B Brogan – a review

Following the review of point taking it became clear that B Brogan was an outlier, both in terms of volume of shots and Success Rates.

 

 

The volume of shots is not a real surprise given the fact that he has been the main marksman on the most attacking team over the past three years. Nearly every Dublin game being televised doesn’t hurt the volume either. His accuracy however, defined by both his Success Rate and his weighting, is a surprise.

 

Table A; Brogan’s attempts for points from play

			Shot Frequency		Success Rate
Sector	Shots	Points	Brogan	Average	Brogan	Average
4	11	4	19%	23%	36%	37%
5	10	5	18%	25%	50%	50%
6	13	5	23%	18%	38%	35%
7	3	–	5%	13%	0%	42%
8	15	7	26%	13%	47%	70%
9	5	1	9%	9%	20%	46%
Total	57	22			39%	45%

Note; – for a representation of the pitch segments see the graph in the Appendix

 

Brogan’s shooting returns outside the 20m line (Sectors4, 5 & 6) are bang in line with the average. His shot frequencies are split quite evenly across the pitch whilst his Success Rates, for such relatively small numbers, are remarkably in line with the average – nothing to see here really.

It is when we get inside the 20m line that issues arise. Firstly his shooting is concentrated in Sector8, directly in front of goals, with 26% of all shots coming from here. This is against the average of 13%.

Whilst his shot selection may appear correct (getting more shots from the most productive area) Brogan is only converting 42% (7 from 15) of his shots from Sector8 as against an average of 70%.

At this vantage it is hard to say why it is that Brogan is so poor from such a productive Sector. His misses have come against all forms of defences (Mayo, Donegal, Kildare, Laois, Meath) not just massed defences whilst it has occurred throughout all three years as well; 4 in 2012, 1x 2013 & 3x 2014. It could be that given Dublin’s propensity to go for goal he is holding onto the ball too long awaiting a goal opportunity allowing the defences to get back but whatever the reason it is this very poor return that is damaging both his Success Rate and his weighting.

As an aside when Brogan does try a shot from inside the 20m line, but not centrally, his returns are also very poor.

He is only converting 13% (1 from 8) combined from Sectors7 & 9 though those volumes are very small. It is perhaps more an indication for opposing defences – if you push him wide close in to goal he is probably more likely to offload than shoot.

Below is Brogan’s shot chart for 2014 – it is very indicative of what he has produced over the past three years.

 

 

APPENDIX

 

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