Roscommon V Mayo 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Roscommon	32	26	81%	9	35%	-3.912
Mayo	43	37	86%	21	57%	-0.369
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

Considering the fact that they scored 0-21, and have a success rate above average, it may come as a surprise to see a weighting below zero. This is due to the type of shot missed. Mayo had 11 attempts from play at a score from Sector8 yet only converted five. Of those six misses five came in the second half and was an indication of the malaise that set into the game post half time.

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
1st Half	11	8	73%	+2.617
2nd Half	16	6	38%	-2.175

The above table shows the difference in Mayo’s shooting from play from one half to the next. Mayo were razor sharp in the first half when the game was “live”. Once the contest had abated their accuracy wained.

Shots from play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Roscommon	20	5	21%	-3.137
Mayo	27	14	52%	+0.442
2012 avg	20.14	9.36	46.47%

Overall Mayo’s shooting from play was average but Roscommon’s was abysmal. Yes it could be said they took on shots in the second half, through sheer frustration, that they wouldn’t normally attempt had the game been close but in the first half they only hit 33% (3/9).

One notable feature of the game was the difference in the pressure being applied to the forward as they were in the act of shooting. Whilst the game should have had some intensity in the first half Mayo got 63% (7 of 11 shots) of their shots off without any pressure. On the flipside they applied pressure to 100% (9 from 9) of Roscommon’s first half shots.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
S Kilbride (Roscommon)	4	3	75%	+0.015
D Smith (Roscommon)	2	1	50%	-0.790
K McLoughlin (Mayo)	5	5	100%	+0.476
A Freeman (Mayo)	3	2	67%	-0.248
D Clarke (Mayo)	1	0	0%	-0.481
K O’Malley (Mayo)	1	0	0%	-0.558
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

In Cillian O’Connor’s absence Kevin McLoughlin carried over his league form. In the 5 Mayo league games charted he hit 90% (5/6) – again in this game he hit 100%. None of the frees he is asked to take would be deemed difficult – the longer ones were left to the two goalies and Freeman – but what else can you ask of what is essentially your back up free taker other than consistency?

I am unsure as to why Mayo asked the two goalies to take the long frees. McLoughlin showed he has good leg strength with the one from c38m.

Shot Charts
I’m not sure if it was just randomness or the fact that Mayo’s two best winners of primary possession up front, Freeman & Moran, were steering their runs out to the right, but there was a marked difference in where Mayo shot from when comparing the two halves. Almost everything from play came from the right in the second half.

This can be seen in the Mayo shot chart with 2nd half shots from play in black and 1st half in white.

Mayo’s shooting

Roscommon’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

Roscommon did quite well in the kickout department. I am sure pre game they would have been glad to hold Mayo to 55% given the presence of the O’Shea brothers.

From this vantage we do not know what Mayo’s view of a good kickout return is. What is their risk appetite? When they went short they only got a shot off 33% (3/9) of the time but they controlled the ball. They had a shot differential of +3

When they went past the 45m line with their kickouts they converted 83% (5/6) of those they won into shots however they also gave Roscommon 4 shots from the 7 they won. A shot differential of +1.

So do you go long and get more shots but risk the opposition also getting shots? Or go short and convert less of that possession to shots but don’t give the opposition much in the way of shooting opportunities?

Players with >= 2 shots from play
In the last Mayo game (Vs Galway) the one player I called out was Alan Dillon. At that stage he had hit 11 from 12 shots in his last 4 Mayo games charted. And of course he goes and throws in a stinker. He wasn’t alone; I’m sure Cathal Shine would like some of those wayward attempts back.

Colm Boyle had a nice game but overall the shooting was widely dispersed with average enough displays

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
A Dillon (Mayo)	5	1	20%	-1.558
C Shine (Roscommon)	4	0	0%	-1.601
C Boyle (Mayo)	3	2	67%	+0.863
C Devaney (Roscommon)	3	1	33%	-0.353
R Feeney (Mayo)	3	1	33%	-0.649
D Coen (Mayo)	2	2	100%	+1.23
E Smith (Roscommon)	2	2	100%	+1.185
A Moran (Mayo)	2	1	50%	+0.14
K Higgins (Roscommon)	2	1	50%	+0.13
K Mannion (Roscommon)	2	1	50%	+0.074
L Keegan (Mayo)	2	1	50%	+0.056
A Freeman (Mayo)	2	1	50%	-0.196
A O’Shea (Mayo)	2	1	50%	-0.196
K McLoughlin (Mayo)	2	1	50%	-0.342
S Kilbride (Roscommon)	2	0	0%	-0.645

Derry V Down 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Derry	42	32	76%	17	53%	+2.3639
Down	46	33	72%	19	58%	+3.7934
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

A very open game with high volume returns for the main attacking metrics. Derry’s Shot & Success Rates were in line with the average; to return as high a weighting as they did shows that the shots they took were more difficult than would normally be expected.

Down’s shooting overall was excellent with a high Success Rate and a high weighting. If they were going to be harsh in their analysis, after an excellent victory, then they may be concerned with their Shot Rate, especially with Donegal on the horizon. For all the possession they had they really should have managed to get another 2 or 3 shots off.

Down will not have as much possession the next day and a similar low Shot Rate will inevitably feed into a low score.

Shots from play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Derry	24	15	63%	+5.142
Down	31	17	55%	+2.899
2012 avg	20.14	9.36	46.47%

Derry’s shooting from play was scintillating. That performance is as good as we are likely to see in the Championship. Between them Eoin Bradley & James Kielt scored 0-08 from 11 shots (73% return with a combined weighting of +3.418) however Bradley’s hidden value was immense. He was involved in all 3 of Derry’s shots for goal; taking one and setting up the other two – including Lynch’s goal; he was fouled for two of the four frees Derry took a shot from and also “won” two of Derry’s three 45s. He was immense.

The issue with Derry however was the Jeckyll & Hyde nature of their shooting strategy (see shot chart below). In the first half they took 14 shots from play with 9 (64%) coming from Sectors 5 & 8, the two most productive sectors. In the second half only one of their 10 shots from play came from these sectors. Their second half returns were still about above but they moved away (or were moved depending on your viewpoint) from what got them the lead at half time.

Team	Half	Shots	Scores	Weighting
Derry	1st	14	10	+3.764
	2nd	10	5	+1.378
Down	1st	15	8	+1.448
	2nd	16	9	+1.452

Although overshadowed by Derry’s returns Down’s shooting was also very good. On top of being more consistent, with both halves being quite similar, they were also a lot more clinical. Down had 3 shots at goal and only the base of the post stopped them converting all 3.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
O’Hare (Down)	2	2	100%	+0.894
Heron (Derry)	3	1	33%	-0.28
Bell (Derry)	2	0	0%	-1.667
J Kielt (Derry)	1	1	100%	+0.452
Lynch (Derry)	1	0	0%	-0.558
E Bradley (Derry)	1	0	0%	-0.726
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

Both teams did very well to only concede five frees between them within scoreable range.

Derry, and Bell in particular, are slightly hard done by here. Due to the fact that the volumes of shots from sidelines is so low we cannot give them an accurate weighting (yet!). As such they are considered free kicks – and Bell gets crucified for missing two free kicks in Sector 9 rather than one of them being a sideline.

Shot Charts
You can see how Derry’s shooting changed after half time. Their first half shots from play are in white whilst the second half are in black. They obviously have great strikers of the ball, as shown by their returns in this game, but too many times it was the wrong player (P Bradley, Quinn, O’kane) taking the shots from the wrong sections.

Derry’s shooting

Down’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play
Kickouts

The normal kickout data is included above but perhaps of more interest was what was happening on Down’s kickouts. Derry ‘let’ Down have the short kickout which, as discussed in the Dublin-Westmeath game, is a strategy that has merit. However on the first 7 kickouts that Down took (all short) they managed to get a shot from each and bagged 0-04 points.

	Down Won	Shots	Scores
First 7 short	7/7	7	4
Remainder short	6/7	4	3
Mid/Long	7/9	2	1

The strategy itself is fine but what were Derry doing? If they were dropping back from Down’s kickouts where was the pressure when Down crossed the half way line. To implement this strategy is fine but you must follow up by blocking the route to shooting in your 45.

When Down did go long Derry were much more effective at stopping the shot coming. After witnessing the outcome of those first 7 short kickouts the Derry management really should have sold out and stopped anymore short kickouts.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
McKernan (Down)	7	4	57%	+0.823
E Bradley (Derry)	6	4	67%	+1.294
J Kielt (Derry)	5	4	80%	+2.124
Poland (Down)	5	3	60%	+0.837
Madine (Down)	5	3	60%	+0.616
O’Hare (Down)	4	3	75%	+1.038
Lynch (Derry)	2	2	100%	+1.286
Lynn (Derry)	2	2	100%	+1.168
McCallion (Derry)	2	0	0%	-0.645
Heron (Derry)	2	1	50%	+0.239
O’Kane (Derry)	2	0	0%	-0.842
Quinn (Down)	2	0	0%	-0.842
Laverty (Down)	2	0	0%	-0.866

Dublin V Westmeath 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	49	42	86%	23	55%	+2.3558
Westmeath	32	23	72%	9	39%	-1.692
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

Following Kerry-Tipperary this is another game where one team was utterly dominant.

Prior to Westmeath taking their first shot from play in the 23rd minute Dublin had taken 16 shots. 15 of those shots were from play with only 5 coming under any form of pressure. This lack of pressure was not due to Westmeath tactical naivety; they effectively had 12 behind the ball. It was more due to the precision of Dublin’s attacking play. Some of the kick passing from Dublin was sublime, hitting forwards in stride and in space.

Shots from play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	34	17	50%	+2.6022
Westmeath	15	4	27%	-1.454
2012 avg	20.14	9.36	46.47%

The average number of shots from play for a team in 2012 was 20 … Dublin had 19 by half time.

The main protagonists’ returns are listed below. Many a time on the blog I have indicated that the support cast behind Brogan wasn’t backing him up on a consistent basis. This game saw a mixed bag on this front with Andrews & Flynn having excellent games, Kilkenny & Mannion having relatively quiet shooting days whilst Connolly & Brogan’s returns were below average. Outside of Brogan the returns for the other 5 starters up front were a Success Rate of 52% (12/23) and a weighting of +1.843. Dublin will take that knowing Brogan can hit form at any stage.

Connolly’s returns are somewhat skewed by the fact he had 3 attempts for a goal but didn’t convert any. For Dublin this may be the only real negative from the game; they had 5 shots for a goal but only converted 1. Again I’m sure the narrative internally is positive in the sense that they are making the chances but in tighter games these chances will have to be taken.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
B Brogan (Dublin)	5	5	100%	+0.576
D Rock (Dublin)	1	1	100%	+0.274
P Mannion (Dublin)	1	0	0%	-0.548
S Cluxton (Dublin)	1	0	0%	-0.548
J Heslin (Westmeath)	7	5	71%	+0.242
P Sharry(Westmeath)	1	0	0%	-0.481
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

Such a low weighting for a 100% return shows that all of Brogan’s frees were in the “easy” category. Heslin actually had quite a good day from deadballs after missing the first two but Westmeath desperately needed those initial scores.

Shot Charts
Interesting that anything Dublin hit, from either long or wide, was missed. They have the players to hit those shots in Connolly, Flynn & Brogan but it didn’t happen here.

Dublin’s shooting

Westmeath’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

The usual tables re kickouts are attached. What may be of more interest, given the general discussion on the game and how Kildare approached this area the last time they played, is Dublin’s kickouts.

	Dublin Won	Shots	Scores
Short	8	4	1
Mid/Long	10	4	3

Westmeath dropped off allowing Dublin to have possession on short kick outs. Did it work? To a point. Dublin only got 0-01 from the possession that emanated from short kickouts as against 1-02 from kickouts that passed the 45m line. Dublin did get 4 shots from each though.

There does appear to be merit, on very limited data, in trying this (letting Dublin have the short kickout) but will Kildare follow through after being so burned in the league?

Players with >= 2 shots from play
We’ve already touched on Connolly’s poor numbers. Glennon’s returns were also poor however every shot he took came under severe pressure and being their only real threat he probably felt he needed to take on the more marginal shots.

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
D Connolly (Dublin)	8	3	38%	-0.233
D Glennon (Westmeath)	7	2	29%	-0.687
B Brogan (Dublin)	6	2	33%	-0.373
P Andrews (Dublin)	5	4	80%	+1.653
P Flynn (Dublin)	5	3	60%	+0.908
C Kilkenny (Dublin)	3	1	33%	-0.551
K Martin (Westmeath)	2	1	50%	+0.32
P Mannion (Dublin)	2	1	50%	+0.066
C McCormack (Westmeath)	2	0	0%	-0.645
J Heslin (Westmeath)	2	0	0%	-0.761

Kerry V Tipperary 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Kerry	47	37	79%	21	57%	+3.4764
Tipperary	27	19	70%	8	42%	-1.843
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

Sometimes there is very little that can be added to the bare numbers. Kerry had 74% more possessions & 95% more shots. Their dominance was complete.

Shots from play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Kerry	28	17	61%	+4.0449
Tipperary	10	2	20%	-1.755
2012 avg	20.14	9.36	46.47%

Tipperary’s shooting from play was abject both in terms of quantity & quality. They didn’t shoot from inside the 20m line until the 28th minute whilst it was the 2nd half before they scored from play.

Kerry’s shooting was very good. To maintain such a high weighting, and Success Rate, whilst reigning in shots is testament of this. One note of caution however would be the quality of the opposition they faced. This is factored into the weighting, to an extent, as they were well ahead for the majority of the game (see here for explanation) however they only faced pressure on 1 of the first 7 shots they took in the 1st half – scoring 6 points. Tipperary started slow and maintained that gear throughout the game.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
J Buckley (Kerry)	4	2	50%	-0.155
B Sheehan (Kerry)	3	1	33%	-0.318
C Cooper (Kerry)	2	1	50%	-0.096
B Grogan (Tipperary)	4	3	75%	+0.059
C Sweeney (Tipperary)	3	3	100%	+0.959
A Maloney (Tipperary)	1	0	0%	-0.548
I Fahey (Tipperary)	1	0	0%	-0.558
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

Anyone who has read the blog for any length will know that one of Kerry’s major weak points is their deadball accuracy. In a game with no real pressure they had a return of 44% and a weighting of -0.569. Below are the combined ’12 Championship & ’13 League returns for games charted. Compare this to Donegal or Mayo’s returns.

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
’12 Championship	29	17	59%	-4.76
’13 League	21	11	52%	-3.71

Kerry’s shooting

Tipperary’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

Kerry were utterly dominant with a +16 differential in kickouts won a +12 in shots from those kickouts.

Kerry generally do not hit their kickouts long. In the 4 league games charted only 18% went beyond the 65m line – that continued in this game with only 13% (2/15) going long.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
J O’Donoghue (Kerry)	6	4	67%	+0.888
C Cooper (Kerry)	5	4	80%	+2.054
D Walsh (Kerry)	4	1	25%	-0.533
P Galvin (Kerry)	3	2	67%	+0.759
T O’Sé (Kerry)	3	1	33%	-0.342
P Austin (Tipperary)	2	1	50%	+0.248
Darran O’Sullivan (Kerry)	2	1	50%	-0.106
Declan O’Sullivan (Kerry)	2	1	50%	-0.106
P Acheson (Tipperary)	2	0	0%	-0.714

Donegal V Tyrone 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Donegal	29	18	62%	12	67%	+2.3886
Tyrone	37	29	78%	10	34%	-3.206
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

Tyrone managed to get more possessions, and shots, than Donegal but their execution was very poor. That poor Success Rate of 34% will be laid squarely at Niall Morgan’s door but even without him Tyrone would still have recorded a very poor Success Rate of 39%.

Part of this is due to where Tyrone took their shots from (see shot chart below). Only 2 of Tyrone’s entire 29 shots came from Sector 5. This is yet again further evidence of Donegal’s immense discipline in defence. They did not give away one free from Sector 5 in the entire 70 minutes and forced Tyrone outside to shoot.

Donegal’s shooting, when they did shoot, was immense. Whilst we have praised their discipline in defence, their discipline up front is also noteworthy. Rarely is a bad shot taken. They recycle possession until the right man is in the right position to make the shot worthwhile. If you are going to play this waiting game then you need a very high Success Rate, alloyed to a winner’s instinct as to when to go for goal. Donegal had both in spades with a 67% Success Rate and scoring two goals from three chances.

As an aside this game was eerily similar to 2012 (see here). Donegal with much lower possession numbers but higher Success Rates. Tyrone with poor shooting & a crippling deadball performance. Who says lightning doesn’t strike twice?

Shots from play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Donegal	12	8	67%	+1.7485
Tyrone	19	8	42%	+0.2792
2012 avg	20.14	9.36	46.47%

Both teams managed 8 scores from play but the difference in the two teams Success Rates can be explained in the detail of who took their shots.

Donegal’s front 3 of McBrearty, Murphy & McFadden took 75% (9 of 12) of their shots scoring 1-04. The other three shots were all scores from different players – highlighting once again the deadly accuracy of Donegal’s supporting cast. Tyrone’s main trio of O’Neill, S Cavanagh & Mattie Donnelly took 39% (7 from 18) of their shots scoring 0-04. But the supporting cast only managed a Success Rate of 36% (4 from 11) … they had they bulk of the shots but couldn’t find the target anywhere near as successfully as Donegal’s supporting cast could.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
C McFadden (Donegal)	3	2	67%	+0.358
M Murphy (Donegal)	3	2	67%	+0.284
N Morgan (Tyrone)	6	1	17%	-1.699
S Cavanagh (Tyrone)	3	1	33%	-1.06
S O’Neill (Tyrone)	1	0	0%	-.726
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

Much has been made of Morgan’s bad day at the office. It was indeed bad but it wasn’t terrible. We have seen players return a weighting of -3 in the past and this was nowhere near that. Why not? Because the weighting compares a performance against what an average player would return.

When people are comparing Morgan’s outing they are doing so against his excellent performance against Dublin. Realistically though that was unsustainable. In the 3 games charted outside of the League Final Morgan had a success rate of 44% (4 from 9). On average he could have been expected to score 2 maybe 3 of those 6 attempts.

Of course what cannot be measured is the effect each miss had on Tyrone as a whole. This was their new weapon, their game changer from last year. Except it misfired.

Donegal’s shooting

Tyrone’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

A note of caution on these returns. Normally RTE are excellent in timing their replays so that very little of the live play is missed. For some reason they were late to a number of kickouts in this game – so much so that I wasn’t able to track 3 of them (all Tyrone) and I inferred what happened on a few more (i.e. camera cuts back from replay to show a player bursting through a scrum with the ball).

Tyrone did quite well in this facet of the game. They broke even in terms of kickouts won but were much more efficient at getting shots from the subsequent possession. This makes sense, as Donegal mind the possession they have much more, but it is still a very good return given how well Donegal’s midfield played last year.

Donegal, surprisingly given the way the kickout is evolving, did not take one short kickout and hit 86% long (past the 45m line) despite losing the majority. They simply eliminated the risk of a turnover in their own half.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Mattie Donnelly (Tyrone)	4	2	50%	+0.316
C McFadden (Donegal)	3	2	67%	+0.838
P McBrearty (Donegal)	3	2	67%	+0.285
M Murphy (Donegal)	3	1	33%	-0.565
Justin McMahon (Tyrone)	2	1	50%	+0.355
C Cavanagh (Tyrone)	2	1	50%	+0.218
S O’Neill (Tyrone)	2	1	50%	+0.103
Joe McMahon (Tyrone)	2	0	0%	-0.701

Cavan V Armagh 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Cavan	34	32	94%	16	50%	-0.3958
Armagh	40	29	73%	12	41%	-2.167
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

What has been a recurring theme in the commentary on this game, and will be laced throughout this piece, is Armagh’s defensive tactics. The effect of this can be seen in a number of areas and none more so than in Cavan’s 94% shot rate.

In all bar two occasions when Cavan got the ball into Armagh’s 45 they got a shot off. This is phenomenal and an indicator of the lack of pressure the Cavan forwards were under. They were rarely tackled by multiple defenders nor forced to spray the ball back and forth across the line looking for a gap. Armagh left lots of space; the ball was played into it, gathered and a shot taken. Cavan’s slightly below average weighting shows that, Dunne apart, their execution left a lot to be desired.

Armagh did have their chances, with above average possession and shots, but their execution let them down.

Shots from play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Cavan	27	14	52%	+0.9291
Armagh	23	7	30%	-2.033
2012 avg	20.14	9.36	46.47%

Dunne and Keating had 19 shots from play between them scoring 10 points. Dunne was a lot more efficient (73% Success Rate (8/11) & Weighting of +2.41) than Keating (25% (2/8) weighting of -1.87) however the supply to both really had to be shut down.

Armagh’s shooting from play was very poor. Cavan marked Clarke out of it ensuring he only had one effort, apart from the ghost goal, which was knocked out of his hands. Unfortunately for Armagh none of his teammates stood up to take his place

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
M Dunne (Cavan)	3	1	33%	-0.961
N McDermott (Cavan)	1	1	100%	+0.159
C Gilsenan (Cavan)	1	0	0%	-0.519
S Forker (Armagh)	3	2	67%	-0.611
A Kernan (Armagh)	2	2	100%	+0.310
T Kernan (Armagh)	1	1	100%	+0.167
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

Apart from Tony Kernan’s wonderful sideline point there was nothing of note here – except perhaps Dunne missing two very easy frees in the first half.

Shot charts
Look at how close to goal all of Cavan’s shots are. Armagh’s man marking ensured that there was no “press” on the ball – Cavan could just get the ball in, turn and shoot.

Armagh, for all their failings, got the ball into the right area. They missed 6 shots from play from in and around Sector 5 – take the average from this sector and they are right there.

It is quite instructive to compare the two shot charts here with Mayo’s against Galway (here) and compare the accuracy from in front of the posts.

Cavan’s shooting

Armagh’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score, red = free/sideline, white = play, yellow = 45

Kickouts

Armagh had a +9 differential on winning kickouts but only turned this into a +3 differential in terms of shots. This was due, in the main, to Cavan’s excellent shot rate – every kickout they turned into a possession also became a shot.

Although on the surface a -3 differential on shots from kickouts won is not a bad days work this will be an area of concern for Cavan. They will surely not meet a defence as accommodating again. If they continue to win just 40% of kickouts we can expect the conversion to possessions, and then shots, to drop. Were this to happen it would provide a huge platform for their opponents.

Players with >= 2 shots from play
Eugene Keating had a bad day but he was stellar against Donegal last year (here). I think it is safe to assume that both he and Dunne will regress to the mean – if this does happen then Cavan will be looking for more production from the rest of the team.

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
M Dunne (Cavan)	11	8	73%	+2.407
E Keating (Cavan)	8	2	25%	-1.869
S Forker (Armagh)	4	2	50%	+0.606
T Kernan (Armagh)	4	1	25%	-0.358
E Rafferty (Armagh)	3	1	33%	-0.135
M Shields (Armagh)	3	1	33%	-0.177
N McDermott (Cavan)	3	1	33%	-0.382
C Rafferty (Armagh)	2	1	50%	+0.215
K Dyas (Armagh)	2	0	0%	-0.926

Galway V Mayo 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Galway	31	26	84%	11	42%	-1.393
Mayo	36	31	86%	20	65%	+3.8949
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

Mayo’s numbers are very good but would you expect anything less from a team that scores 4-16, plays half the game against 14 and a good chunk of the second half against 13?

The fact that they had a stroll in the second half should not colour our view on just how good they were in the first half. They scored 12 times from 15 shots (10 /13 from play) with a Weighting of +4.56 in that first half and generally got their most consistent shooters on the end of moves. Dillon converted his two shots with Varley converting 3 from 5.

The flip side of that good first half Mayo performance is the Galway defending. Of the 13 shots that Mayo took from play I counted pressure on only 5 (38%). In the first half of a Championship game you have been targeting for months that is poor.

As a contrast Galway took 8 shots from play in that first half with Mayo pressurising 75% of them and actually blocking 3.

Now the second half can be completely written off as a contest however even with Mayo asleep at the wheel for the first 10 minutes (they only had one possession in that period to Galway’s 8) Galway couldn’t get a score from play. Again Mayo pressurised any shots they did take (pressure on 5 of the 7) and blocked a further two shots in the second half.

Shots from play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Galway	15	3	20%	-3.498
Mayo	27	16	59%	+3.3749
2012 avg	20.14	9.36	46.47%

Mayo’s second half shooting from play was actually below their first despite the numerical advantage. They hit 77% (10 from 13) in the first half but only 43% (6 from 14) in the second however we can forgive them this as the intensity had gone at that stage.

There’s not that much that can be said about Galway’s shooting that a return of 3 points and a Success Rate of 20% doesn’t already convey. One thing to note from Galway’s shot chart below, in relation to Mayo’s, is how wide the shots are; and when they did get in front of goals Mayo blocked 3 of the 4 shots from Sector 8.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
C O’Connor (Mayo)	4	4	100%	+0.52
M Meehan (Galway)	8	5	63%	+0.7793
S Armastrong (Galway)	2	2	100%	+0.884
S Walsh (Galway)	1	1	100%	+0.442
2012 team avgs	6.88	4.6	66.9%

One area of the game that Galway did have some positives in was here. All three players had above average days whilst they managed to keep O’Connor to only 4 attempts from frees.

Shot charts
Mayo’s shot chart is quite interesting in that they have two distinct clusters. One is in Sector 5 in which they scored 7 from 7 (including 3 O’Connor frees) whilst the other is Sector 7 just inside the 21m line where they only hit 2 from 7 (both Dillon’s points incidentally – he is an exceptionally accurate shooter).

Galway’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score

Mayo’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score

Kickouts

There are a couple of things that strike me immediately from the kickout battle.
–> Firstly Mayo had a +7 shot differential on kickouts won. That is a very nice position to have where there will be c54 shots in an average game.
–> Mayo won 88% (15 from 17) of their own kickouts. Yes they hit 8 short but they still won possession on 8 of the other 9 (89%) kickouts
–> Ultimately though they were devastatingly efficient on Galway’s kickouts. Although they gained possession on 15 of their own kickouts they only converted that to 5 shots. On Galway’s kickouts they converted 11 wins into 8 shots.

Player’s contributions can often go unnoticed if they are not getting their name on the scoreboard. One such player on Sunday was Kevin McLoughlin. At the start of the game, when everything was to play for, he got his hands on breaking ball from 4 of Galway’s first 6 kickouts. He emerged with the ball cleanly 3 times and won a free the fourth – those 4 possessions turned into 3 points, settled Mayo down and laid the platform for an excellent start.

Players with >= 2 shots from play
Not much to be added here except that someone in the Mayo camp needs to have a word with Dillon. He needs to shoot more – in Mayo’s last 4 Championship games he has hit 9 from 11 (82%) from play and hit the post with one of his misses

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
E Varley (Mayo)	6	4	67%	+1.5671
D Cummins (Galway)	5	2	40%	-0.3896
C O’Connor (Mayo)	4	2	50%	-0.1788
M Meehan (Galway)	3	0	0%	-1.379
D Vaughan (Mayo)	2	2	100%	+1.0655
A Dillon (Mayo)	2	2	100%	+1.0313
P Conroy (Galway)	2	1	50%	+0.3887
C Carolan (Mayo)	2	1	50%	+0.2395
A Freeman (Mayo)	2	1	50%	+0.1493
D Coen (Mayo)	2	1	50%	+0.1375
L Keegan (Mayo)	2	1	50%	-0.0247
S Walsh (Galway)	2	0	0%	-0.7046
S O’Shea (Mayo)	2	0	0%	-1.196

Dublin V Tyrone 2013 League Final

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	41	32	78%	18	56%	+0.7423
Tyrone	34	31	91%	17	55%	+1.3168
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

Good returns all round. The first half was quite open with 20 scores from 41 possessions (49%) however the game tightened up in the second half with 15 points from 34 possessions (44%)

In the semi final it was noted that Kildare got 33 shots off and that this would be a slight concern (this is “only” the league after all) for Tyrone. If it is a concern then this outing won’t have eased it any.

Tyrone’s shooting in general was poor with only Morgan’s deadball striking ensuring a positive return. The 91% shot rate is excellent however can, in part, be attributed to Morgan. Tyrone got 5 shots from Morgan outside the 45 – normally teams would get 3 or 4 shots from these 5 possession thus reducing the percentages to the mid eighties.

Shots from play

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
Dublin	22	11	50%	+0.9794
Tyrone	22	9	41%	-1.072
2012 avg	20.14	9.36	46.47%

For quite a while now the knock on the Dublin forwards has been that no one has stepped up to support Brogan. Mannion scored 3 points from play with Rock getting two from the bench in a game where Brogan only had one shot from play (blocked for a 45). I’m sure Gavin will be happy to score 11 from play without Brogan getting on the scoresheet – I’m sure he’ll be even happier if the support cast do this whilst Brogan is on song as well.

Mentioning Rock the difference in the game could easily be put down to the bench. Rock & Philly McMahon scored 3 points from 3 shots whilst in the same period Coney & Kane missed 3 from 3.

Shots from deadballs

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
B Brogan (Dublin)	6	5	83%	+0.0176
S Cluxton (Dublin)	2	1	50%	+0.0192
P Mannion (Dublin)	2	1	50%	-0.2739
N Morgan (Tyrone)	6	5	83%	+2.0036
M Penrose (Tyrone)	2	2	100%	+0.3298
S Cavanagh (Tyrone)	1	1	100%	+0.0556
team avgs	6.88	4.60	66.9%

Two very different 5 point returns here. Brogan scored 5 points but basically had an average day as all his frees were in close and in positions that an average county player would be expected to get.

Niall Morgan on the other hand had a superlative day out. In the Tyrone shooting chart below all 6 of the furthest out shots were his. Converting 5 of these is well above what could be expected. Morgan’s power & accuracy is such that he could, on his own, change how teams approach Tyrone. The foul zone for the opposition is a lot further out thus giving Tyrone players that extra split second on the ball in an area where they can pick an inside pass.

A quick note on Séan Cavanagh’s day. He popped over the only free he had but also contributed 3 points from play (4 shots – weighting of +0.863). As important however is his hidden value – he won 3 frees that Tyrone scored points from. That’s a direct impact in 7 of Tyrone’s scores.

Shot charts
The below shot charts are produced without comment – they are something new being worked on for the Championship and should be very instructive in comparing where teams are shooting (and missing) from.

Dublin’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score

Tyrone’s shooting

x = missed, disc = score

Kickouts

Team	Won	%	Turned into Attack	%	Turned into Shot	%
Dublin	30	56%	22	73%	19	63%
Tyrone	24	44%	17	71%	15	63%

Dublin, as is almost expected given Cluxton’s accuracy, dominated their own kickouts winning 69% (18/26) and gaining 6 more shots than Tyrone did; Dublin got 10 shots from their kickouts whilst Tyrone got 4.

Tyrone were less successful on their kickouts only gaining two more shots than Dublin (11 versus 9). Dublin in fact were excellent on Tyrone’s kickouts; they won 43% (12/28) but managed to convert 11 of these wins into possessions and 9 into shots.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Weighting
C McAliskey (Tyrone)	5	3	60%	+0.5206
P Andrews (Dublin)	5	1	20%	-1.614
P Mannion (Dublin)	4	3	75%	+1.3121
S Cavanagh (Tyrone)	4	3	75%	+0.863
D Connolly (Dublin)	4	2	50%	+0.1485
D Rock (Dublin)	2	2	100%	+1.0711
C Gormley (Tyrone)	2	1	50%	+0.138
Mark Donnelly (Tyrone)	2	1	50%	+0.0925
P Kane (Tyrone)	2	0	0%	-0.7315
J Whelan (Dublin)	2	0	0%	-0.759
A Cassidy (Tyrone)	2	0	0%	-1.079

Kildare V Tyrone 2013 League

In what was again an open game at Croke Park the difference between the teams was their ability to convert their chances.

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Return Vs Expected
Kildare	39	33	85%	14	42%	-2.281
Tyrone	42	29	69%	16	55%	+2.694
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

Kildare can take a lot of positives from this game. They started 6 U21s yet managed to have a shot rate of 85%. Normally such a high percentage is associated with very deliberate teams who patiently hold on to the ball waiting for the most advantageous opportunity before shooting. That wasn’t Kildare in this game. Instead they pulled the trigger whenever the opportunity arose. We’ll have more on their accuracy later!

What is a positive for one team is almost by nature a negative for the opposition. Tyrone will be concerned at just how many shots Kildare got off. Kildare got 5 shots at goal and, of the 21 shots Kildare took from play for a point, only 57% were under any sort of pressure from a Tyrone player.

Tyrone’s shooting from play was sublime (see table below) highlighted by Stephen O’Neill’s contribution. He had 4 shots, converted all 4, and also gave the hand pass that sprung Tyrone for the first goal. Their only concern, and a point of positive emphasis for Kildare, will be that they got so few shots from so much possession. You would have to think there will be a lot less space against Donegal thus they’ll have to up that shot rate from 69%.

FROM PLAY

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
Kildare	26	10	38%	-1.446
Tyrone	21	12	57%	+3.0835
2012 avg	20.14	9.36	46.47%

We have already highlighted Stephen O’Neill but the two Donnelly’s also had excellent shooting days; Mattie hit 3 out of 4 shots (Expected Return of +1.208) whilst Mark hit 2 from 2 (Expected Return of +1.178).

The only blot on Tyrone’s day would be how quiet Séan Cavanagh was (2 shots, neither converted) however he did win three frees that turned into shots.

The last time we saw Kildare (Vs Kerry; report here) the shooting burden resided on Johnston’s shoulders. Against Tyrone John Doyle took over. The below table shows his day’s work

John Doyle’s day

Shot Type	Shots	Scores	Vs Expected
Frees	6	4	-0.2771
Play	7	2	-0.8528

Whilst it is almost unfair to highlight a player who has taken a team on his back countless times Doyle’s shooting, at times from poor angles whilst under pressure, let a lot of Kildare’s good approach work down. We saw with Cillian O’Connor that good players bounce back from a bad performance; Kildare will need Doyle to do so.

FROM DEADBALLS

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
N Morgan (Tyrone)	4	1	25%	-1.064
S Cavanagh (Tyrone)	3	2	67%	+0.2223
D McCurry (Tyrone)	1	1	100%	+0.4519
J Doyle (Kildare)	6	4	67%	-0.2771
E O’Flaherty (Kildare)	1	0	0%	-0.558
team avgs	6.88	4.60	66.9%

We have already discussed Doyle’s poor day at the office. Negative returns are not a new phenomenon for Kildare; they only hit 40% (2 from 5; Expected Return of -0.733) against Kerry and 33% (4 from 12; Expected Return of -2.65) against Cork in last year’s All Ireland quarter-final. They have tried numerous players on free taking duty but just cannot find the consistency of the top teams.

Tyrone were fine though they appear to be stretching Morgan to the limit of his very powerful leg. Some of the frees he took were monsters and he may be losing accuracy in an attempt to get distance.

KICKOUTS
Kildare kickouts

Team	Won	%	Turned into Attack	%	Turned into Shot	%
Kildare	15	60%	11	73%	7	47%
Tyrone	10	40%	8	80%	8	80%

Tyrone kickouts

Team	Won	%	Turned into Attack	%	Turned into Shot	%
Kildare	7	28%	5	71%	4	57%
Tyrone	18	72%	8	44%	7	39%

The last time we saw Kildare on the TV they were destroyed by a marauding Dublin team. They gave Dublin possession on their kickouts whilst being penned back on their own kickouts. Prior to that they had managed to hold their own against a strong Kerry team using Brian Flanagan under the majority of breaking balls.

Since then Flanagan has gotten injured whilst they have changed goalkeeper. The net result – they managed to do well, in a possession sense, from their own kickouts (winning 60%) but were still very poor at defending their own kickouts that Tyrone won (Tyrone got 80% of shots from Kildare kickouts they won).

Tyrone destroyed Kildare on their kickouts (winning 72%) however whether it was poor distribution from Tyrone, or good defensive work from Kildare, Tyrone were poor at converting that strength into shots.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
J Doyle (Kildare)	7	2	29%	-0.8528
P O’Neill (Kildare)	5	3	60%	+0.9048
Stephen O’Neill (Tyrone)	4	4	100%	+2.3414
Mattie Donnelly (Tyrone)	4	3	75%	+1.2079
P Brophy (Kildare)	4	2	50%	+0.3374
C McAlliskey (Tyrone)	3	2	67%	+0.4232
M Penrose (Tyrone)	3	1	33%	-0.1464
P Cribben (Kildare)	3	1	33%	-0.4244
Mark Donnelly (Tyrone)	2	2	100%	+1.178
E O’Flaherty (Kildare)	2	1	67%	+0.1105
S Cavanagh (Tyrone)	2	0	0%	-0.862

Dublin V Mayo 2013 League

Possession stats like these, whilst well above the 2012 Championship average, are not unknown. In the 2010 Championship Dublin were involved in 5 separate games with 87 or greater possessions; the drop off in possessions from 2010 to 2012 is discussed more in-depth here.

Team	Possessions	Shots	Shot Rate	Scores	Success Rate	Return Vs Expected
Dublin	46	36	78%	18	50%	+0.9649
Mayo	40	31	78%	16	52%	-0.6853
2012 avg	35.28	27.02	76.6%	13.96	51.67%

What is unusual, and led to the relatively high scoring in the game, is that both teams maintained average shooting & success rates. They both had a lot more possession but as a result of keeping their averages up got more shots off and thus more scores.

FROM PLAY

Team	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
Dublin	32	15	47%	+0.7277
Mayo	21	8	38%	-1.055
2012 avg	20.14	9.36	46.47%

There is a bit more of a discrepancy here. There is an interdependency between how many shots from play you take and your opposition’s willingness/ability to foul you. Mayo only got 21 shots from play (which is still average) because they also received 10 free kicks within shooting range.

We know from the semi final last year (here) that Mayo are quite willing to bring a man down if necessary. They didn’t do it here (Dublin only got 4 frees within shooting range). Was this because they were off the pace and unable to foul Dublin – given the fact that Dublin got 32 shots they had plenty of opportunity – or was it that their intensity, for whatever reason, was a notch below Dublin’s?

I charted Mayo getting pressure on 66% (21/32) of Dublin’s shots from play. Dublin got pressure on 71% of Mayo’s (15/21). A difference yes but in a vacuum not one you could point to as empirical evidence that Mayo weren’t showing the required intensity. I can understand why Dublin fouled so frequently given that they were protecting against goals; I’m just not sure why Mayo didn’t do it to slow up a rampaging Dublin.

FROM DEADBALLS

Player	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
B Brogan (Dublin)	2	1	50%	-0.666
P Mannion (Dublin)	1	1	100%	+0.4519
S Cluxton (Dublin)	1	1	100%	+0.4519
C O’Connor (Mayo)	9	7	78%	+0.2152
K McLoughlin (Mayo)	1	1	100%	+0.1548
team avgs	6.88	4.60	66.9%

After highlighting Cillian O’Connor relatively poor game (here) last week it is only fair we highlight that he had a good game yesterday. His Return Vs Average on frees wasn’t great because the majority of them were in the gettable range; he also missed an easy enough one at the start of the 2nd half from Sector 5. His only other miss from a free was one taken from outside the 45.

KICKOUTS

Team	Won	%	Turned into Attack	%	Turned into Shot	%
Dublin	29	57%	24	83%	20	69%
Mayo	22	43%	17	77%	13	59%

Mayo are known to have a strong midfield however we saw last week that with a judicious use of short kickouts Cork were able to keep their own kickouts away from Mayo ((here) – Mayo only ‘won’ 5 of Cork’s 21 kickouts).

Dublin did something very similar. On their own kickouts Dublin secured possession on 74% of them (17 out of 23). As is their wont with Cluxton at the helm they only hit 1 kickout long (past the 65m) and by pin pointing mid range & short kickouts kept the ball away from Mayo.

Whilst it may have caught Mayo by surprise against Cork they really should have been prepared against Dublin. In last year’s semi final they appeared to have Dublin’s kick outs keyed with Cluxton flummoxed more than once but in this game, despite knowing what Dublin wanted to do, they allowed Dublin to get shots from 71% of their kickouts (12 shots from 17 kickouts won)

Players with >= 2 shots from play

	Shots	Scores	Success Rate	Vs Expected
P Mannion (Dublin)	8	4	50%	+0.2398
B Brogan (Dublin)	6	4	67%	+1.4725
P Andrews (Dublin)	5	0	0%	-2.004
M Conroy (Mayo)	5	3	60%	+0.5031
D Connolly (Dublin)	3	3	100%	+1.8339
D Vaughan (Mayo)	3	0	0%	-1.164
L Keegan (Mayo)	3	0	0%	-1.253
A O’Shea (Cork)	2	2	100%	+1.2685
J Whelan (Dublin)	2	2	100%	+1.1105
C O’Connor (Mayo)	2	1	50%	+0.2449
C Carolan (Mayo)	2	1	50%	+0.138
J McCaffrey (Dublin)	2	1	50%	+0.0036