Dublin V Mayo 2015 All Ireland SF

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Attacks	Attack %	Shots	Shot %	Scores	Success %	Weighting
Dublin	51	27	53%	24	89%	14	58%	+3.059
Mayo	51	39	76%	30	77%	16	53%	-0.262
Avg		37.0		28.7	77.7%	14.7	51.2%

Overall the teams had the same volume of possession and ended up with the same total but that’s where the similarities end. The destination may have been the same but the journey was completely different. Dublin relied on shooting excellence from play to convert a lower than normal number of shots whilst Mayo‘s returns were built on O’Connor’s deadball excellence. The graph below gives a sense of how much Dublin outperformed their expected return – and how Mayo were in line with their expected return for much of the game.

Dublin struggled mightily to get on the ball inside Mayo’s 45. In their four games to date their attack rate was 72%, 84%, 80% & 81%. Here Mayo restricted them to a measly 53%. Dublin were very good at getting shots off (89%) and their shooting, as highlighted above, was excellent, but they will need to move the ball a lot more efficiently the next day.

What of Mayo? Their half splits are below

Team	Possessions	Attacks	Attack %	Shots	Shot %	Scores	Success %	Weighting
1st Half	24	17	71%	10	59%	7	70%	+0.518
2nd Half	27	22	81%	20	91%	9	45%	-0.780

We can see that their second half was much better than the first except in accuracy but that is an anomaly based on the mixture of shots. In the first half Mayo only had four shots from play with Keegan’s first minute point the only one to register. The excellent first half accuracy (70%) is due to the volume of frees they had in relation to the paucity of the shots from play. As their volume of shots from play increased in the second half so the accuracy dropped.

There was also a huge increase in Shot Rate in the second half. Only twice in 22 attacks did they fail to manufacture a shot (now there is an argument to be made about some of the shots but that’s another day’s work). Undoubtedly the game plan changed as they went to a more natural running & pressing game but there was also a lot more control. In the first half Mayo coughed up 16 turnovers including 8 passes; in the second half that was 10 turnovers with just 3 misplaced passes.

Shots from Play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
Dublin	18	12	67%	+4.272
Mayo	20	6	30%	-2.677
Avgs	21.4	9.7	45.3%

As noted above Mayo were very poor at creating chances in the first half managing just the four shots from play and converting one. In the second half they were much more productive with 16 shots however they only converted 31%. Within those 16 shots there was a spell at the start of the half where seven out of eight attempts were missed.

A poor day out all told which also included no clear cut goal shot manufactured from play (Moran’s shot was off a Cluxton error whilst O’Connor’s blasted left footed effort was from a quick free).

Dublin? They were excellent scoring 1-11 from 18 shots (67% Conversion Rate with a weighting of +4.272). One notable point from Dublin’s shooting was that only one of the 16 point attempts came from a back – the last conversion from McCaffrey.

Despite the high score Mayo will probably be encouraged by their defensive display. 18 shots is very low for Dublin; in the previous four games they manufactured 35, 33, 32 & 35. Of more importance was how they restricted Dublin’s goal attempts. There were three in total with two coming from the one incident.

Dublin have converted their goal chances at an abnormal rate this year (avg is ~31%, Dublin are running in the high 50 percentile). They did so again here converting two of the three goal attempts however if Mayo restrict them to just three goal shots the next day you would expect a regression.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
C O’Connor (Mayo)	10	10	100%	+2.415
D Connolly (Dublin)	2	2	100%	+0.561
S Cluxton (Dublin)	3	0	0%	-1.290
D Rock (Dublin)	1	1	0%	-0.474
team avgs	7.2	4.9	68.7%

Dublin’s fouling was dumb. That may seem harsh but there is no other word for it. Many a Dublin supporter will complain that the frees were niggly, or the Mayo man went to ground easily or ….. you get the picture. But playing the conditions is a fundamental part of any sport and after the 3rd free Dublin were on notice – from both the referee and O’Connor’s accuracy. But it wasn’t just during the game – Dublin were forewarned of O’Connor’s accuracy (see here). He was by far the most prolific, and accurate, deadball striker over the past three years.

The fouling was across the team. I noted who committed the foul for O’Connor’s 8 pointed frees and the sequence was McCarthy, Fitzsimons, McCarthy, McMahon, O’Sullivan, McCarthy, McMahon & MacAuley. McCarthy & McMahon were the main culprits but when you throw in Connolly’s foul on McLoughlin (when O’Connor took a quick one) that’s six different players giving away fouls in scoreable range.

As indicated above O’Connor is a master deadball striker but what was most impressive in this game were the two he converted outside his comfort zone. The 45 was taken right after Dublin’s 2nd goal – ice in the veins – whilst the last one was on the outer limits of his range. He can push for power when outside his comfort zone so in those circumstances – outside his range and the battle raging – that was a brilliant conversion.

Anyone who follows me on Twitter will have probably seen a chart I forwarded with Rock’s deadballs since the league SF. He was at a ridiculous 93% on 29 attempts including 3 from 3 on 45s. So what does he do here? Misses his only attempt – typical.

So with Rock off the free taking duties fell to Connolly & Cluxton. Connolly hit a wonderful one with the right from a very similar position to the last attempt that Cluxton missed. *If* there was no red card given before the free would he have taken it? Especially with Cluxton having missed his previous two.

Cluxton’s three are a mystery. Undoubtedly the frees were difficult but you’d expect him to get at least one. Up until this season he was the only player to match O’Connor’s accuracy when the difficulty of the attempt was factored in. Then he gets overtaken by Rock. Were the three misses as a result of being “cold” in games this year – or more indicative of why Rock has taken over? The answer to that will probably be given when the team is announced for the replay.

Kickouts

Dublin’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into an attack	%	Shot	%
Dublin	17	74%	11	65%	9	53%
Mayo	6	26%	6	100%	6	100%
Mayo’s kickouts	Won	%	Turned into an attack	%	Shot	%
Dublin	5	23%	3	60%	2	40%
Mayo	17	77%	10	59%	8	47%

Dublin went short on 18 kickouts losing two. The two they lost were both converted by Mayo into points including that last minute equaliser.

Of the 16 they won Dublin converted those possessions into 8 shots and scored 1-05. You can’t really isolate one kickout from the others but let’s anyway. The move that led to the Dublin penalty originated from a kickout possession however there was a pause in the move when a free kick was awarded. It could be argued that pause indicated that it was not a kickout “move” but a goal that emanated from open play (I’m stretching to make a point I know). Would Mayo take a net 0 – 03 from ~20 kickouts the next day? You bet they would.

Of the five that travelled past the 45 Mayo won four including two in those frantic last ten minutes. Mayo didn’t score from any of the four but it will definitely give Dublin pause for thought the next day. If Mayo push up on the short ones there may be more space in the middle but Connolly is out and Mayo won the majority of non short kickouts.

Mayo went short on 11 of their kickouts winning them all. They manufactured six shots and scored 0 – 03 from those possessions. Of the other 11 that travelled past the 45 Mayo won the possession battle 6 – 5.

Turnovers

Team giving up the ball	Pass	In the Tackle	Shot	Other
Dublin	16	7	1	3
Mayo	11	8	5	2

The top two individual players were two midfielders; I noted Fenton as being responsible for six turnovers whilst S O‘Shea was down for four. The six for Fenton, including five passes, will give Gavin pause for thought for the replay given how poor Dublin were at moving the ball into attack. Were these a “one off” or was it due to the nature of the game? Will Fenton be more careful with the ball the next day and would that inhibit him?

One of Mayo’s strengths is undoubtedly their forwards ability to tackle the opposition. Against Cork in last year’s quarter final they scored 1-05 from turnover’s inside the opposition’s 65. They had six such turnovers here (four of them through tackles) but only managed to get one point. They will look to improve on this return come the replay.

Shot Charts

Dublin’s shooting

Mayo’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play,

Players with >= 3 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success %	Weighting
A Moran (Mayo)	5	2	40%	-0.42
C Kilkenny (Dublin)	4	3	75%	+1.082
B Brogan (Dublin)	3	2	67%	0.885
D O’Connor (Mayo)	3	1	33%	-0.165

Tags: 2015, championship, Dublin, Mayo