Mayo V Kerry 2014 League

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Mayo 38 29 76% 17 59% 1.624
Kerry 32 25 78% 14 56% 0.737
Champ (’12 & ’13 avg) 35.8 27.6 77.2% 14.1 51.0%

Similar shaped returns from both teams, with above average Shot & Success Rates, however Mayo’s weight of attacks, and their more clinical nature in front of goal, saw them run out comfortable winners in the end.

For all their fine footballers it is hard to see how Kerry can win too many games, without Cooper to up their Success Rate, when they spot a top quality team an extra 6 (19%) attacking possessions.

Having said that Mayo were a point down when Keane blasted a glorious goal chance straight at Hennelly. Convert that and Kerry’s momentum and belief would have risen and the result could have been very different. As it was Maher hit a terrible wide with the outside of his foot from the rebound and Mayo went on to turn the screw having a shot from the next six possessions scoring 0-04 from frees.

Shots from Play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Mayo 17 9 53% 1.059
Kerry 19 10 53% 0.931
Champ avgs (’12 & ’13) 20.3 9.2 45.4%

Not enough shots from play – which is a function of the high level of shots from frees (see below) – but what shots were taken showed a return well above average.

From a Mayo perspective there may be two areas of slight concern coming out of the game. The first being that Gallagher didn’t get a shot from play in his time on the pitch; Andy Moran didn’t manage one from centre forward either but that is less of a concern given his production previously. In their quest to add firepower for the Summer Gallagher seems in pole position for a role – though young they could do with him chipping in. The second would be Kerry’s goal threat. Although the goal they let in was a screamer from O’Brien, Barry John Keane got through the centre very easily for a poor shot straight at Hennelly whilst Casey also hit the crossbar. Keane was a foot away from getting behind the defence from a long pass in the first half as well.

Kerry didn’t do a lot wrong with what ball they had – they just didn’t have enough ball.

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
R Hennelly (Mayo) 4 0 0% -2.193
K McLoughlin (Mayo) 3 3 100% 1.138
A Freeman (Mayo) 3 3 1000% 1.033
A Gallagher (Mayo) 2 2 100% +0.588
C Cox (Kerry) 4 3 75% +0.267
J O’Donoghue (Kerry) 2 1 50% -0.461
team avgs (’12 & ’13 Champ) 7.3 4.9 66.7%

There were quite a number of score able frees in the game. It is still early in the black card development but 18 shots at goal, with 17 frees, is a tad above pre Black card pace.

Rob Hennelly had a very poor day and Freeman nailing the long-range free from outside the 45m when Hennelly had started to trot up was indicative of how poor he was. It was not quite Morgan-esq from last year’s Donegal-Tyrone game but it wasn’t far off.

The other Mayo free takers were exemplary combining for 8 from 8 with the aforementioned Freeman point being the pick of the bunch. McLoughlin’s free taking from the left will need to maintain these high levels come the summer.

Mayo only gave away two shots at goal from frees in the Kildare game and again in a game littered with free scoring opportunities gave away substantially less than their opponent. As ever with Kerry’s free taking (outside of Cooper) it was much of a muchness – O’Donoghue’s miss in the second half being quite bad.

Kickouts
A curate’s egg of a performance … both teams did measurably better on the opposition’s kickout. This is a function of the type of kickout that both teams employed – there were only four short kickouts in the entire game.

We have seen from last year’s Championship that kicking long makes the possession much more uncertain. When both teams forego kicking short then every kickout becomes a contest – and the result is a wash.

We have seen two of Mayo’s three games and contrary to last year’s performances they are going short on very few occasions – 4 in total from 53 kickouts or 8% of the time. They went short 38% of the time in the Championship last year.

I can’t imagine this is a long-term change in tactics given that kicking short was more successful for them last year.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Freeman was very good; both from play and deadballs, but no one took the game by the scruff of the neck. Doherty scored 1-01 and also set up Freeman’s goal.

O’Brien and O’Donoghue were the pick of the bunch for Kerry

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
A Freeman (Mayo) 4 3 75% 1.309
B Keane (Kerry) 4 2 50% 0.179
S O’Brien (Kerry) 3 3 100% 0.875
J O’Donoghue (Kerry) 3 2 67% +0.783
M Conroy (Mayo) 3 1 33% -0.566
J Doherty (Mayo) 2 2 100% 1.094
E Varley (Mayo) 2 1 50% +0.215
C Cox (Kerry) 2 1 50% 0.085
L Keegan (Mayo) 2 1 50% -0.207
D Casey (Kerry) 2 0 0% -0.776
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