Kildare V Kerry 2013 League

Unfortunately I am not an Irish speaker but even I could sense the TG4 commentator’s exasperation at both team’s shooting in Newbridge on Sunday. The table below confirms that it was well merited.

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Return Vs Expected
Kildare 33 25 76% 10 40% -3.169
Kerry 42 33 79% 12 36% -5.181
2012 avg 35.28 27.02 76.6% 13.96 51.67%

Kerry will be happy that they got their possession , and shots from possession, stats back up to average after two very poor weeks (see here). They can expect that with the likes of Cooper, Galvin, Declan O’Sullivan & a fully fit Darren O’Sullivan that their shooting will take care of itself once they hit the hard ground of June.

Despite their win I would imagine Kildare will be less content. The last time we saw them here on the blog Cork’s man mountains destroyed them through the middle with their power running game. That didn’t happen so much here but Kildare still struggled for parity on the ball and it was particularly noticeable how they struggled late on once the “big man” (Buckley) started to dominate.

Whilst acknowledging it is still only early March Kildare will need to do better on their shot selection. McGeeney has always encouraged his players to “take the shot” but those players for whom this does not come naturally will have to up their game in this department. 6 Kildare players took 1 shot each … only two, Brophy & Kelly, converted.

From play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
Kildare 20 8 40% -2.436
Kerry 24 7 29% -3.672
2012 avg 20.14 9.36 46.47%

From deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
J Doyle (Kildare) 4 2 50% -0.2331
M Conway (Kildare) 1 0 0% -0.5
J O’Donoghue (Kerry) 6 3 50% -1.457
J Buckley (Kerry) 3 2 67% -0.0518
team avgs 6.88 4.60 66.9%

Both teams were not afraid to pull the trigger from play (a shift in gears for Kerry compared to the first two rounds of the league) however the accuracy was well below the expected 47%.

O’Donoghue had a poor return from frees and this continues a worrying trend for Kerry. In the three games to date they have only hit 50% (8 from 16) with an Expected Return of -2.813. In last year’s Championship, even with Cooper & Sheehan hitting the majority of deadballs, they only hit 58% with a combined Expected Return of -3.0928.

Compare that to the deadly accuracy from Donegal last year. Whilst this may only be the league, and there’s no reason for panic, a worrying trend is developing.

On a side note John Doyle’s penalty was the first one I’ve charted as saved in well over 60 games ….

KICKOUTS

Team Won % Turned into Attack % Turned into Shot %
Kildare 19 40% 13 68% 11 58%
Kerry 29 60% 16 55% 12 41%

Given Kerry’s relative dominance of kickouts (58% v Mayo off 36 kickouts; 56% v Dublin off 32) in the two previous games I was interested to see how Kildare, with a smaller mid 8, would approach this segment of the game.

Overall I imagine Kildare will be fairly content. They are in the same vicinity, possession wise, as perceived better teams in Mayo & Dublin. Kerry won 71% possession on their own kickouts which is bang in line with the two previous games. Kildare were ahead in the possession stakes on their own kickouts until the final 15 minutes when Kerry won 4 in a row.

Incidentally those 4 came at a time when Kildare went away from the strategy that had served them so well up to that point. Kildare had two pods; Morgan O’Flaherty standing under Daniel Flynn to pick up breaking ball and Brian Flanagan under Padraig O’Neill. The majority of kickouts went to the vicinity Flanagan was in (I made it 17 of the 24 Kildare kickouts that Flanagan was on the pitch for) and he was excellent at getting his hands on the dirty ball. Of the 4 we mentioned earlier none of them wen t to the O’Neill/Flanagan combo.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
S Johnston (Kildare) 8 4 50% -0.0635
J Lyne (Kerry) 4 2 50% +0.4718
J Buckley (Kerry) 3 2 67% +0.6398
J Doyle (Kildare) 3 1 33% -0.2099
J O’Donoghue (Kerry) 3 1 67% -0.4424
E Bolton (Kildare) 3 1 67% -0.5307
E Brosnan (Kerry) 3 0 0% -1.213
T O’Sé (Kerry) 2 1 50% +0.2724
BJ Keane (Kerry) 2 0 0% -0.9289
D Walsh (Kerry) 2 0 0% -1.339
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2 Responses to “Kildare V Kerry 2013 League”

  1. Daragh Says:

    Excellent – particularly the breakdown of the breaking ball. Brendan Coffey did something on Flanagan earlier in the year – he’s been colossal. I remember seeing Kildare working on this in training in 2009 and it’s a big part of their game. If they don’t win breaks, they’re in big trouble but they tend to win more than their share

  2. Kildare V Tyrone 2013 League | dontfoul Says:

    […] last time we saw Kildare (Vs Kerry; report here) the shooting burden resided on Johnston’s shoulders. Against Tyrone John Doyle took over. The […]

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