Posts Tagged ‘galway’

Galway v Kerry 2014 Championship

August 6, 2014

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Galway 41 31 76% 12 39% -2.041
Kerry 40 35 88% 21 60% +2.563
Champ (’12 & ’13 avg) 35.8 27.6 77.2% 14.1 51.0%

In the Cork-Mayo game we saw, in a very generalised nutshell, Mayo’s volume of shots outlast Cork’s quality of shots. In this game it was a case of plain old accuracy – Kerry had it in abundance (especially from play) whilst Galway did not.

To be honest I expected the Galway returns to be a lot worse. If we exclude the last three minutes where Galway took desperate pot shots at goal they would have returned a 44.4% Success Rate with a weighting of -0.111. An essentially average shooting display despite their atrocious first half (27% Success Rate and a weighting of -2.174).

Kerry will again be very pleased with their Shot Rate. The 88% achieved here follows on from the 90% in the Munster final.

Where attacks originated

Opposition k/out Own k/out Ball received in Own 3rd Ball received in Mid 3rd Ball received in Opposition 3rd Other (throw-in, rebound etc.)
Galway 7 12 10 7 2 3
Kerry 9 12 16 2 0 1

Both teams had virtually the same volume of attacking possessions however looking forward to the semi final it is interesting to note where those attacks emanated from. The volumes in the main categories (kickouts & turnovers) are virtually the same but where the turnovers occurred is important.

In total Kerry were turned over ten times outside Galway’s 65 with nine of them converted to attacks. Now due to Galway’s poor shooting they did not hammer home this advantage – scoring a measly 0-01 from this prime attacking ball – but we know that Mayo will. They scored 1-05 from the turnovers they generated outside of their own 65 against Cork.

Kerry cannot be as lax with possession against Mayo as they were here.

Shots from Play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Galway 27 9 33% -2.313
Kerry 30 19 63% +4.276
Champ avgs (’12 & ’13) 20.3 9.2 45.4%

Kerry’s shooting boots were most definitely on and none more so than O’Donoghue’s. He was five from five when going for points and his only miss of the day was a goal shot that skimmed the outside of the upright.

O’Donoghue is on fire at the moment. Between this game and the Munster final he is running at a remarkable 82% Success Rate when shooting from play (14 from 17 with a weighting of +5.379). Two of his three misses have been when he went for goal so when having a shot for a point he is an absurd 93% on 14 shots.

But it is not just O’Donoghue – excluding his shots from play Kerry have a 55% Success Rate (24 from 44) which is well above the average. Against Cork it was P Geaney & J Buckley that had their radar in – here it was Barry John Keane (3 from 4).

The one caveat to all this superb shooting is the defences that Kerry have faced. In the two aforementioned games only 38% of their 61 shots from play have been taken under pressure. Will they get that time and space from Mayo? And if they don’t can they convert at the same rate?

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
J Buckley (Kerry) 2 1 50% -0.413
P Geaney (Kerry) 2 1 50% -0.754
D Moran (Kerry) 1 0 0% -0.547
S Walsh (Galway) 4 3 75% +0.272
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ) 7.3 4.9 66.7%

In the Cork game it was highlighted that despite some spectacular individual attempts from Sheehan the returns for the team were average – both in that game and in 12 previous games where Cooper was not the free taker.

Here the returns are particularly bad. That is due to the fact that the two they converted were very central – thus the weighting achieved for converting them is quite small – whilst P Geaney missed one from the top of the D. O’Donoghue missed one from a similar range against Cork.

We are talking about very small sample sizes here (5 in this game, 7 in the Cork game) so with (possibly) only two games to go it might never be an issue but in a very tight game Kerry’s free taking inconsistencies may act as an anchor.

As an aside I did like Walsh’s symmetry taking two frees with his right & two with his left! His only miss was far out on the left from where the returns are generally c40%.

Turnovers

Team “coughing up possession” Volume Shots from Turnovers %
Galway 26 16 62%
Kerry 25 16 64%

 

Misplaced Pass Tackled Shots not going dead Other
Galway 14 5 3 4
Kerry 10 7 6 2

A tale of two halves for Kerry. In the first they were very clinical; of the twelve turnovers they received they converted 75% to shots and scored 1-05. Indeed their early lead was essentially built on turnover ball scoring 1-03 from the first five turnovers they got their hands on.

In the second half this economy evaporated. Kerry manufactured 14 turnovers but only 50% were converted to shots with a return of 0-03.

Galway were every bit as effective at converting the turnovers they received to shots but as we have seen previously this was hugely aided by where they received the turnover.

A further point to note is that 24% (6 from 25) of all Kerry’s turnovers were from shots that didn’t go dead. This is quite a random act with huge variance in volume from game to game. In the 2nd half Kerry went 25 minutes without a pass going astray – they did something similar against Cork when there was a 31 minute stretch where they did not misplace a ball.

When Kerry are switched on and locked in they have a huge capacity to control the tempo of a game by the sheer accuracy of their passing. A prime example of this accuracy was the move that led to O’Donoghue’s missed shot. Kerry received the ball at the top of their own D and proceeded to get the ball to O’Donoghue with four kick passes where the player never hopped or soloed the ball. Counter attacking football in its purest form.

Kickouts

Galway’s kickouts Won % Turned into a possession % Shot %
Galway 18 64% 13 72% 7 39%
Kerry 10 36% 9 90% 9 100%
Kerry’s kickouts Won % Turned into a possession % Shot %
Galway 8 30% 7 88% 6 75%
Kerry 19 70% 12 63% 9 47%

Essentially parity in who “won” the kickouts with both teams moving the possession gained into the opposition’s 45 at a similar rate.

Kerry only went short four times thus winning the more contestable kickouts, past the 45, 15-8. Of those 23 kickouts I had only two being received by a Kerry player under no pressure. It will be interesting to see if Kerry are as willing to take on the Mayo middle third set up as they were the Galway one. When Galway went past the 45 with their kickouts against Mayo they lost the battle 13-9.

Galway went short five times thus they won their own contestable kickouts 12-10 (the cameras missed where one landed so it cannot be determined where the ball landed). Again there was little in the way of “directional” kickouts in that 19 of the 22 kickouts past the 45 were won under some form of pressure.

Shot Charts
In both the Tipperary & Mayo games it was highlighted how unusual Galway were in that a high percentage of their shots came from the left. It was curious therefore to see that they didn’t take one shot from the left when their dander was up in the second half.

Galway’s shooting
Galway shooting (V Kerry)

Kerry’s shooting
Kerry shooting (V Galway)
x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
J O’Donoghue (Kerry) 7 6 86% +2.412
P Geaney (Kerry) 6 3 50% +0.032
P Conroy (Galway) 6 1 17% -1.505
BJ Keane (Kerry) 4 3 75% +1.075
M Lundy (Galway) 4 2 50% +0.457
D Comer (Galway) 4 1 25% -0.673
M Martin (Galway) 4 0 0% -1.643
D Walsh (Kerry) 3 2 67% +0.434
S Walsh (Galway) 2 2 100% +1.215
G Bradshaw (Galway) 2 2 100% +0.866
T Flynn (Galway) 2 1 50% +0.185
Declan O’Sullivan (Kerry) 2 1 50% +0.031
A Maher (Kerry) 2 0 0% -0.858

Galway v Tipperary 2014 Championship

July 30, 2014

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Galway 44 38 86% 21 55% +2.672
Tipperary 39 28 72% 16 57% +2.233
Champ (’12 & ’13 avg) 35.8 27.6 77.2% 14.1 51.0%

Excellent shooting from both teams however the overall numbers are tempered by (a) the volume of goal shots converted and (b) the volume of shots taken under pressure.

There were 12 goal shots in the game (7 for Galway, 5 for Tipperary including the penalty) with 9 resulting in a score. Goal shots generally end in a score c40% of the time. Converting a goal shot is therefore quite a low percentage shot (versus going for a point in the same position) so the weighting is quite high when they are converted. Converting 9 obviously has a huge effect.

Of the 52 shots from play I charted only 35% (18 from 52) being taken under pressure – take out the goal shots and that drops to a paltry 27% (11 out of 41). The lack of pressure is not the sole reason for the excellent returns but it surely helps!

Where attacks originated

Opposition k/out Own k/out Ball received in Own 3rd Ball received in Mid 3rd Ball received in Opposition 3rd Other (throw-in, rebound etc.)
Galway 9 12 15 2 1 5
Tipperary 7 14 10 4 2 2

Very similar returns for both teams. Both teams managed 21 attacking possessions from kickouts whilst Galway edged two more possessions from turnovers (18 to 16).

The difference in shots came mainly, as we will see below, from turnovers. Galway had 2 extra attacking possessions from turnovers but managed 8 extra shots from the turnovers gained.

Shots from Play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Galway 30 18 60% +4.944
Tipperary 22 11 50% +1.401
Champ avgs (’12 & ’13) 20.3 9.2 45.4%

The Galway returns are excellent. They managed 7 shots at goal scoring 4-01 and converted 57% (13 from 23) of their point attempts. As noted earlier the concern going forward is can they replicate this? Only four of those 23 point shots were taken under pressure

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
S Walsh (Galway) 5 3 60% -0.574
P Conroy (Galway) 2 0 0% -0.857
M Martin (Galway) 1 0 0% -0.840
C Sweeney (Tipperary) 5 5 100% +1.672
B Grogan (Tipperary) 1 0 0% -0.840
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ) 7.3 4.9 66.7%

Very good from Sweeney – not much more could have been asked.

The first shot in the game Martin skewered a simple free from in front of goal and that seemed to set the tone for Galway’s performance. Combined they were 38% (3 from 8) with a weighting of -2.271. Shane Walsh’s sublime piece of skill to kill Conroy’s 45 with his instep hid the fact that the 45 itself was atrocious – dropping short and wide at the corner of the small square.

Turnovers

Team “coughing up” possession Shots from Turnovers %
Galway 22 11 50%
Tipperary 22 19 86%

 

Misplaced Pass Tackled Shots not going dead Other
Galway 11 6 4 1
Tipperary 12 5 0 5

The turnover numbers are quite low – 44 in this game versus 58 in the Cork-Sligo game – however the striking number is that 86% from Galway. Of the 22 turnovers they created/received they managed to convert 19 to shots. Thier foot passing into the space for the forwards to latch on to was excellent.

All four of their goals came from Tipperary turnovers

Kickouts

Galway’s kickouts Won % Turned into a possession % Shot %
Galway 20 74% 12 60% 8 40%
Tipperary 7 26% 7 100% 6 86%
Tipperary’s kickouts Won % Turned into a possession % Shot %
Galway 12 43% 9 75% 7 58%
Tipperary 16 57% 14 88% 10 63%

Galway gained possession of the kickout a full nine times more than Tipperary yet managed one less shot.

On their own kickouts Galway went short seven times but only managed a shot twice. Of the remaining twenty kickouts they won a respectable 13. The problem is that when Tipperary won these kickouts they scored 2-02. The fear, when meeting Kerry who were very good on Cork’s kickouts for the mid 50 minutes, is that the grouping of Buckley, Sheehan, Walsh & O’Mahoney will win more than 35% of Galway’s contestable kickouts. If they do will they convert at the same rate that Tipperary did?

On the flip side Conroy, Flynn & O’Curraoin were very good on Tipperary’s kickouts winning 55% (12 from 22) of their kickouts that travelled past the 45.

Shot Charts
Galway’s shot chart is slightly strange in that they had more shots from the left than the right – Galway’s propensity to shoot from the left was evident in the Mayo game as well.

Galway’s shooting
Galway shooting (V Tipperary)

Tipperary’s shooting
Tipperary shooting (V Galway)
x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
D Cummins (Galway) 6 2 33% -0.481
M Martin (Galway) 5 3 60% +0.998
C O’Riordan (Tipperary) 5 3 60% +0.893
P Conroy (Galway) 4 3 75% +1.008
P Acheson (Tipperary) 4 2 50% +0.026
S Armstrong (Galway) 3 2 67% +0.516
M Lundy (Galway) 3 2 67% +0.477
S Walsh (Galway) 2 2 100% +1.224
P Varley (Galway) 2 1 50% +0.234
M Quinlivan (Tipperary) 2 1 50% +0.224
G Hannigan (Tipperary) 2 1 50% -0.068
C Sweeney (Tipperary) 2 0 0% -0.785
P Austin (Tipperary) 2 0 0% -0.997

Mayo V Galway 2014 Championship

July 18, 2014

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Mayo 41 29 71% 17 59% +3.229
Galway 39 30 77% 16 53% +0.666
Champ (’12 & ’13 avg) 35.8 27.6 77.2% 14.1 51.0%

In a game that was never really close they are a fairly balanced set of figures.

From a Mayo perspective the one area of concern here may be the Shot Rate. 71% is poor but follows on the back of 64% against Roscommon. In their six games in the 2013 Championship the returns were 69%, 81%, 67%, 74%, 86% & 86% so there is a general level of fluctuation in this one metric but with a possible three games to go Mayo will want to better their recent production.

What Mayo will be please with is how they stamped out the Galway comeback at the start of the second half before it could gain momentum. In that first 15 minutes Galway had a lot of momentum gaining 0-05 from nine shots. Mayo were much more clinical however gaining 1-03 from five shots thus ensuring they stayed at arm’s length.

I have started to track where the attacks originate from. The results are below. There is nothing hugely different between the teams here, and no results to compare against, however it may throw up some interesting points in games to come. One of note is how often Galway received the ball from Mayo in the middle 3rd.

Opposition k/out Own k/out Ball received in Own 3rd Ball received in Mid 3rd Ball received in Opposition 3rd Other (throw-in, rebound etc.)
Mayo 9 12 12 2 3 3
Galway 8 8 14 5 2 2

Shots from Play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Mayo 22 12 55% +2.721
Galway 23 11 48% +0.561
Champ avgs (’12 & ’13) 20.3 9.2 45.4%

Again the returns are pretty similar but the main difference is in the clinical nature with which Mayo dispatched their goal shots. They had 5 in total netting 3-01. Galway had four and only managed 0-01.

Mayo’s point shooting as such was 47% (8 from 17) with a weighting of +0.757. Galway had a return of 50% (10 from 20) with a weighting of +0.783.

Within that Galway return there was a whole spectrum of individual performances. Cummins, Hoare & Walsh combined for a 31% Success Rate (4 from 13) with a weighting of -3.089 whilst Conroy & Armstrong scored on all six of their shots.

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
C O’Connor (Mayo) 7 5 71% +0.508
S Walsh (Galway) 7 5 71% +0.105
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ) 7.3 4.9 66.7%

Walsh was having a good day, hitting 5 frees from 5 attempts for a weighting of +1.013, until the missed penalty. Impossible as it is to prove it is hard to argue with the commentary on the game that the penalty miss must have weighed on his mind when taking the subsequent 45. Would Galway have been better employed getting someone else to take that shot?

As for the penalty it was a great save from Hennelly, diving low to his left, rather than a miss from Walsh. Still I have the conversion rate for penalties running at 83% from 24 in the database (where a player went for goal). Of the 4 “missed” two were saved – so only 8% of penalties are saved.

O’Connor’s day was above average without being spectacular – he missed two relatively central kicks (one was a 45) towards the end when the result wasn’t in doubt.

Kickouts

Mayo’s kickouts Won % Turned into a possession % Shot %
Mayo 18 67% 12 67% 8 44%
Galway 9 33% 8 89% 7 78%
Galway’s kickouts Won % Turned into a possession % Shot %
Mayo 12 48% 9 75% 7 58%
Galway 13 52% 8 62% 6 46%

Much was made, in the TV commentary, of how poorly Galway did on their own kickouts with the onscreen statistics showing them only winning 2 out of their own kickouts in the first half. Whilst “winning” kickouts is all based on definition I am unsure how such a low number was arrived at. In those 15 kickouts in the first half I had Galway winning 6 of them. It is still a poor return mind but nowhere near as poor as communicated.

In the second half Galway recovered some of the lost ground and eventually broke even on their own kickouts.

Mayo were in control of their own kickouts especially the “directional” variety. 14 of their 27 kickouts dropped short of the 65m line with Mayo winning 79% (11 out of 14). When they went long they won 54% (7 from 13).

Turnovers

Team “coughing up” possession Shots from Turnovers %
Mayo 29 12 41%
Galway 24 12 50%

 

Misplaced Pass Tackled Shots not going dead Other
Mayo 15 8 1 5
Galway 19 2 1 2

The first half was a bit of a scrappy affair with 24 (11 from Mayo, 13 from Galway) passes going astray between the two teams – 7 of these were from frees. So the team with the ball in their hand kicked it to the opposition 7 times! 6 more were hand passes that went astray.

As a contrast there were only 10 passes (4 from Mayo) that went astray in the second half.

Shot Charts

Galway’s nest of shots on the left between the 13m & 20m line is unique – very rarely will you see so many shots from there and never will you see them all converted.

Their downfall was the shooting from the “easier” sectors – Sectors 5 & 8 in front of the goal. Galway only converted 36% (4 from 11) of all shots taken centrally.

Mayo’s shooting
Mayo shooting (V Galway)

Galway’s shooting
Galway shooting (V Mayo)
x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
S Walsh (Galway) 5 2 40% -0.530
D Cummins (Galway) 5 1 20% -1.342
P Conroy (Galway) 4 4 100% +2.318
K McLoughlin (Mayo) 4 3 75% +1.449
C O’Connor (Mayo) 4 3 75% +1.448
L Keegan (Mayo) 3 2 67% +0.760
J Doherty (Mayo) 3 2 67% +0.525
A Dillon (Mayo) 3 1 33% -0.268
E Hoare (Galway) 3 0 0% -1.217
S Armstrong (Mayo) 2 2 100% +1.167
G Bradshaw (Galway) 2 1 50% +0.233
M Lundy (Galway) 2 1 50% -0.068

Galway V Mayo 2013

May 21, 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Galway 31 26 84% 11 42% -1.393
Mayo 36 31 86% 20 65% +3.8949
2012 avg 35.28 27.02 76.6% 13.96 51.67%

Mayo’s numbers are very good but would you expect anything less from a team that scores 4-16, plays half the game against 14 and a good chunk of the second half against 13?

The fact that they had a stroll in the second half should not colour our view on just how good they were in the first half. They scored 12 times from 15 shots (10 /13 from play) with a Weighting of +4.56 in that first half and generally got their most consistent shooters on the end of moves. Dillon converted his two shots with Varley converting 3 from 5.

The flip side of that good first half Mayo performance is the Galway defending. Of the 13 shots that Mayo took from play I counted pressure on only 5 (38%). In the first half of a Championship game you have been targeting for months that is poor.

As a contrast Galway took 8 shots from play in that first half with Mayo pressurising 75% of them and actually blocking 3.

Now the second half can be completely written off as a contest however even with Mayo asleep at the wheel for the first 10 minutes (they only had one possession in that period to Galway’s 8) Galway couldn’t get a score from play. Again Mayo pressurised any shots they did take (pressure on 5 of the 7) and blocked a further two shots in the second half.

Shots from play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Galway 15 3 20% -3.498
Mayo 27 16 59% +3.3749
2012 avg 20.14 9.36 46.47%

Mayo’s second half shooting from play was actually below their first despite the numerical advantage. They hit 77% (10 from 13) in the first half but only 43% (6 from 14) in the second however we can forgive them this as the intensity had gone at that stage.

There’s not that much that can be said about Galway’s shooting that a return of 3 points and a Success Rate of 20% doesn’t already convey. One thing to note from Galway’s shot chart below, in relation to Mayo’s, is how wide the shots are; and when they did get in front of goals Mayo blocked 3 of the 4 shots from Sector 8.

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
C O’Connor (Mayo) 4 4 100% +0.52
M Meehan (Galway) 8 5 63% +0.7793
S Armastrong (Galway) 2 2 100% +0.884
S Walsh (Galway) 1 1 100% +0.442
2012 team avgs 6.88 4.6 66.9%

One area of the game that Galway did have some positives in was here. All three players had above average days whilst they managed to keep O’Connor to only 4 attempts from frees.

Shot charts
Mayo’s shot chart is quite interesting in that they have two distinct clusters. One is in Sector 5 in which they scored 7 from 7 (including 3 O’Connor frees) whilst the other is Sector 7 just inside the 21m line where they only hit 2 from 7 (both Dillon’s points incidentally – he is an exceptionally accurate shooter).

Galway’s shooting

Galway shooting
x = missed, disc = score

Mayo’s shooting

Mayo shooting
x = missed, disc = score

Kickouts

Kickouts

There are a couple of things that strike me immediately from the kickout battle.
–> Firstly Mayo had a +7 shot differential on kickouts won. That is a very nice position to have where there will be c54 shots in an average game.
–> Mayo won 88% (15 from 17) of their own kickouts. Yes they hit 8 short but they still won possession on 8 of the other 9 (89%) kickouts
–> Ultimately though they were devastatingly efficient on Galway’s kickouts. Although they gained possession on 15 of their own kickouts they only converted that to 5 shots. On Galway’s kickouts they converted 11 wins into 8 shots.

Player’s contributions can often go unnoticed if they are not getting their name on the scoreboard. One such player on Sunday was Kevin McLoughlin. At the start of the game, when everything was to play for, he got his hands on breaking ball from 4 of Galway’s first 6 kickouts. He emerged with the ball cleanly 3 times and won a free the fourth – those 4 possessions turned into 3 points, settled Mayo down and laid the platform for an excellent start.

Players with >= 2 shots from play
Not much to be added here except that someone in the Mayo camp needs to have a word with Dillon. He needs to shoot more – in Mayo’s last 4 Championship games he has hit 9 from 11 (82%) from play and hit the post with one of his misses

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
E Varley (Mayo) 6 4 67% +1.5671
D Cummins (Galway) 5 2 40% -0.3896
C O’Connor (Mayo) 4 2 50% -0.1788
M Meehan (Galway) 3 0 0% -1.379
D Vaughan (Mayo) 2 2 100% +1.0655
A Dillon (Mayo) 2 2 100% +1.0313
P Conroy (Galway) 2 1 50% +0.3887
C Carolan (Mayo) 2 1 50% +0.2395
A Freeman (Mayo) 2 1 50% +0.1493
D Coen (Mayo) 2 1 50% +0.1375
L Keegan (Mayo) 2 1 50% -0.0247
S Walsh (Galway) 2 0 0% -0.7046
S O’Shea (Mayo) 2 0 0% -1.196

Roscommon Vs Galway

May 24, 2012
Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate
Galway 40 32 80% 18 56%
Roscommon 32 21 66% 10 48%
avg 41.8 28.3 67.7% 14.1 49.8%

To the naked eye Joe Bergin appeared to lord over midfield once Finneran went off and the above table would support this. Roscommon’s shot & success rate was almost bang on average but the number of possessions they had was relatively small – they were starved of ball inside Galway’s 45m line.

Galway on the other hand used what ball they had excellently. In the 36 games charted in 2010 (that are currently being used to provide the averages in the tables) no team had greater than a 77% shot rate – we might not see another team hit 80% again this year.

When you see an outlier like this something exceptional has happened. A lot of people will recognise the outlier as Galway’s direct style of play and quality of foot passing into the forward line. Yes this will be part of the equation however how many times, from here on in, will they meet a defence as compliant as Roscommon’s? Galway have good forwards however if that shot rate drops due to (a) teams screening in front of Conroy or (b) stopping the likes of Bradshaw & O’Donnell attacking will the 56% accuracy hold up?

From play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
Galway 28 15 54% +2.59
Roscommon 14 6 43% -0.36
avg 21.1 9.3 44.0% 0.00

From deadballs

  Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
G Sice (Gal) 2 2 100% +0.55
M Meehan (Gal) 1 1 100% +0.14
M Hehir (Gal) 1 0 0% -0.55
D Shine (Ros) 5 2 40% -1.50
S Kilbride (Ros) 2 2 100% +0.55
team avgs 7.3 4.8 66.5% 0.00

Again Galway were good from play but maybe not as good as thought – compare their return (+2.22) with that of Donegal’s on the same day (+3.32). Both had low to mid 50s success rate – it was just that Donegal converted more of the difficult scores. Galway can only beat what is put in front of them so the arguement can be made that they didn’t need to take on the difficult shots – if that is the case then a 52% success rate was pretty poor. Galway were good on Sunday; just not excellent.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

  Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
P Conroy (Gal) 9 5 56% +1.06
D Shine (Ros) 4 0 0% -1.80
D Cummins (Gal) 3 0 0% -1.30
G Bradshaw (Gal) 2 2 100% +1.25
J Bergin (Gal) 2 2 100% +1.17
D O’Gara (Ros) 2 2 100% +1.04
G Sice (Gal) 2 2 100% +0.82
S Armstrong (Gal) 2 1 100% +0.11
M Hehir (Gal) 2 1 50% 0.07
G O’Donell (Gal) 2 0 0% -0.83

Conroy showed very well and produced the goods – both success rate and expected returns were above average. He was ably supported by a cast of Bradshaw, Bergin & Sice. Cummins only came on in the 63rd minute – we’ll put that showing down to over exuberance!

As for Roscommon …. we need to talk about Donie

I was on the verge of writing a seperate post altogether on Donie Shine as I’m not sure I’ll do it justice here – I don’t mean to be over critical but it is what it is. Shine had 9 shots in total on the day scoring with two of them. It was a poor outing with a combined (deadball & play) expected return of -3.30. We have however seen this before. Below are Shine’s results for the 4 games charted (3 in 2010 & this game). On 3 of the 4 occassions he returned a negative expected return and in all games his deadball striking has been below average.

Game   Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
Cork V Roscommon from play 4 2 50% +0.06
  deadballs 5 3 60% -0.33
Leitrim Vs Roscommon from play 4 1 25% -0.64
  deadballs 11 7 64% -1.10
Sligo Vs Roscommon from play 3 3 100% +1.63
  deadballs 13 7 54% -0.36
Roscommon Vs Galway from play 4 0 0% -1.80
  deadballs 5 2 40% -1.50

The deadball returns go against the perception of Shine as an excellent free taker. I would argue that he is a taker of excellent frees rather than an excellent free taker – we remember the booming kicks he hits to win games but forget the two 45s he misses in the same game.

The arguement can (will) be made that Shine is the only quality forward Roscommon has. He knows this and thus takes the responsibility on his shoulders to shoot on sight or take the difficult shots.This might also explain his poor return from play. It is an arguement that has some validity however this is where the expected return comes into play – he is below average in converting those shots he does take on. Whether they are easy or hard he’s simply not converting enough.

In doing this I knew I would come across players/teams that did not meet the perceived wisdom. I had hoped to unearth this team/player in a positive manner – one who outperforms their general image. Unfortunately the opposite has occurred