Roscommon V Mayo 2014 Championship

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Roscommon 37 27 73% 10 37% -2.368
Mayo 36 23 64% 13 57% +0.159
Champ avg (’12 & ’13) 35.8 27.6 77.2% 14.1 51.0%

Roscommon will be kicking themselves. They worked extremely hard to keep Mayo to a paltry 23 shots which is a lower than any team managed in Mayo’s run to the All Ireland final last year (returns of 27, 34, 33, 34, 37 & 31 in their six games). Included in those returns are the 37 shots that Mayo racked up against Roscommon in last year’s mauling.

Yes, like in last year’s encounter, Mayo had an excellent strike rate of 57% however from such a low base of 23 shots this should not have helped Mayo. And it wouldn’t have *if* Roscommon had had their shooting boots on. It was not as if Roscommon’s effort was purely defensive – they manufactured four more shots than Mayo – however they only converted a very poor 37% in total. Anywhere near the average of 51% and they would have won this game – even without Cafferkey’s goal.

Shots from Play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Roscommon 22 7 32% -2.401
Mayo 15 6 40% -0.970
Champ avg (’12 & ’13) 20.3 9.2 45.4%

Bad enough that Mayo only managed 15 shots from play but at one point it was looking a lot worse. They went 25 minutes in the 2nd half with just one shot from play – and that from Donie Vaughan. Granted O’Connor won four frees (in that time) which were all converted but such a fallow period from the rest of the forward line must be of huge concern to the Mayo selectors.

The stat line for Mayo from play at 60 minutes was a 22% Success Rate (2 from 9) with a weighting of -2.051 – it was looking horrendous with only their deadball accuracy keeping them in it. The one shaft of light they can take from the performance was that in that final ten minutes they stood up (4 scores from 6 shots with a weighting of +1.081).

In those 25 minutes at the start of the 2nd half, when Mayo had a combined 5 shots, Roscommon had 12 attempts at goal (10 from play & 2 from frees). They converted 1-05 (or 50%), which is the average, but it felt as though they were underperforming mainly due to the shot that they were attempting. Two of the three attempts were from outside the 45 whilst a further wider effort from Higgins hit the post.

On Kevin Higgins; he had a monster day in the middle of the park but his shooting options were poor. He had six attempts in total converting only one. None of his six attempts were from central zones and better options may have presented themselves if he had just retained the ball rather than shoot. But that’s hindsight.

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
C O’Connor (Mayo) 6 5 83% +0.440
K McLoughlin (Mayo) 2 2 100% +0.685
D Shine (Roscommon) 2 1 50% +0.019
S Kilbride (Roscommon) 1 1 100% +0.227
D Murtagh (Roscommon) 1 1 100% +0.160
F Cregg (Roscommon) 1 0 0% -0.371
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ) 7.3 4.9 66.7%

Excellent strike rate from Mayo with the only miss coming from a free just inside the 45 for the right footed O’Connor from the right side. Considering he converted 83% of his frees O’Connor’s weighting might appear low however three of his frees were more or less in front of goals.

Whilst the weighting might be low he still converted the attempts – and this after being directly responsible for winning four of Mayo’s eight frees. A stat that will go unnoticed in most reports on the game.

Whilst Roscommon’s combined returns were average (converting 3 from 5 attempts with a weighting of +0.036) Mayo will be delighted with their defensive effort. Only two of those attempts came from fouls within the 45.

Kickouts

Roscommon’s kickouts Won % Turned into a possession % Shot %
Roscommon 15 60% 9 60% 7 47%
Mayo 10 40% 6 60% 2 20%
Mayo’s kickouts Won % Turned into a possession % Shot %
Roscommon 8 42% 8 100% 8 100%
Mayo 11 58% 8 73% 7 64%

Although the headline numbers show an even contest, with a 23-21 split of kickouts won in favour of Roscommon, when we look a bit deeper Roscommon had by far the better of this contest.

Roscommon managed to convert 65% (15 of 23 won) of their kickouts won to a shot whereas Mayo only converted 43% (9 of 21). Roscommon managed an extra six shots from kickouts.

As can be seen from above the difference is most pronounced on what the teams did with primary possession from the opposition’s kickouts. Roscommon won 8 of Mayo’s 19 (42%) kickouts – and converted them all to shots. Mayo won 10 of Roscommon’s 25 kickouts (40%) but only managed to convert two to a shot.

Perhaps the most surprising element of the kickout battle was how few short kickouts there were – only three combined from the 43 we could track in full (the cameras missed one of the early Roscommon kickouts).

Turnovers

Team “coughing up” possession Shots from Turnovers %
Roscommon 30 9 30%
Mayo 34 14 41%

 

Misplaced Pass Tackled Shots not going dead Mishandled possession Fouled ball
Roscommon 11 12 5 1 1
Mayo 19 8 3 4 0

Again it is Roscommon coming out on top generating four more turnovers and also converting more of the turnovers they engineered into shots.

The table showing how the turnovers occurred backs up the earlier point about Mayo’s defensive discipline – 40% of the turnovers they manufactured came from tackles. On the games where turnovers have been tracked that figure of 12 tackles looks good. Tyrone managed 11 (37% of all turnovers) in their game with Down whilst there was 13 combined between Derry & Donegal.

What will be of concern to Mayo is the fact that they “gave” away 56% of their turnovers through misdirected passes. This is within their own control.

Shot Charts
Mayo were remarkably unbalanced in their shooting from play with only the one shot, from Aidan O’Shea, coming from the left hand side Sectors (sectors 6 & 9). I cannot say that I have noticed this from Mayo before so will chalk it down as an aberration – but one worth monitoring.

Mayo’s shooting
Mayo shooting (V Roscommon)

Roscommon’s shooting
Roscommon (V Mayo)
x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Kevin Higgins (Roscommon) 6 1 17% -1.174
K McLoughlin (Mayo) 4 2 50% +0.008
D Murtagh (Roscommon) 3 2 67% +0.922
S Kilbride (Roscommon) 3 2 67% +0.224
A Moran (Mayo) 2 2 100% +1.003
J Doherty (Mayo) 2 1 50% +0.281
C Shine (Roscommon) 2 0 0% -0.719
C Murtagh (Roscommon) 2 0 0% -0.824
D O’Gara (Roscommon) 2 0 0% -0.858
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One Response to “Roscommon V Mayo 2014 Championship”

  1. Cork v Mayo 2014 Championship | dontfoul Says:

    […] attacks is a huge step up on what Mayo have produced this year (41 against Galway & 36 against Roscommon). Even in the hammerings they dispensed in last year’s Championship to Galway (x36 attacks), […]

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