Original transcripts of the three games can be found at 2012, 2013, 2014
When Cork have the Ball
| Year | Attacks | Shots | Shot % | Scores | Success % | Weighting |
| 2012 | 37 | 31 | 84% | 17 | 55% | +1.481 |
| 2013 | 30 | 26 | 87% | 17 | 65% | +3.850 |
| 2014 | 26 | 23 | 88% | 12 | 52% | -0.359 |
| Avg | 37.0 | 28.7 | 77.7% | 14.7 | 51.2% |
Cork’s attacking play disintegrated last year. They managed a full 16 less attacks than Kerry did however this was the tipping point of a trend (if 3 games can be considered a trend!) rather than a one off. And something they need to rectify this Sunday.
The difference in attacks over the three years was Cork +4, Cork -7 & Cork -16. 2014’s defeat, whilst comprehensive, was not completely unexpected when compared to 2013. Yes Cork only lost by two points in 2013 but their shooting was sublime that day converting 65% of their shots and only leaving Kerry’s 45 without a shot on four occasions. They couldn’t repeat the trick in 2014.
Last year they converted 88% of their attacks to shots but their attack volume was so low that average shooting only produced 12 points. On 26 attacks an average team will score 0-10 or 1-09 … to get the 17 points that Cork achieved in 2012 and 2013, off average shooting, they will need 42 attacks. Assuming they maintain a high Shot Rate (in the mid 80 percentile) then off average shooting they need 39 attacks.
If they get the best of both worlds – a high Shot Rate and a high Conversion Rate (60%) – they still need 33 attacks. Sunday *has* to be about primary possession and transference of that possession into the 45. They have proved over the three years that they can manufacture shots when they attack and that their shooting is above average. They just need the ball.
From Play
| Shots | Scores | Success % | Weighting | |
| 2012 | 22 | 12 | 55% | +2.34 |
| 2013 | 18 | 10 | 56% | +2.19 |
| 2014 | 16 | 5 | 31% | -1.96 |
| Avgs | 21.4 | 9.7 | 45.3% |
Of course what would help immensely are goals. Or even one goal. In the last three games Cork have only manufactured 8 goal shots and returned a paltry 0 – 03. I say *only* as for comparison (unfair) Dublin managed 8 attempts at goal against Kildare scoring 4 – 01 whilst (fair?) combined Dublin & Kerry managed 9 in two games against the vaunted Donegal defence.
Cork were better in 2014 as they managed four attempts but they all came in the last ~15 minutes when the game was over.
Even with four missed goal shots in the numbers Cork’s 2014 shooting from play was abysmal; 33% going for a point (4 from 12) with a combined weighting of -1.335. They’ll need to rediscover the shooting boots from ’12 & ’13 to win on Sunday.
For points by Sector
| Sector | Shots | Scores | Success % | Weighting |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +0.62 |
| 4 | 10 | 3 | 30% | -0.59 |
| 5 | 13 | 8 | 62% | +1.52 |
| 6 | 9 | 3 | 33% | -0.23 |
| 7 | 8 | 4 | 50% | +0.60 |
| 8 | 4 | 4 | 100% | +1.17 |
| 9 | 3 | 1 | 33% | -0.25 |
Nothing about where Cork are shooting from stands out hugely except perhaps that they are just average when shooting from the wings. Against the big teams this can be a productive area as they mind the square – think Flynn against Donegal in last year’s AI semi final. If Cork are going to continue taking 67% (32 of 48 attempts) of their point attempts from between the 20 & 45m then they’ll have to convert more from the wings.
When Kerry have the Ball
| Year | Attacks | Shots | Shot % | Scores | Success % | Weighting |
| 2012 | 33 | 27 | 82% | 12 | 44% | -1.100 |
| 2013 | 37 | 33 | 89% | 17 | 52% | +1.345 |
| 2014 | 42 | 38 | 90% | 24 | 63% | +4.575 |
| Avg | 37.0 | 28.7 | 77.7% | 14.7 | 51.2% |
Kerry’s attacking play has improved year on year with a step up in every metric (attacks, Shot Rate, Success Rate & weighting) from ’12 to ’13 to ’14.
Not much more that can be added really – more of the same from a Kerry perspective
From Play
| Shots | Scores | Success % | Weighting | |
| 2012 | 20 | 9 | 45% | +0.08 |
| 2013 | 26 | 11 | 42% | -0.05 |
| 2014 | 31 | 19 | 61% | +4.68 |
| Avgs | 21.4 | 9.7 | 45.3% |
Much like Cork if there was one area of concern for Kerry (concern is a bit strong – an area that needs polishing) it would be their goal taking. In the three games they’ve taken 10 shots at goal but scored only 1 – 02.
Their point taking in 2014 was phenomenal (67% Success Rate with a weighting of +5.313) however prior to that it was average. So what was the difference?
My immediate reaction was to say O’Donoghue – take him out of the picture given his phenomenal 2014 performance and the three games would level off. Not quite
| Shots | Scores | Success % | Weighting | |
| 2012 | 18 | 7 | 39% | -1.14 |
| 2013 | 22 | 8 | 36% | -1.44 |
| 2014 | 21 | 11 | 52% | +1.72 |
Yes O’Donoghue had a huge bearing but the rest of the team stepped up as well. Now undoubtedly they were getting more space (a) due to O’Donoghue and (b) due to the nature of the game compared to ’12 & ’13 but as a collective they still outperformed the two previous years. Something for Cork to note perhaps when they review the 2014 tape.
As for O’Donoghue? He has been incredible against Cork converting 93% (!!) of his point attempts over the three years. Below is his shot chart from ’13 & ’14 (the ’12 version has gone awol) showing how close into goal he has played.
x = for a goal, white = for a point
From Deadballs
| Shots | Scores | Success % | Weighting | |
| 2012 | 7 | 3 | 43% | -1.18 |
| 2013 | 7 | 6 | 86% | +1.40 |
| 2014 | 7 | 5 | 71% | -0.11 |
I stated above that one area Kerry might look to polish up on was goal shots – there is a second. Their deadball shooting has been average over the past three games scoring 0-14 from 21 attempts (67% conversion Rate).
If Cork can keep it close, and increase the pressure on the free taking, this may just be an area that will let Kerry down on Sunday.
Tags: 2015, championship, Cork, Kerry
dontfoul 
Leave a Reply