Donegal V Tyrone 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Donegal 29 18 62% 12 67% +2.3886
Tyrone 37 29 78% 10 34% -3.206
2012 avg 35.28 27.02 76.6% 13.96 51.67%

Tyrone managed to get more possessions, and shots, than Donegal but their execution was very poor. That poor Success Rate of 34% will be laid squarely at Niall Morgan’s door but even without him Tyrone would still have recorded a very poor Success Rate of 39%.

Part of this is due to where Tyrone took their shots from (see shot chart below). Only 2 of Tyrone’s entire 29 shots came from Sector 5. This is yet again further evidence of Donegal’s immense discipline in defence. They did not give away one free from Sector 5 in the entire 70 minutes and forced Tyrone outside to shoot.

Donegal’s shooting, when they did shoot, was immense. Whilst we have praised their discipline in defence, their discipline up front is also noteworthy. Rarely is a bad shot taken. They recycle possession until the right man is in the right position to make the shot worthwhile. If you are going to play this waiting game then you need a very high Success Rate, alloyed to a winner’s instinct as to when to go for goal. Donegal had both in spades with a 67% Success Rate and scoring two goals from three chances.

As an aside this game was eerily similar to 2012 (see here). Donegal with much lower possession numbers but higher Success Rates. Tyrone with poor shooting & a crippling deadball performance. Who says lightning doesn’t strike twice?

Shots from play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Donegal 12 8 67% +1.7485
Tyrone 19 8 42% +0.2792
2012 avg 20.14 9.36 46.47%

Both teams managed 8 scores from play but the difference in the two teams Success Rates can be explained in the detail of who took their shots.

Donegal’s front 3 of McBrearty, Murphy & McFadden took 75% (9 of 12) of their shots scoring 1-04. The other three shots were all scores from different players – highlighting once again the deadly accuracy of Donegal’s supporting cast. Tyrone’s main trio of O’Neill, S Cavanagh & Mattie Donnelly took 39% (7 from 18) of their shots scoring 0-04. But the supporting cast only managed a Success Rate of 36% (4 from 11) … they had they bulk of the shots but couldn’t find the target anywhere near as successfully as Donegal’s supporting cast could.

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
C McFadden (Donegal) 3 2 67% +0.358
M Murphy (Donegal) 3 2 67% +0.284
N Morgan (Tyrone) 6 1 17% -1.699
S Cavanagh (Tyrone) 3 1 33% -1.06
S O’Neill (Tyrone) 1 0 0% -.726
2012 team avgs 6.88 4.6 66.9%

Much has been made of Morgan’s bad day at the office. It was indeed bad but it wasn’t terrible. We have seen players return a weighting of -3 in the past and this was nowhere near that. Why not? Because the weighting compares a performance against what an average player would return.

When people are comparing Morgan’s outing they are doing so against his excellent performance against Dublin. Realistically though that was unsustainable. In the 3 games charted outside of the League Final Morgan had a success rate of 44% (4 from 9). On average he could have been expected to score 2 maybe 3 of those 6 attempts.

Of course what cannot be measured is the effect each miss had on Tyrone as a whole. This was their new weapon, their game changer from last year. Except it misfired.

Donegal’s shooting

Donegal shooting

Tyrone’s shooting

Tyrone shooting

x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, white = play

Kickouts

Kickouts

A note of caution on these returns. Normally RTE are excellent in timing their replays so that very little of the live play is missed. For some reason they were late to a number of kickouts in this game – so much so that I wasn’t able to track 3 of them (all Tyrone) and I inferred what happened on a few more (i.e. camera cuts back from replay to show a player bursting through a scrum with the ball).

Tyrone did quite well in this facet of the game. They broke even in terms of kickouts won but were much more efficient at getting shots from the subsequent possession. This makes sense, as Donegal mind the possession they have much more, but it is still a very good return given how well Donegal’s midfield played last year.

Donegal, surprisingly given the way the kickout is evolving, did not take one short kickout and hit 86% long (past the 45m line) despite losing the majority. They simply eliminated the risk of a turnover in their own half.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Mattie Donnelly (Tyrone) 4 2 50% +0.316
C McFadden (Donegal) 3 2 67% +0.838
P McBrearty (Donegal) 3 2 67% +0.285
M Murphy (Donegal) 3 1 33% -0.565
Justin McMahon (Tyrone) 2 1 50% +0.355
C Cavanagh (Tyrone) 2 1 50% +0.218
S O’Neill (Tyrone) 2 1 50% +0.103
Joe McMahon (Tyrone) 2 0 0% -0.701
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3 Responses to “Donegal V Tyrone 2013”

  1. Kerry v Mayo 2014 Championship | dontfoul Says:

    […] a ridiculous 71% of shots. The best Success Rate recorded to date is Donegal’s 67% against Tyrone in 2013. Although the 71% is only for one half producing that quality and accuracy, whilst down to […]

  2. Kerry v Mayo Replay 2014 Championship | dontfoul Says:

    […] could do this – the record prior to this game was their own 67% Success Rate compiled against Tyrone in their opening encounter last […]

  3. Donegal V Tyrone 2015 Ulster Championship | dontfoul Says:

    […] shooting and efficiency that saw them through. Sound familiar? Below are the returns from the 2013 game. Eerily similar. The faces may change (Joe McMahon, Stephen O’Neill, Rory Kavanagh, Leo McLoone, […]

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