Derry V Mayo 2014 League

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Derry 40 33 83% 17 52% +0.467
Mayo 41 29 71% 17 59% +1.107
Champ (’12 & ’13 avg) 35.8 27.6 77.2% 14.1 51.0%

That old chestnut – goals win games. The outputs are pretty evenly matched. There was only one possession in the difference with Derry being more efficient with their Shot Rate whilst Mayo were more accurate with their shots.

Shots from Play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Derry 24 12 50% +1.683
Mayo 21 10 48% +0.538
Champ avgs (’12 & ’13) 20.3 9.2 45.4%

Considering they were down to 14 men for the majority of the game that is an excellent effort from Derry to outperform Mayo. The main protagonist for Derry was Mark Lynch who hit an excellent 4 scores from 6 shots with a weighting of +1.495.

Of course the corollary of this is that against 14 men Mayo will be disappointed to only produce an average number of shots from play. Doherty stepped up to the mark for them, taking 5 shots, but he only connected with 2 of them; no one was able to replicate Lynch’s performance for Mayo.

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
M Lynch (Derry) 8 5 63% -0.670
B Heron (Derry) 1 0 0% -0.547
A Freeman (Mayo) 8 6 75% +0.482
A Moran (Mayo) 1 1 100% +0.087
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ) 7.3 4.9 66.7%

Much of the post match discussion was around the volume and type of frees. Both teams had 9 shots at goal from deadballs; all Derry’s attempts were from frees whilst Mayo had seven frees and two 45s.

Over the two semi finals Mayo gave away a shot from a free on every 4.44 of the opposition’s possessions; for the same metric Derry gave away 5.85 frees per opposition possession, Cork 7.71 and Dublin 17.5

Lynch had a wonderful game but his place kicking was below average. Now those returns might be on the harsh side as two of his misses were from outside the 45. The volume of frees from outside the 45 is low, so the averages from these sectors may be weaker than the other sectors but the evidence we have to date suggests that he should have done better (or not taken the shot on at all from that far out).

A quick note for Lynn who won four of Derry’s shots from frees; it is a small statistic that will not show up anywhere but vitally important to any team.

Kickouts
Mayo won 60% of all kickouts (29 versus 19) and managed 5 more shots from those wins (19 shots to Derry’s 14). As ever those bare numbers don’t tell the whole story.

Mayo won a disproportionate 79% of their own kickouts (19 to Derry’s 5) however this is padded by the volume of short kickouts that Mayo employed. All bar one of those short kickouts occurred post the Fergal Doherty red card as Derry funneled back trying to set up with 14 men.

Rob Hennelly was too quick for TG4’s cameras on three occasions so of the 21 kickouts that we could fully chart 9 were taken short. Mayo won all 9 attempting 5 shots. Of the remaining 12 Mayo won 7 getting 5 shots whilst Derry won 5 getting 3 shots. So that is a shot differential of +7 for Mayo on their own kickouts.

Derry won possession on 58% of their own kickouts (14 to Mayo’s 10). Unlike Mayo Derry only went short once. Of the remaining 23 kickouts Derry won 13 getting 10 shots whilst Mayo won 10 getting 8 shots. A shot differential of +2.

A case of Mayo winning the kickout battle but Derry ultimately winning the war.

Players with >= 2 shots

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
M Lynch (Derry) 6 4 67% +1.459
J Doherty (Mayo) 5 2 40% +0.156
C O’Boyle (Derry) 4 2 50% +0.515
L Keegan (Mayo) 4 1 25% -0.485
M Sweeney (Mayo) 3 2 67% +0.224
A Moran (Mayo) 3 1 33% -0.192
E Varley (Mayo) 2 1 50% +0.215
S McGoldrick (Derry) 2 1 50% +0.003
C McFaul (Derry) 2 1 50% -0.417
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