Kerry v Mayo Replay 2014 Championship

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

All data below includes Extra Time unless otherwise stated.

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Kerry 50 40 80% 19 48% -1.960
Mayo 42 32 76% 16 50% +0.068
Champ (’12 & ’13 avg 70 mins) 35.8 27.6 77.2% 14.1 51.0%

Over the 90 minutes Kerry just had too many attacks for Mayo. It was Mayo’s efficiency in normal time that produced Extra Time (84% Shot Rate and 54% Success Rate in 70 minutes) but they were always relying on eeking the most out of minimal attacking ball.

Extra Time

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Kerry 12 10 83% 5 50% -0.186
Mayo 11 6 55% 2 33% -0.907

There are no reference points for what *should* happen in extra time but above are the returns. Mayo had the attacking possessions to inflict damage on Kerry but they could not maintain the aforementioned efficiency – indeed they went c14 minutes of playing time without a shot in Extra Time with O’Connor’s desperate goal attempt at the end of the match being their only shot in the second half.

Where attacks originated

Opposition k/out Own k/out Ball received in Own 3rd Ball received in Mid 3rd Ball received in Opposition 3rd Other (throw-in, rebound etc.)
Kerry 13 13 13 6 1 4
Mayo 11 7 13 5 1 5

In the Croke Park encounter the teams’ created their attacks from very similar areas – indeed the only real difference was that Kerry created two attacks from the throw Ins. In Limerick on Sunday there was some daylight – Kerry created eight more attacks from kickouts. We’ll go into more detail on the kickout section below but ultimately it was these extra attacks that allowed Kerry to be so profligate from play and yet still come out on top.

Shots from Play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Kerry 30 10 33% -3.763
Mayo 22 11 50% +0.896
Champ avgs (’12 & ’13 70 mins) 20.3 9.2 45.4%

After praising Kerry’s shooting from play the last day they throw in an absolute stinker. That is a very un-Kerry like stat line. In three Championship games prior to this one Kerry’s combined Success Rate from play was 62.4% with a weighting of +13.178. They had been imperious – and had hit 63% against the same defence six days previously.

There did not appear to be anything untoward in the shots they were taking. Nothing that would lead to such a negative return anyway. I charted only 37% (11 from 30) of shots occurring under pressure whilst the shot charts below show that none of the attempts were from ridiculous angles. Their poor returns would appear to be just one of those days.

The majority of the poor shooting can be laid at the door (feet?) of what might be considered the support cast in terms of shooting. Of the seven players that attempted one shot for a point only Killian Young converted. The likes of O’Mahony, Sheehan, M Geaney & Crowley all missed fairly central shots.

Whilst Mayo’s returns are at best efficient their problems were outside that of mere execution. Shot selection was one. They attempted six shots from outside 30m whilst also attempting another six from wide positions inside 30m. Twelve shots outside what might be deemed the optimal shooting zone with only two points to show for it.

Options was another. Their forward unit has been much maligned but in a way it was the lack of any other option that hindered them. Of the 22 shots from play over 90 minutes only four came from outside the starting six forwards- Keegan, Conroy & Vaughan x2.

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
J O’Donoghue (Kerry) 4 4 100% +1.870
P Geaney (Kerry) 3 3 100% +0.260
BJ Keane (Kerry) 2 2 100% +0.173
D Moran (Kerry) 1 0 0% -0.500
C O’Connor (Mayo) 7 4 57% -0.070
A Freeman (Mayo) 1 1 100% +0.160
R Hennelly (Mayo) 1 0 0% -0.371
K McLoughlin (Mayo) 1 0 0% -0.545
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ) 7.3 4.9 66.7%

Kerry converted 9 out of 10 deadball attempts with the only miss coming from a Moran 45.

A 90% Success Rate, when compared to the average of 67%, is excellent though the percentage is padded to some extent by the nature of the deadballs. O’Donoghue’s penalties were dispatched with aplomb but we know that over the past two years 88% of penalties have been converted. Also all of BJ Keane & P Geaney’s frees were taken from close in to goal where a c93% Success Rate is expected.

Only an egregious error, or a wonderful save, would have resulted in seven of those deadballs not being converted.

O’Connor’s returns may appear poor, given his status as a supreme marksman from deadballs, but again the Success Rate and weighting are negatively affected by his attempt at a goal with Mayo’s last shot at the end of extra time. Remove this and his returns are basically average (Success Rate of 67%, weighting +0.338).

Up until this weekend O’Connor had been converting deadballs at an 80% clip but four of his five misses had been from around the 45m line and further out. This of course implies that he was nearly flawless inside the 45 – 20 from 21.

It was a similar story here. O’Connor converted all three frees (as well as the penalty) from inside the 45 but missed a 45 and a long range effort from the left.

Turnovers

Team “coughing up” possession Volume Shots from Turnovers %
Kerry 37 20 54%
Mayo 34 22 65%

 

Misplaced Pass Tackled Shots not going dead Other
Kerry 13 10 6 8
Mayo 19 9 2 4

In the drawn game the teams could not be separated in terms of turnovers. Over the 70 minutes in this game the two teams were more careful with the ball – 52 total turnovers in the 70 minutes versus 61 the previous day.

Whilst each team’s volume of turnovers was very similar Kerry were more clinical at converting these turnovers to shots. This was not necessarily helped by easy turnover ball either – only twice did they receive the ball inside Mayo’s 65.

Mayo’s press defence was in effect again (4 turnovers inside Kerry’s 65 whilst also getting their hands on a short kickout) but Kerry in the main were good enough, and intelligent enough, footballers to get away with the ball.

Kickouts

Kerry’s kickouts Won % Turned into a possession % Shot %
Kerry 16 55% 13 81% 9 56%
Mayo 13 45% 10 77% 8 62%
Mayo’s kickouts Won % Turned into a possession % Shot %
Kerry 17 59% 12 71% 8 47%
Mayo 12 41% 7 58% 4 33%

Kerry managed 5 more shots from the kickouts they won. This was not through a better use of the ball, as their kickouts won to shot percentage is very similar to Mayo, but rather due to the sheer volume of kickouts won (+8 overall).

The first day out we noted that Mayo broke even on kickouts due to their judicious use of the short kickout. When the ball was kicked beyond the 45 the lost the battle 20-15.

I’m not sure if it was the dimensions of the pitch, or whether Kerry were much more effective at pushing up, but Mayo only used the short kickout twice in 90 minutes here. Given what happened in the first game, and the fact that they were struggling so much in this one on their own kickout (losing kickouts landing beyond the 45 17-10) that decision seems strange.

From a Kerry perspective they will be slightly disappointed, given the large advantage they had in the first game, and on Mayo’s kickouts, with their own kickout performance. They went short four times (losing one early) so of their 25 contestable kickouts they only won the possession battle 13-12.

Shot Charts

Kerry’s shooting
Kerry shooting (V Mayo replay)

Mayo’s shooting
Mayo shooting (V Kerry replay)
x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play, blue = extra time

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
J O’Donoghue (Kerry) 9 4 44% -0.723
C O’Connor (Mayo) 6 3 50% +0.381
J Doherty (Mayo) 5 3 60% +0.907
A Moran (Mayo) 3 2 67% +0.525
P Geaney (Kerry) 3 1 33% -0.144
BJ Keane (Kerry) 3 0 0% -1.135
J Lyne (Kerry) 2 2 100% +1.142
M O’Sé (Kerry) 2 1 50% +0.282
D Vaughan (Mayo) 2 1 50% -0.068
K Donaghy (Kerry) 2 1 50% -0.116
K McLoughlin (Mayo) 2 1 50% -0.207
K O’Leary (Kerry) 2 0 0% -0.858
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