Cavan V Armagh 2013

For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here

Overall

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Weighting
Cavan 34 32 94% 16 50% -0.3958
Armagh 40 29 73% 12 41% -2.167
2012 avg 35.28 27.02 76.6% 13.96 51.67%

What has been a recurring theme in the commentary on this game, and will be laced throughout this piece, is Armagh’s defensive tactics. The effect of this can be seen in a number of areas and none more so than in Cavan’s 94% shot rate.

In all bar two occasions when Cavan got the ball into Armagh’s 45 they got a shot off. This is phenomenal and an indicator of the lack of pressure the Cavan forwards were under. They were rarely tackled by multiple defenders nor forced to spray the ball back and forth across the line looking for a gap. Armagh left lots of space; the ball was played into it, gathered and a shot taken. Cavan’s slightly below average weighting shows that, Dunne apart, their execution left a lot to be desired.

Armagh did have their chances, with above average possession and shots, but their execution let them down.

Shots from play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
Cavan 27 14 52% +0.9291
Armagh 23 7 30% -2.033
2012 avg 20.14 9.36 46.47%

Dunne and Keating had 19 shots from play between them scoring 10 points. Dunne was a lot more efficient (73% Success Rate (8/11) & Weighting of +2.41) than Keating (25% (2/8) weighting of -1.87) however the supply to both really had to be shut down.

Armagh’s shooting from play was very poor. Cavan marked Clarke out of it ensuring he only had one effort, apart from the ghost goal, which was knocked out of his hands. Unfortunately for Armagh none of his teammates stood up to take his place

Shots from deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
M Dunne (Cavan) 3 1 33% -0.961
N McDermott (Cavan) 1 1 100% +0.159
C Gilsenan (Cavan) 1 0 0% -0.519
S Forker (Armagh) 3 2 67% -0.611
A Kernan (Armagh) 2 2 100% +0.310
T Kernan (Armagh) 1 1 100% +0.167
2012 team avgs 6.88 4.6 66.9%

Apart from Tony Kernan’s wonderful sideline point there was nothing of note here – except perhaps Dunne missing two very easy frees in the first half.

Shot charts
Look at how close to goal all of Cavan’s shots are. Armagh’s man marking ensured that there was no “press” on the ball – Cavan could just get the ball in, turn and shoot.

Armagh, for all their failings, got the ball into the right area. They missed 6 shots from play from in and around Sector 5 – take the average from this sector and they are right there.

It is quite instructive to compare the two shot charts here with Mayo’s against Galway (here) and compare the accuracy from in front of the posts.

Cavan’s shooting

Cavan shooting

Armagh’s shooting

Armagh shooting

x = missed, disc = score, red = free/sideline, white = play, yellow = 45

Kickouts

Cavan-Armagh kickouts

Armagh had a +9 differential on winning kickouts but only turned this into a +3 differential in terms of shots. This was due, in the main, to Cavan’s excellent shot rate – every kickout they turned into a possession also became a shot.

Although on the surface a -3 differential on shots from kickouts won is not a bad days work this will be an area of concern for Cavan. They will surely not meet a defence as accommodating again. If they continue to win just 40% of kickouts we can expect the conversion to possessions, and then shots, to drop. Were this to happen it would provide a huge platform for their opponents.

Players with >= 2 shots from play
Eugene Keating had a bad day but he was stellar against Donegal last year (here). I think it is safe to assume that both he and Dunne will regress to the mean – if this does happen then Cavan will be looking for more production from the rest of the team.

Shots Scores Success Rate Weighting
M Dunne (Cavan) 11 8 73% +2.407
E Keating (Cavan) 8 2 25% -1.869
S Forker (Armagh) 4 2 50% +0.606
T Kernan (Armagh) 4 1 25% -0.358
E Rafferty (Armagh) 3 1 33% -0.135
M Shields (Armagh) 3 1 33% -0.177
N McDermott (Cavan) 3 1 33% -0.382
C Rafferty (Armagh) 2 1 50% +0.215
K Dyas (Armagh) 2 0 0% -0.926
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