Galway v Tipperary 2016 AI Quarter Final

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Team Possessions Attacks Shots Scores Exp Pts
Galway 45 32 19 1 – 10 13.53
Tipperary 60 50 42 3 – 13 27.13

Possessions, Attack Rate, Shot Rate, Expt Pts …. Tipperary blew Galway out of the water. They were so comfortable that their shooting was able to be well below par yet they could win by 10 points in a hack canter.

Generally speaking teams score at the rate of 0.3 points per possession. Having 15 more possessions in a game, which is the biggest gap this year – Monaghan had a surplus of 13 in their one sided procession against Down, gave Tipperary a ~5 point leg up.

Origination Galway Tipperary
Own kickout 16 15
Opp kickout 5 11
Turnover own 3rd 19 22
Turnover mid 3rd 4 3
Turnover opp 3rd 0 1
Other 1 8

The origination of the possessions are laid out above. We can see that the majority of Tipperary’s surplus came from the opposition’s kickout (where Tipperary won 11 to Galway’s 5) and “other”. The kickouts we’ll touch on later but “other” consists of throw-ins and possession re-gathered (not sure if that’s a word!) by a team after their own shot. Both teams split the opening throw-ins leaving Tipperary gathering seven of their own shots. Not only are they extra possessions but they are possessions gained inside the opponent’s 45. Tipperary managed a further seven shots off these possession re-gains scoring 1- 02. Now from a shooting perspective that’s not great as it is 1-02 off 14 shots however it does lead to a sense of overwhelming superiority as shots appear to land in waves constantly cranking up the pressure on the opposition

Those shot gains came in a variety of ways – balls back off the post, being first to goalkeeper parries or picking up balls further out the field after shots were blocked – and indicate perhaps just how much more alert, and on their toes, Tipperary were compared to Galway.

Galway

On much lower possession volumes Galway had to mind what ball they did have but unfortunately for them it just didn’t stick. A 71% Attack Rate (getting the ball into Tipperary’s 45) is below average whilst a shot Rate of 59% is very low. Both numbers are very far below what was required when you consider the edge Tipperary had in possessions and shots (notwithstanding the poor execution mentioned above)

Galway didn’t engage Tipperary high up the pitch so only nine of their possessions occurred outside their own kickout or their own 65m line. They had to work hard to get the ball up to the forwards and when they did they just didn’t pull the trigger. It is somewhat understandable in the second half, when the game was gone with 20 minutes to go, that they were shot shy in an attempt to get goals but in the first half, when it was there to be won, they only had 10 shots compared to Tipperary’s 24. Indeed after Danny Cummins’ point in the 14th minute which put them 0 – 04 t0 0 – 01 ahead they did not have another shot from play until Paul Conroy’s effort in the 32nd minute. In that intervening 18 minutes they had seven possessions and four attacks with just a Gary Sice missed free to show for their efforts.

Tipperary in that same period had 15 possessions, 14 attacks and 12 shots (including four on goal) scoring 1 – 06.

Galway were absolutely blitzed and the 1-01 they scored at the end of the half enabled the HT scoreboard to gloss over just how comprehensively outplayed they were in the first half.

Tipperary Shooting

That being said the Tipperary performance was not without its issues. Yes they racked up a large possession volume and their approach play was such to produce high attack & shot rates. But their shooting itself was poor.

In the previous round against Derry it was noted that whilst they had run up another big score (an impressive 1 – 21) this was achieved through volume rather than overt accuracy. Their Expt Pts total that day was +0.14 off of 37 shots. Again the 37 was high but their overall accuracy was bang on average.

Against Galway they had an even more impressive 42 shots but “only” scored 3 – 13 gaving an overall conversion rate of 38% and an Expt Pts tally of -5.13. That’s the problem with racking a possession volume through the “other” origination outlined above – you have to miss your original shot to regain the possession! We won’t see many games where you have a conversion rate less than 40% (only other winner this year was Tyrone against Donegal), such a negative Expt Pts and yet still romp to a 10 point win! So how was such a negative waiting obtained?

Goal attempts
Tipperary had a quite remarkable ten attempts at goal scoring 3 – 02. That looks like a healthy 1.10 points per attempt however the average is actually 1.19 so although the Conversion Rate here is high at 50% the goal conversion rate of 30% is below average and leads to an Expt Pts of -0.90 on goal attempts

Deadballs
Tipperary converted three of their five deadballs (again the average is ~67%) returning an Expt Pts of -0.21. Against Derry they went 9 from 13 (69% Conversion Rate; Expt Pts of -0.29) so between then O’Halloran & Quinlivan are about average; Conversion Rate of 67% & a combined Expt Pts of -0.50

Point attempts
So stripping out goal attempts and deadballs that leaves some very poor point taking. Tipperary had 27 point attempts but only scored 0 – 08; a 30% Conversion Rate with an Expt Pts return of -4.02. There is no hiding just how poor that is. The question then becomes will it be repeated?

One element of the performance that will give Tipperary solace is that they came out cold. We must remember that this was the first big Championship match in Croke Park for a lot of these players and it showed early on. Until the Quinlivan goal in the 16th minute Tipperary’s shooting from play read as 0 – 01 from 10 attempts (10% Conversion Rate) with an Expt Pts of -3.37. Whether it was the occasion or the very new test of shooting in to an empty Hill in a quarter final they were very, very poor early on. Thereafter they were much better returning 0 – 07 from 17; a low enough Conversion Rate of 41% but the Expt Pts of -0.45 shows it was only a touch below expected.

Against Derry they were 12 from 21 (57%, Expt Pts of +1.00) when attempting a point. That’s not a huge amount to go on but we can say that over the two games, apart from a 16 minute spell at the start of the Galway game which does have mitigating factors, they were about average. If they continue to produce the same volume of shots against Mayo or Tyrone as they did against Derry & Galway then they will take average shooting.

Kickouts
As noted above Tipperary were on top when it came to getting their hands on the opposition’s kickouts. Galway had 27 kickouts in total winning 16 with Tipperary claiming the other 11. That however is somewhat misleading as seven of Galway’s kickouts went short. So when Galway went past the 45 Tipperary came out on top 11 – 9.

Overall the net scoring on Galway’s kickouts was a washout (Galway scored 1- 05 from the possessions they won and let in 1-04 from the kickouts Tipperary claimed) however this may be an area of concern. Firstly Galway only scored 1-10 so to let 1-05 in from a set piece is somewhat disconcerting. Plus the goal came from a long kickout which carved open the defence once it bypassed midfield. Also will they have as much possession from either Tyrone or Mayo’s kickouts? And if not can they replace the 1-04?

Tipperary’s kickouts? Comerford has been rightly applauded for some of the pinpoint deliveries he had – especially out on the right touchline. Here again however the bare numbers can be deceiving. Tipperary gained possession 75% of the time (15 – 5) from their own kickouts 75% of the time. This however includes ten short kickouts so when the ball was contestable – landing beyond the 45 – honours were even at five apiece. Tipperary dodged a bullet here as Galway couldn’t do anything with these prime possessions, failing to register a point, but it’s hard to imagine Tyrone or Mayo remaining scoreless after winning Tipperary’s kickout(s).

Appendix

Shot Charts

Galway’s shooting

Galway shooting (V Tipperary16)

Tipperary’s shooting
Tipperary shooting (V Donegal 16)
x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half, red = goal attempt

 

Players with >= 4 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Exp Pts
M Quinlivan (Tipperary) 14 1 – 04 36% 8.59
S Walsh (Galway) 7 0 – 04 57% 4.97
K O’Halloran (Tipperary) 7 2 – 02 57% 4.55
C Sweeney (Tipperary) 6 0 – 04 67% 4.43
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