Dublin V Mayo 2013 League

Possession stats like these, whilst well above the 2012 Championship average, are not unknown. In the 2010 Championship Dublin were involved in 5 separate games with 87 or greater possessions; the drop off in possessions from 2010 to 2012 is discussed more in-depth here.

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Return Vs Expected
Dublin 46 36 78% 18 50% +0.9649
Mayo 40 31 78% 16 52% -0.6853
2012 avg 35.28 27.02 76.6% 13.96 51.67%

What is unusual, and led to the relatively high scoring in the game, is that both teams maintained average shooting & success rates. They both had a lot more possession but as a result of keeping their averages up got more shots off and thus more scores.

FROM PLAY

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
Dublin 32 15 47% +0.7277
Mayo 21 8 38% -1.055
2012 avg 20.14 9.36 46.47%

There is a bit more of a discrepancy here. There is an interdependency between how many shots from play you take and your opposition’s willingness/ability to foul you. Mayo only got 21 shots from play (which is still average) because they also received 10 free kicks within shooting range.

We know from the semi final last year (here) that Mayo are quite willing to bring a man down if necessary. They didn’t do it here (Dublin only got 4 frees within shooting range). Was this because they were off the pace and unable to foul Dublin – given the fact that Dublin got 32 shots they had plenty of opportunity – or was it that their intensity, for whatever reason, was a notch below Dublin’s?

I charted Mayo getting pressure on 66% (21/32) of Dublin’s shots from play. Dublin got pressure on 71% of Mayo’s (15/21). A difference yes but in a vacuum not one you could point to as empirical evidence that Mayo weren’t showing the required intensity. I can understand why Dublin fouled so frequently given that they were protecting against goals; I’m just not sure why Mayo didn’t do it to slow up a rampaging Dublin.

FROM DEADBALLS

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
B Brogan (Dublin) 2 1 50% -0.666
P Mannion (Dublin) 1 1 100% +0.4519
S Cluxton (Dublin) 1 1 100% +0.4519
C O’Connor (Mayo) 9 7 78% +0.2152
K McLoughlin (Mayo) 1 1 100% +0.1548
team avgs 6.88 4.60 66.9%

After highlighting Cillian O’Connor relatively poor game (here) last week it is only fair we highlight that he had a good game yesterday. His Return Vs Average on frees wasn’t great because the majority of them were in the gettable range; he also missed an easy enough one at the start of the 2nd half from Sector 5. His only other miss from a free was one taken from outside the 45.

KICKOUTS

Team Won % Turned into Attack % Turned into Shot %
Dublin 29 57% 24 83% 20 69%
Mayo 22 43% 17 77% 13 59%

Mayo are known to have a strong midfield however we saw last week that with a judicious use of short kickouts Cork were able to keep their own kickouts away from Mayo ((here) – Mayo only ‘won’ 5 of Cork’s 21 kickouts).

Dublin did something very similar. On their own kickouts Dublin secured possession on 74% of them (17 out of 23). As is their wont with Cluxton at the helm they only hit 1 kickout long (past the 65m) and by pin pointing mid range & short kickouts kept the ball away from Mayo.

Whilst it may have caught Mayo by surprise against Cork they really should have been prepared against Dublin. In last year’s semi final they appeared to have Dublin’s kick outs keyed with Cluxton flummoxed more than once but in this game, despite knowing what Dublin wanted to do, they allowed Dublin to get shots from 71% of their kickouts (12 shots from 17 kickouts won)

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
P Mannion (Dublin) 8 4 50% +0.2398
B Brogan (Dublin) 6 4 67% +1.4725
P Andrews (Dublin) 5 0 0% -2.004
M Conroy (Mayo) 5 3 60% +0.5031
D Connolly (Dublin) 3 3 100% +1.8339
D Vaughan (Mayo) 3 0 0% -1.164
L Keegan (Mayo) 3 0 0% -1.253
A O’Shea (Cork) 2 2 100% +1.2685
J Whelan (Dublin) 2 2 100% +1.1105
C O’Connor (Mayo) 2 1 50% +0.2449
C Carolan (Mayo) 2 1 50% +0.138
J McCaffrey (Dublin) 2 1 50% +0.0036
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