Cork V Tyrone 2014 League

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Cork 39 30 77% 16 53% 1.050
Tyrone 46 39 85% 20 51% 0.860
Champ (’12 & ’13 avg) 35.8 27.6 77.2% 14.1 51.0%

The raw numbers would lead you to believe that Tyrone, with a far greater number of attacking possession and a higher Shot Rate, should have won this one comfortably. There are two things to note re this observation
(a) There is still no effective way, outside the 3 points gained, to weigh up the worth of a goal. Momentum, confidence, enabling teams to “stick around” thus applying pressure to the opposition all feed in to a goal’s worth. Tyrone raced to a 3 point lead with 5 shots from their first 5 possessions. Cork got a goal with only their second shot from four possessions. Tyrone’s stat line looks much better – 100% Shot Rate with 60% Success Rate versus 50% and 25%) but it’s still a draw game
(b) Tyrone’s possessions & Shot Rate are somewhat inflated by two separate scrambles. In the first a Niall Morgan free dropped short; Séan Cavanagh & Ronan O’Neil both had goal shots blocked. In the second Colm Cavanagh had a goal shot that was saved and broke to Penrose – whose subsequent shot was blocked for a 45. Six separate possessions (a possession ends with a shot or the opposition gaining control of the ball) with a 100% Shot Rate.

Shots from Play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Cork 26 12 46% -0.077
Tyrone 28 13 46% +1.240
Champ avgs (’12 & ’13) 20.3 9.2 45.4%

Cork’s accuracy was bang on average both in terms of Success Rate & Weighting but the volume of shots meant that they produced two more scores than the Championship average.

Tyrone went one better and had three scores above the average. Despite also having an average Success Rate their positive weighting shows a tendency to both take, and convert, more difficult shots than did Cork.

Digging below the headline numbers shows that Tyrone’s shooting performance was very poor outside of Coney & McCurry. Together that duo produced results of; 10 scores from 13 shots with a weighting of +4.509. The rest of the team produced 3 points from 15 shots with a weighting of -3.269.

As stated above some of those negative returns are from goal mouth scrambles but not all of it – come the Summer they will need a more even shooting performance throughout the team.

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
C O’Neill (Cork) 2 2 100% +0.613
B Hurley (Cork) 2 2 100% +0.514
N Morgan (Tyrone) 4 2 50% -0.387
D McCurry (Tyrone) 3 2 67% -0.667
K Coney (Tyrone) 2 1 50% +0.160
C McAlliskey (Tyrone) 1 1 100% +0.428
R O’Neill (Tyrone) 1 1 100% +0.087
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ) 7.3 4.9 66.7%

Nothing earth shattering here except for the fact that McCurry may have “free kick miss of the season” wrapped up already. Inside the 21m line, in line with the right hand post and he curls it outside the left hand post. As complacent a kick as you’ll see.

The other noteworthy point here is that Tyrone had five different players have an attempt at goal from deadballs – and none of them were Séan Cavanagh who produced the dead ball display of the ’13 Championship against Meath.

Kickouts
Very similar returns in terms of possessions won. 51 kickouts in total with Cork winning possession on 25 of them (51%) and Tyrone 24 (49%).

They each won possession on 8 of the opposition’s kickouts (Cork has 25, Tyrone 24 – very similar) with only one of those 16 wins not ending up as a shot.

The main difference was then the conversion of possessions won to shots on their own kickouts. Cork won 68% of their own kickouts (17 out of 25) and managed a shot on 65% of these (11 from 17). Tyrone won 67% of their own kickouts (16 out of 24) but only managed a shot from 44% of these (7 from 16).

So – all very similar on the possession won front with Cork slightly better at producing a shot from their own kickout than Tyrone were.

Players with >= 2 shots from play
A note on Kyle Coney’s performance. Hitting 8 scores from 9 shots is phenomenal and a weighting just short of +4.0 is the best individual performance I can find in a database closing in on 100 games. It was truly wonderful to watch and perhaps the most remarkable thing may be that only 2 of those shots came from inside the 21m line – there were no gimmes

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
K Coney (Tyrone) 9 8 89% +3.946
J Hayes (Cork) 5 2 40% -0.682
B Hurley (Cork) 4 3 70% +0.935
D McCurry (Tyrone) 4 2 50% +0.563
S Cavanagh (Tyrone) 4 1 25% -0.625
J Goold (Cork) 4 0 0% -1.576
J O’Rourke (Cork) 3 2 67% +0.874
C O’Neill (Cork) 2 1 50% 0.234
M Penrose (Tyrone) 2 1 50% +0.176
P Kerrigan (Cork) 2 1 50% +0.094
C Cavanagh (Tyrone) 2 0 0% -0.767
M Collins (Cork) 2 0 0% -1.134
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