Kerry V Dublin 2013 League

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Return Vs Expected
Kerry 21 11 52% 4 36% -1.671
Dublin 35 27 77% 12 44% -2.668
2012 avg 35.28 27.02 76.6% 13.96 51.67%

Well. There’s a few things to take from this
–> The first and most obvious is that shooting accuracy isn’t the be all and end all. It is hugely important but is only a distinguisher where the volume of shots, and where the shots are taken from, are of roughly equal value. A brilliant expected return on 2 shots will never beat an average return on 10 shots.

–> Dublin’s shooting variance is still evident.

–>Kerry were very poor in only securing 21 possessions (2012 average was 35). Given the paucity of possession they were almost criminal in only converting 11 into a shot

From play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
Kerry 9 2 22% -2.29
Dublin 20 8 40% -1.125
2012 avg 20.14 9.36 46.47%

The two O’Donoghues had 5 shots with none of them converted – 3 of them were inside the 21m line.

14 of Dublin’s 20 shots came from Brogan & Andrews with a combined Expected Return of c.+0.3. The problem came from the supporting cast with Craig Dias’ goal being the only chance converted from 6 shots.

From deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
B Brogan (Dublin) 5 3 60% -1.336
J O’Donoghue (Kerry) 1 1 100% +0.4519
P Ryan (Dublin) 1 1 100% +0.2742
M O’Donoghue (Kerry) 1 1 100% +0.1667
S Cluxton (Dublin) 1 0 0% -0.4808
team avgs 6.88 4.60 66.9%

The one positive for Kerry was that their free kicks improved (see the previous game’s returns here). The problem was the volume of deadballs. On average a shot from a deadball comes every 5.1 possessions. You can attribute Kerry’s relative lack of same (1 every 9.5 possessions) as either good defending from Dublin or a lack of penetration from the Kerry forwards. Given all the other metrics I’ll go with the latter.

KICKOUTS
Dublin were very efficient on the kickouts they won. They converted 64% of into shots whereas Kerry only converted 28% into a shot.

This is a classic case of what I’m hoping these kickout stats will show. Namely under existing headings Kerry won the kickout battle (18-14) yet only ended up with 5 shots from their 18 possessions; Dublin had 9 from 14. Did Kerry still win the kickout battle?

Team Won % Turned into Attack % Turned into Shot %
Kerry 18 56% 9 50% 5 28%
Dublin 14 44% 11 79% 9 64%

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
B Brogan (Dublin) 8 4 50% +0.445
P Andrews (Dublin) 6 3 50% -0.1543
J O’Donoghue (Kerry) 3 0 0% -1.36
P Curtin (Kerry) 2 1 50% +0.1814
C Dias (Dublin) 2 1 50% +0.1105
M O’Donoghue (Kerry) 2 0 0% -1.033
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One Response to “Kerry V Dublin 2013 League”

  1. Kildare V Kerry 2013 League | dontfoul Says:

    […] Shining a light onto GAA stats « Kerry V Dublin 2013 League […]

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