Donegal V Kerry

Listed below is Donegal’s returns in the games they have played to date. As can be seen they are (a) very consistent in the % of shots they get off and (b) successful in converting those shots. The focus has been on their running game but it is not all about power & pace – there is an intelligence behind the gameplan which ensures a consistency in the shots they take on.

Opposition	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Return Vs Expected
Vs Kerry	27	21	78%	13	62%	+2.09
Vs Down	42	31	74%	20	65%	+4.39
Vs Tyrone	29	20	69%	12	60%	+1.48
Vs Derry	36	27	75%	15	56%	+0.40
Vs Cavan	39	28	72%	17	61%	+4.76

Of more interest however may be what their opponents are doing. The table below shows that the vaunted Donegal defensive shield is working to full effect with every team producing below average returns.

Opposition	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Return Vs Expected
Kerry	33	23	70%	11	48%	-1.11
Down	34	26	76%	13	50%	-0.76
Tyrone	36	25	69%	10	40%	-2.97
Derry	30	22	73%	9	41%	-3.10
Cavan	41	26	63%	11	42%	-0.66

However if we look a little deeper the majority of the negative returns comes from Donegal’s opponents missing deadballs. They are generally allowing average returns from shooting from play (Derry’s performance excepted).

Firstly it must be noted how disciplined Donegal are in only allowing an average of 6.2 deadballs a game where the opposition felt a shot on goal was on. Generally there’s not much that Donegal can do to influence bad deadball striking from their opponents however the consistent negative returns cannot be a coincidence. Are Donegal being clever in where they foul? Could it be that the discipline they show in not fouling excessively extends to being a bit more aggresive in the tackle further out thus putting the opposition free taker in a difficult shooting position? Allow a difficult deadball instead of giving latitude to recycle?

If that is the case then how they handle Cork will be fascinating. Corks’s deadball striking against Kildare was magnificent – Donegal can’t afford to give the frees away that they did previously. Will this enable Cork to get easier shots off?

From play

Opposition	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
Kerry	18	8	44%	+0.29
Down	20	10	50%	+0.92
Tyrone	17	7	41%	-0.82
Derry	14	4	29%	-2.06
Cavan	22	9	41%	+0.28

From deadballs

Opposition	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
Kerry	5	3	60%	-1.40
Down	6	3	50%	-1.68
Tyrone	8	3	38%	-2.15
Derry	8	5	63%	-1.04
Cavan	4	2	50%	-0.94

Individual returns from Donegal V Kerry
from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
M Murphy (Donegal)	4	2	50%	-0.82
C McFadden (Donegal)	3	2	67%	+0.39
C Cooper (Kerry)	3	2	67%	-0.63
B Sheehan (Kerry)	1	1	100%	+0.09
J O’Donoghue (Kerry)	1	0	0%	-0.86
team avgs	7.2	4.8	66.2%	0.00

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
C McFadden (Donegal)	4	3	75%	+1.28
C Cooper (Kerry)	3	2	67%	+0.73
A Maher (Kerry)	2	2	100%	+1.17
M Murphy (Donegal)	2	1	50%	+0.29
Declan O’Sullivan (Kerry)	2	1	50%	+0.17
P McBrearty (Donegal)	2	1	50%	+0.14
L McLoone (Kerry)	2	1	50%	+0.04
K Donaghy (Kerry)	2	1	50%	+0.00
P Galvin (Kerry)	2	1	50%	+0.00

Tags: Donegal, Kerry