from the first encounter, was Dublin’s ability to move the ball into Mayo’s 45. The previous week Dublin had 51 possessions but only manufactured 27 attacks; a 53% Attack Rate. They had to be ruthlessly efficient in their shot selection and finishing. Here, as a percentage, they were unable to produce the same volume of shots from their attacks – 77% shot rate versus 89% the last day – but the huge increase in the volume of attacks overcame this. It wasn’t just in the second half either when the introduction of McManamon & MacAuley brought new attacking impetus. Both halves’ returns, 72% in the first & 86% in the second, were well ahead of the 53% recorded previously.

What of Mayo? Last week we showed their half splits to highlight just how much they improved in the second half. Here we show them for exactly the opposite reason.

Team	Possessions	Attacks	Attack %	Shots	Shot %	Scores	Success %	Weighting
1st Half	28	17	61%	15	88%	10	67%	+1.988
2nd Half	17	9	53%	7	78%	5	71%	+0.971

Mayo only managed nine attacks in the second half and despite their shooting holding up (78% Shot Rate & 71% Accuracy) they were never going to be able to overcome such a paucity of attacks; especially against a team like Dublin. Over the four halves Mayo’s volume of attacks to Dublin’s was +3, +9, -4 & -9. For three quarters of this tie they were ahead on the attack volume but Dublin’s accuracy was keeping them in step. Once Mayo’s attack volume dropped off that was the game.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
Dublin	26	16	62%	+4.644
Mayo	15	9	60%	+2.173
Avgs	21.4	9.7	45.3%

The last day Dublin scored two goals from three attempts. Although Dublin’s conversion rate on goal shots has been high all year the thinking was that Mayo would be happy with that; restricting Dublin’s goal shots is half the battle and eventually their production would regress to the mean.

So much for that. Dublin had five shots at goal and scored 3 – 01. The only shot not to produce something was Fenton’s pull across the box that Brogan converted. By contrast Mayo created just the one goal attempt which O’Connor converted. Although it was one defensive lapse over 70 minutes that goal will have given the on looking Eamon Fitzmaurice some food for thought. It really was poor defending from Dublin.

O’Carroll has O’Connor covered however he has to come out and meet Moran due to some very poor tackling from Cooper & O’Sullivan. Moran should never be allowed turn in that scenario – you can see O’Donoghue, or Cooper, meeting a similar ball and spinning on a sixpence.

Some of the point taking in the first half was sublime with the teams combining for a 65% Success Rate – the average on point attempts is ~45%. As can be seen from the shot charts below though there were very different patterns in their shooting. 7 of Dublin’s 12 point attempts came from inside the 20m line; only 3 of Mayo’s 11 point attempts were taken that close in.

One final difference was who took Dublin’s shots. Andrews was sublime – and deserved of the man of the match accolade – but the last day Dublin’s backs only had one shot (6% of 18 attempts) between them. Here they had six (23% of 26 attempts) with McCarthy & McCaffrey chipping in alongside McMahon’s four attempts.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
D Rock (Mayo)	4	2	50%	-0.634
C O’Connor (Mayo)	6	5	83%	+0.722
A Moran (Mayo)	1	1	100%	+0.064
team avgs	7.2	4.9	68.7%

Another excellent display from O’Connor. Over the two games he converted 94% of his deadball attempts with his only miss coming in this game from an absolute hit and hope about 55m out. Of the 0-15 he scored the expected return was 0-12; his deadball accuracy added 3 points to Mayo’s total. After what was an average campaign, for him, leading up to the semi-final (15 from 21 combined in the Galway, Sligo & Donegal games) he has once again established himself as the top deadball proponent in the game.

Dean Rock by contrast has struggled. Here he converted the two that he would have been expected to get however missed two longer range efforts to go with the one he missed in the drawn game. His record for the year is still very strong at 85% (29 from 34) but his reputation has, undoubtedly, suffered.

Finally much was made of Dublin’s indiscipline the last day giving away 10 frees within scoring range. There was a stage in the first half where you feared the same thing was about to happen when two quick frees were conceded with 13m tagged on to both for indiscipline. The defence did well to regain their collective composure; having the steadying influence of O’Carroll, and releasing McMahon & McCarthy forward, undoubtedly played in to this.

Kickouts

Dublin’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into an attack	%	Shot	%
Dublin	17	94%	13	76%	12	71%
Mayo	1	6%	1	100%	0	0%
Mayo’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into an attack	%	Shot	%
Dublin	6	25%	6	100%	4	67%
Mayo	18	75%	12	67%	10	56%

In the first game Mayo managed to get their hands on six of Dublin’s kickouts. Here there was only the one. Mayo let Dublin have the short kickouts despite the fact that they won 4 of the 6 Dublin kickouts that went past the 45 the last day. The one they won in this game was the only one to travel past the 45.

Mayo were content to let Dublin go short as they believed they could turn over the ball carrier once engaged. In many ways that worked the first day as Dublin scored a net 0-03 from the 16 short kickouts. The problem here however was that Dublin adapted. Of the 17 short kickouts Dublin “won” they got a shot from 12 of the possessions and scored 1 – 07. In the first half that stat line was 0 – 06 off 8 shots from 12 short kickouts. Mayo needed to switch tactics early once they realised their containment policy wasn’t working.

In the first half Mayo went short on six kickouts scoring 0 – 02. Of the remaining seven – that landed past the 45 – Mayo were on top winning five and scoring 0 – 02. So in the first half Mayo won their own kickout 11 – 2 and scored 0 – 04. Not as prolific as Dublin but they were undoubtedly in control. So what happened in the second half?

Mayo went short with their first kickout and then went long & mid with the next two. Dublin won the long kickout. A sign maybe *but* given Mayo’s dominance of the contestable kickouts in the first half, and the first game, not alarming. Next Barry Moran goes off just before a Mayo kickout that led to Brogan’s goal. Should Moran’s absence have given Hennelly pause about going down the middle? Perhaps but again Mayo, in the round, were in control of their own kickouts.

More important than the absence of Moran, or previous returns, though was the fact that Hennelly wasn’t set for that kickout. He was messing with his laces and gloves and was rushed – to the extent that he only had one glove on when he took the kickout – by a combination of the crowd/referee. He was distracted and seems to have taken the old fashioned approach of booting the ball as far away as possible.

Now the kickout itself wasn’t to blame for the goal but it did appear to rattle Hennelly – supposition I know but did he take some responsibility for rushing the kickout? We’ll never know but what we saw next was Connolly getting a quick shot from Hennelly’s subsequent kickout followed by another long kickout that Dublin won – and that led to McMahon’s goal.

Two goals and a Connolly wide from three Mayo kickouts in ~90 seconds.

Turnovers

Team giving up the ball	Pass	In the Tackle	Shot	Other
Dublin	10	8	5	2
Mayo	16	4	4	2

In the drawn game we highlighted how two midfielders – S O’Shea and Fenton – had led the way with six and four each. Remarkably O’Shea managed to top the charts again here with five turnovers despite only being on the pitch for 38 minutes.

Fenton was much improved with just the one turnover attributed to him. Top of the charts for Dublin was Andrews but I’m sure he’ll be forgiven. Less so next on the list. I noted Rock as being responsible for four turnovers. Given his relative lack of success from frees, and the fact that he only managed to attempt one shot from play over the near 90 minutes he was on the pitch, he really needed a cleaner game going in to the final

Shot Charts

Dublin’s shooting

Mayo’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play,

Players with >= 3 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
P Andrews (Dublin)	6	5	83%	+2.314
P McMahon (Dublin)	4	3	75%	+0.739
K McLoughlin (Mayo)	4	1	25%	-0.827
B Brogan (Dublin)	3	2	67%	+0.853
C Kilkenny (Dublin)	3	2	67%	+0.745

Tags: 2015, championship, Dublin, Mayo