Donegal V Kerry

Listed below is Donegal’s returns in the games they have played to date. As can be seen they are (a) very consistent in the % of shots they get off and (b) successful in converting those shots. The focus has been on their running game but it is not all about power & pace – there is an intelligence behind the gameplan which ensures a consistency in the shots they take on.

Opposition Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Return Vs Expected
Vs Kerry 27 21 78% 13 62% +2.09
Vs Down 42 31 74% 20 65% +4.39
Vs Tyrone 29 20 69% 12 60% +1.48
Vs Derry 36 27 75% 15 56% +0.40
Vs Cavan 39 28 72% 17 61% +4.76

Of more interest however may be what their opponents are doing. The table below shows that the vaunted Donegal defensive shield is working to full effect with every team producing below average returns.

Opposition Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Return Vs Expected
Kerry 33 23 70% 11 48% -1.11
Down 34 26 76% 13 50% -0.76
Tyrone 36 25 69% 10 40% -2.97
Derry 30 22 73% 9 41% -3.10
Cavan 41 26 63% 11 42% -0.66

However if we look a little deeper the majority of the negative returns comes from Donegal’s opponents missing deadballs. They are generally allowing average returns from shooting from play (Derry’s performance excepted).

Firstly it must be noted how disciplined Donegal are in only allowing an average of 6.2 deadballs a game where the opposition felt a shot on goal was on. Generally there’s not much that Donegal can do to influence bad deadball striking from their opponents however the consistent negative returns cannot be a coincidence. Are Donegal being clever in where they foul? Could it be that the discipline they show in not fouling excessively extends to being a bit more aggresive in the tackle further out thus putting the opposition free taker in a difficult shooting position? Allow a difficult deadball instead of giving latitude to recycle?

If that is the case then how they handle Cork will be fascinating. Corks’s deadball striking against Kildare was magnificent – Donegal can’t afford to give the frees away that they did previously. Will this enable Cork to get easier shots off?

From play

Opposition Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
Kerry 18 8 44% +0.29
Down 20 10 50% +0.92
Tyrone 17 7 41% -0.82
Derry 14 4 29% -2.06
Cavan 22 9 41% +0.28

From deadballs

Opposition Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
Kerry 5 3 60% -1.40
Down 6 3 50% -1.68
Tyrone 8 3 38% -2.15
Derry 8 5 63% -1.04
Cavan 4 2 50% -0.94

Individual returns from Donegal V Kerry
from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
M Murphy (Donegal) 4 2 50% -0.82
C McFadden (Donegal) 3 2 67% +0.39
C Cooper (Kerry) 3 2 67% -0.63
B Sheehan (Kerry) 1 1 100% +0.09
J O’Donoghue (Kerry) 1 0 0% -0.86
team avgs 7.2 4.8 66.2% 0.00

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
C McFadden (Donegal) 4 3 75% +1.28
C Cooper (Kerry) 3 2 67% +0.73
A Maher (Kerry) 2 2 100% +1.17
M Murphy (Donegal) 2 1 50% +0.29
Declan O’Sullivan (Kerry) 2 1 50% +0.17
P McBrearty (Donegal) 2 1 50% +0.14
L McLoone (Kerry) 2 1 50% +0.04
K Donaghy (Kerry) 2 1 50% +0.00
P Galvin (Kerry) 2 1 50% +0.00
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3 Responses to “Donegal V Kerry”

  1. @dowdsie Says:

    Donegal’s disciplined tackling in defence means they don’t concede too many score able frees. Their tackling really is excellent, something that’s overlooked in the rush to label them cynical.

    That said, I think 3 of Kerry’s first half points came from 2nd phase possession after free kicks from the middle third gave Kerry good possession in the central scoring zone. Donegal seemed to curtail even that channel as the game wore on.

  2. Action81.com » Tactics not Passion: Previewing Cork vs. Donegal Says:

    […] attacks into unfavourable spots. The highest success rate of any of Donegal’s opponents was Down’s 50 percent return, and their 26 efforts was level with Cavan as the most allowed by Donegal this season. Crucially, […]

  3. Donegal V Kerry All Ireland preview | dontfoul Says:

    […] of nothing – in the 2012 QF Kerry’s stat line was 33 possessions & 23 shots (a 70% Shot Rate) with a Success Rate of […]

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