Mayo V Dublin

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Return Vs Expected
Mayo 36 29 81% 20 69% +5.07
Dublin 41 32 78% 16 50% -2.00
avg 38.5 27.6 71.7% 13.9 50.4% 0.00

That is an excellent set of returns from Mayo with both their striking from the ground and their shooting from play returning well above average returns

A lot of the focus has been on Mayo’s 20 minute ‘collapse’ in the 2nd half. Dublin did have 10 of 11 possessions in a dominant spell, resulting in 10 shots and 7 points, however if we look at the 2nd half as a whole Mayo’s offensive production was slightly above average.

1st Half

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Return Vs Expected
Mayo 18 17 94% 13 76% +4.63
Dublin 20 14 70% 6 43% -0.58

2nd Half

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Return Vs Expected
Mayo 18 12 67% 7 58% +0.44
Dublin 21 18 86% 10 56% -1.42

What Mayo did produce was a stellar first half that saw some excellent shooting with 76% of all shots ending in a score. For 30 minutes they played as well as any team recorded to date with every possession producing a shot.

From play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
Mayo 21 13 62% +3.53
Dublin 22 7 32% -2.70
avg 20.5 9.2 44.9% 0.00

As has been already noted Mayo’s shooting from play was excellent. Dillon, Varley & McLoughlin hit 7 points from 9 shots between them. It must be remembered that these returns include two woeful misses from the hand (from Varley in the 1st half & Conroy in the 2nd). Exclude these and Mayo were shooting the lights out.

Dublin had their chances. They had 1 more shot than Mayo from play but scored 6 less points with Kilkenny, Connolly & B Brogan not scoring from 11 shots between them. This is a well documented issue with the Dublin front 6 – when B Brogan is off form then no one has consistently stepped up to the plate. They were getting by up until this point but eventually ran into a team that made them pay.

Dublin players with >= 7 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
B Brogan 28 11 39% -3.07
D Connolly 17 7 41% -0.97
K McManamon 16 8 50% +0.16
P Flynn 13 6 46% +0.98
A Brogan 11 5 45% +0.17
E O’Gara 8 3 38% -0.60
B Cullen 7 4 57% +0.54

As stated this is not new. It was a similar issue in 2010. If one of Kilkenny, McManamon or Connolly (A Brogan is a wonderful puppeteer, spraying balls left, right & centre however he is not a good shooter) do not step forward and take the scoring weight off of B Brogan’s shoulders then Dublin will struggle to get over the line again.

From deadballs

Player Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
C O’Connor (Mayo) 7 6 86% +1.30
E Varley (Mayo) 1 1 100% +0.24
B Brogan (Dublin) 6 6 100% +0.91
S Cluxton (Dublin) 3 3 100% +0.73
K McManamon (Dublin) 1 0 0% -0.94
team avgs 7.2 4.8 66.2% 0.00

Prior to yesterday only 30% of 45s (11 from 36) were converted in 23 matches. In fact take Cluxton’s previous efforts out and this drops to a meagre 23%.

The ball striking from the ground in this game was superb with Cluxton & O’Connor hitting 6 from 6 on 45s. Even the 45 that Cluxton dropped short at the end was perfectly weighted to give the Dublin forwards a chance to get a fist on it.

The expected return doesn’t really do justice to this 45 success rates. I haven’t extracted returns from 45s out from other frees between the 21m & 45m line so they are treated as ‘normal’ frees. This is one obvious weakness of the database that will be rectified once I start making amendments after the season ends.

The free taking all round was excellent though the relative ease of Brogan’s frees can be judged from the fact that his expected return was lower than O’Connor’s even though O’Connor missed one shot.

McManamon’s return got hammered because he didn’t score from a free in front of goal (94% of these frees end in a score). There are just not enough instances of players going for goals from these positions to give them a different weighting than those frees that take a point.

Below are the returns for shots from play. A few notes
–> A Dillon now has a success rate of 88% (7 scores from 8 shots) between the QF & SF
–> C Kilkenny showed glimpses of what anyone watching underage football has seen over the past number of seasons. To have the courage to step up, in that atmosphere, and be the joint top shot taker is something else. To be able to back it up with scores must be very exciting for Dublin fans.
–> B Brogan is slightly hard done by in these returns. 3 of his 4 shots were shots at goal with 2 blocked and 1 saved. As well as hitting his 6 frees he also ‘earned’ 2 of Cluxton’s 45s & 2 of his own frees. He had a good game – he is just judged harsher than others due to the stellar play we know he can produce.
–> Similarly M Conroy had an excellent day though it doesn’t show up here. He won 3 frees that O’Connor took as shots (2 were converted) and was also responsible for 2 of O’Connor’s 45s

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
C Kilkenny (Dublin) 6 3 50% +0.35
D Connolly (Dublin) 6 2 33% -0.52
B Brogan (Dublin) 4 0 0% -2.11
A Dillon (Mayo) 4 3 75% +1.24
M Conroy (Mayo) 4 1 250% -0.71
E Varley (Mayo) 3 2 67% +0.81
P Flynn (Dublin) 3 2 67% +0.73
K McLoughlin (Mayo) 2 2 100% +1.14
J Doherty (Mayo) 2 1 50% +0.04
C O’Connor (Mayo) 2 1 50% -0.08

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One Response to “Mayo V Dublin”

  1. Dublin V Mayo 2013 League | dontfoul Says:

    […] know from the semi final last year (here) that Mayo are quite willing to bring a man down if necessary. They didn’t do it here (Dublin only […]

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