Derry V Down 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here


Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Derry 42 32 76% 17 53% +2.3639
Down 46 33 72% 19 58% +3.7934
2012 avg 35.28 27.02 76.6% 13.96 51.67%

A very open game with high volume returns for the main attacking metrics. Derry’s Shot & Success Rates were in line with the average; to return as high a weighting as they did shows that the shots they took were more difficult than would normally be expected.

Down’s shooting overall was excellent with a high Success Rate and a high weighting. If they were going to be harsh in their analysis, after an excellent victory, then they may be concerned with their Shot Rate, especially with Donegal on the horizon. For all the possession they had they really should have managed to get another 2 or 3 shots off.

Down will not have as much possession the next day and a similar low Shot Rate will inevitably feed into a low score.

Shots from play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Derry 24 15 63% +5.142
Down 31 17 55% +2.899
2012 avg 20.14 9.36 46.47%

Derry’s shooting from play was scintillating. That performance is as good as we are likely to see in the Championship. Between them Eoin Bradley & James Kielt scored 0-08 from 11 shots (73% return with a combined weighting of +3.418) however Bradley’s hidden value was immense. He was involved in all 3 of Derry’s shots for goal; taking one and setting up the other two – including Lynch’s goal; he was fouled for two of the four frees Derry took a shot from and also “won” two of Derry’s three 45s. He was immense.

The issue with Derry however was the Jeckyll & Hyde nature of their shooting strategy (see shot chart below). In the first half they took 14 shots from play with 9 (64%) coming from Sectors 5 & 8, the two most productive sectors. In the second half only one of their 10 shots from play came from these sectors. Their second half returns were still about above but they moved away (or were moved depending on your viewpoint) from what got them the lead at half time.

Team Half Shots Scores Weighting
Derry 1st 14 10 +3.764
2nd 10 5 +1.378
Down 1st 15 8 +1.448
2nd 16 9 +1.452

Although overshadowed by Derry’s returns Down’s shooting was also very good. On top of being more consistent, with both halves being quite similar, they were also a lot more clinical. Down had 3 shots at goal and only the base of the post stopped them converting all 3.

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
O’Hare (Down) 2 2 100% +0.894
Heron (Derry) 3 1 33% -0.28
Bell (Derry) 2 0 0% -1.667
J Kielt (Derry) 1 1 100% +0.452
Lynch (Derry) 1 0 0% -0.558
E Bradley (Derry) 1 0 0% -0.726
2012 team avgs 6.88 4.6 66.9%

Both teams did very well to only concede five frees between them within scoreable range.

Derry, and Bell in particular, are slightly hard done by here. Due to the fact that the volumes of shots from sidelines is so low we cannot give them an accurate weighting (yet!). As such they are considered free kicks – and Bell gets crucified for missing two free kicks in Sector 9 rather than one of them being a sideline.

Shot Charts
You can see how Derry’s shooting changed after half time. Their first half shots from play are in white whilst the second half are in black. They obviously have great strikers of the ball, as shown by their returns in this game, but too many times it was the wrong player (P Bradley, Quinn, O’kane) taking the shots from the wrong sections.

Derry’s shooting

Derry shooting

Down’s shooting

Down shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

The normal kickout data is included above but perhaps of more interest was what was happening on Down’s kickouts. Derry ‘let’ Down have the short kickout which, as discussed in the Dublin-Westmeath game, is a strategy that has merit. However on the first 7 kickouts that Down took (all short) they managed to get a shot from each and bagged 0-04 points.

Down Won Shots Scores
First 7 short 7/7 7 4
Remainder short 6/7 4 3
Mid/Long 7/9 2 1

The strategy itself is fine but what were Derry doing? If they were dropping back from Down’s kickouts where was the pressure when Down crossed the half way line. To implement this strategy is fine but you must follow up by blocking the route to shooting in your 45.

When Down did go long Derry were much more effective at stopping the shot coming. After witnessing the outcome of those first 7 short kickouts the Derry management really should have sold out and stopped anymore short kickouts.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
McKernan (Down) 7 4 57% +0.823
E Bradley (Derry) 6 4 67% +1.294
J Kielt (Derry) 5 4 80% +2.124
Poland (Down) 5 3 60% +0.837
Madine (Down) 5 3 60% +0.616
O’Hare (Down) 4 3 75% +1.038
Lynch (Derry) 2 2 100% +1.286
Lynn (Derry) 2 2 100% +1.168
McCallion (Derry) 2 0 0% -0.645
Heron (Derry) 2 1 50% +0.239
O’Kane (Derry) 2 0 0% -0.842
Quinn (Down) 2 0 0% -0.842
Laverty (Down) 2 0 0% -0.866

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