Kildare V Tyrone 2013 League

In what was again an open game at Croke Park the difference between the teams was their ability to convert their chances.

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Return Vs Expected
Kildare 39 33 85% 14 42% -2.281
Tyrone 42 29 69% 16 55% +2.694
2012 avg 35.28 27.02 76.6% 13.96 51.67%

Kildare can take a lot of positives from this game. They started 6 U21s yet managed to have a shot rate of 85%. Normally such a high percentage is associated with very deliberate teams who patiently hold on to the ball waiting for the most advantageous opportunity before shooting. That wasn’t Kildare in this game. Instead they pulled the trigger whenever the opportunity arose. We’ll have more on their accuracy later!

What is a positive for one team is almost by nature a negative for the opposition. Tyrone will be concerned at just how many shots Kildare got off. Kildare got 5 shots at goal and, of the 21 shots Kildare took from play for a point, only 57% were under any sort of pressure from a Tyrone player.

Tyrone’s shooting from play was sublime (see table below) highlighted by Stephen O’Neill’s contribution. He had 4 shots, converted all 4, and also gave the hand pass that sprung Tyrone for the first goal. Their only concern, and a point of positive emphasis for Kildare, will be that they got so few shots from so much possession. You would have to think there will be a lot less space against Donegal thus they’ll have to up that shot rate from 69%.

FROM PLAY

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
Kildare 26 10 38% -1.446
Tyrone 21 12 57% +3.0835
2012 avg 20.14 9.36 46.47%

We have already highlighted Stephen O’Neill but the two Donnelly’s also had excellent shooting days; Mattie hit 3 out of 4 shots (Expected Return of +1.208) whilst Mark hit 2 from 2 (Expected Return of +1.178).

The only blot on Tyrone’s day would be how quiet Séan Cavanagh was (2 shots, neither converted) however he did win three frees that turned into shots.

The last time we saw Kildare (Vs Kerry; report here) the shooting burden resided on Johnston’s shoulders. Against Tyrone John Doyle took over. The below table shows his day’s work

John Doyle’s day

Shot Type Shots Scores Vs Expected
Frees 6 4 -0.2771
Play 7 2 -0.8528

Whilst it is almost unfair to highlight a player who has taken a team on his back countless times Doyle’s shooting, at times from poor angles whilst under pressure, let a lot of Kildare’s good approach work down. We saw with Cillian O’Connor that good players bounce back from a bad performance; Kildare will need Doyle to do so.

FROM DEADBALLS

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
N Morgan (Tyrone) 4 1 25% -1.064
S Cavanagh (Tyrone) 3 2 67% +0.2223
D McCurry (Tyrone) 1 1 100% +0.4519
J Doyle (Kildare) 6 4 67% -0.2771
E O’Flaherty (Kildare) 1 0 0% -0.558
team avgs 6.88 4.60 66.9%

We have already discussed Doyle’s poor day at the office. Negative returns are not a new phenomenon for Kildare; they only hit 40% (2 from 5; Expected Return of -0.733) against Kerry and 33% (4 from 12; Expected Return of -2.65) against Cork in last year’s All Ireland quarter-final. They have tried numerous players on free taking duty but just cannot find the consistency of the top teams.

Tyrone were fine though they appear to be stretching Morgan to the limit of his very powerful leg. Some of the frees he took were monsters and he may be losing accuracy in an attempt to get distance.

KICKOUTS
Kildare kickouts

Team Won % Turned into Attack % Turned into Shot %
Kildare 15 60% 11 73% 7 47%
Tyrone 10 40% 8 80% 8 80%

Tyrone kickouts

Team Won % Turned into Attack % Turned into Shot %
Kildare 7 28% 5 71% 4 57%
Tyrone 18 72% 8 44% 7 39%

The last time we saw Kildare on the TV they were destroyed by a marauding Dublin team. They gave Dublin possession on their kickouts whilst being penned back on their own kickouts. Prior to that they had managed to hold their own against a strong Kerry team using Brian Flanagan under the majority of breaking balls.

Since then Flanagan has gotten injured whilst they have changed goalkeeper. The net result – they managed to do well, in a possession sense, from their own kickouts (winning 60%) but were still very poor at defending their own kickouts that Tyrone won (Tyrone got 80% of shots from Kildare kickouts they won).

Tyrone destroyed Kildare on their kickouts (winning 72%) however whether it was poor distribution from Tyrone, or good defensive work from Kildare, Tyrone were poor at converting that strength into shots.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
J Doyle (Kildare) 7 2 29% -0.8528
P O’Neill (Kildare) 5 3 60% +0.9048
Stephen O’Neill (Tyrone) 4 4 100% +2.3414
Mattie Donnelly (Tyrone) 4 3 75% +1.2079
P Brophy (Kildare) 4 2 50% +0.3374
C McAlliskey (Tyrone) 3 2 67% +0.4232
M Penrose (Tyrone) 3 1 33% -0.1464
P Cribben (Kildare) 3 1 33% -0.4244
Mark Donnelly (Tyrone) 2 2 100% +1.178
E O’Flaherty (Kildare) 2 1 67% +0.1105
S Cavanagh (Tyrone) 2 0 0% -0.862
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One Response to “Kildare V Tyrone 2013 League”

  1. LiveGaelic.com The Proper Punter - U21 Semi-finals » LiveGaelic.com Says:

    […] & 1/2 or so is up for debate, but looking at the stats, particularly from the always excellent Dontfoul blog we can see that on the expected return from chances created there was pretty much the exact […]

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