Mayo V Galway 2014 Championship

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Mayo 41 29 71% 17 59% +3.229
Galway 39 30 77% 16 53% +0.666
Champ (’12 & ’13 avg) 35.8 27.6 77.2% 14.1 51.0%

In a game that was never really close they are a fairly balanced set of figures.

From a Mayo perspective the one area of concern here may be the Shot Rate. 71% is poor but follows on the back of 64% against Roscommon. In their six games in the 2013 Championship the returns were 69%, 81%, 67%, 74%, 86% & 86% so there is a general level of fluctuation in this one metric but with a possible three games to go Mayo will want to better their recent production.

What Mayo will be please with is how they stamped out the Galway comeback at the start of the second half before it could gain momentum. In that first 15 minutes Galway had a lot of momentum gaining 0-05 from nine shots. Mayo were much more clinical however gaining 1-03 from five shots thus ensuring they stayed at arm’s length.

I have started to track where the attacks originate from. The results are below. There is nothing hugely different between the teams here, and no results to compare against, however it may throw up some interesting points in games to come. One of note is how often Galway received the ball from Mayo in the middle 3rd.

Opposition k/out Own k/out Ball received in Own 3rd Ball received in Mid 3rd Ball received in Opposition 3rd Other (throw-in, rebound etc.)
Mayo 9 12 12 2 3 3
Galway 8 8 14 5 2 2

Shots from Play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Mayo 22 12 55% +2.721
Galway 23 11 48% +0.561
Champ avgs (’12 & ’13) 20.3 9.2 45.4%

Again the returns are pretty similar but the main difference is in the clinical nature with which Mayo dispatched their goal shots. They had 5 in total netting 3-01. Galway had four and only managed 0-01.

Mayo’s point shooting as such was 47% (8 from 17) with a weighting of +0.757. Galway had a return of 50% (10 from 20) with a weighting of +0.783.

Within that Galway return there was a whole spectrum of individual performances. Cummins, Hoare & Walsh combined for a 31% Success Rate (4 from 13) with a weighting of -3.089 whilst Conroy & Armstrong scored on all six of their shots.

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
C O’Connor (Mayo) 7 5 71% +0.508
S Walsh (Galway) 7 5 71% +0.105
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ) 7.3 4.9 66.7%

Walsh was having a good day, hitting 5 frees from 5 attempts for a weighting of +1.013, until the missed penalty. Impossible as it is to prove it is hard to argue with the commentary on the game that the penalty miss must have weighed on his mind when taking the subsequent 45. Would Galway have been better employed getting someone else to take that shot?

As for the penalty it was a great save from Hennelly, diving low to his left, rather than a miss from Walsh. Still I have the conversion rate for penalties running at 83% from 24 in the database (where a player went for goal). Of the 4 “missed” two were saved – so only 8% of penalties are saved.

O’Connor’s day was above average without being spectacular – he missed two relatively central kicks (one was a 45) towards the end when the result wasn’t in doubt.

Kickouts

Mayo’s kickouts Won % Turned into a possession % Shot %
Mayo 18 67% 12 67% 8 44%
Galway 9 33% 8 89% 7 78%
Galway’s kickouts Won % Turned into a possession % Shot %
Mayo 12 48% 9 75% 7 58%
Galway 13 52% 8 62% 6 46%

Much was made, in the TV commentary, of how poorly Galway did on their own kickouts with the onscreen statistics showing them only winning 2 out of their own kickouts in the first half. Whilst “winning” kickouts is all based on definition I am unsure how such a low number was arrived at. In those 15 kickouts in the first half I had Galway winning 6 of them. It is still a poor return mind but nowhere near as poor as communicated.

In the second half Galway recovered some of the lost ground and eventually broke even on their own kickouts.

Mayo were in control of their own kickouts especially the “directional” variety. 14 of their 27 kickouts dropped short of the 65m line with Mayo winning 79% (11 out of 14). When they went long they won 54% (7 from 13).

Turnovers

Team “coughing up” possession Shots from Turnovers %
Mayo 29 12 41%
Galway 24 12 50%

 

Misplaced Pass Tackled Shots not going dead Other
Mayo 15 8 1 5
Galway 19 2 1 2

The first half was a bit of a scrappy affair with 24 (11 from Mayo, 13 from Galway) passes going astray between the two teams – 7 of these were from frees. So the team with the ball in their hand kicked it to the opposition 7 times! 6 more were hand passes that went astray.

As a contrast there were only 10 passes (4 from Mayo) that went astray in the second half.

Shot Charts

Galway’s nest of shots on the left between the 13m & 20m line is unique – very rarely will you see so many shots from there and never will you see them all converted.

Their downfall was the shooting from the “easier” sectors – Sectors 5 & 8 in front of the goal. Galway only converted 36% (4 from 11) of all shots taken centrally.

Mayo’s shooting
Mayo shooting (V Galway)

Galway’s shooting
Galway shooting (V Mayo)
x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
S Walsh (Galway) 5 2 40% -0.530
D Cummins (Galway) 5 1 20% -1.342
P Conroy (Galway) 4 4 100% +2.318
K McLoughlin (Mayo) 4 3 75% +1.449
C O’Connor (Mayo) 4 3 75% +1.448
L Keegan (Mayo) 3 2 67% +0.760
J Doherty (Mayo) 3 2 67% +0.525
A Dillon (Mayo) 3 1 33% -0.268
E Hoare (Galway) 3 0 0% -1.217
S Armstrong (Mayo) 2 2 100% +1.167
G Bradshaw (Galway) 2 1 50% +0.233
M Lundy (Galway) 2 1 50% -0.068
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One Response to “Mayo V Galway 2014 Championship”

  1. Cork v Mayo 2014 Championship | dontfoul Says:

    […] volume of attacks is a huge step up on what Mayo have produced this year (41 against Galway & 36 against Roscommon). Even in the hammerings they dispensed in last year’s Championship to […]

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