Donegal V Tyrone

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Return Vs Expected
Donegal 29 20 69% 12 60% +1.48
Tyrone 36 25 69% 10 40% -2.97
avg 38.5 27.6 71.7% 13.9 50.4% 0.00

I praised Tyrone’s compusure, decision making and accuracy in their game against Armagh. Looking at these numbers, and the fact that Armagh lost to Roscommon over the weekend, the initial reaction is to retract the credit given to Tyrone and assume it was Armagh’s man on man marking that gave the Tyrone forwards the freedom to score ‘at will’. When they met a ‘proper’ defence they wilted.

There are however two aspects to those negative Tyrone numbers. The first is that they missed four shots at goal; 1 was a brilliant save from Durcan that hit the post and could have gone anywhere; 1 was a shot off the crossbar from Stephen O’Neill and 2 were in a scramble in the small rectangle that led to a missed 45. Donegal’s scramble defence was good but on another day that’s two points, maybe a goal or two. Instead on Sunday it was four misses from straight in front of the goal.

The second involves Tyrone’s deadball efficiency. They only hit 37% of deadballs (3 from 8) compared to Donegal’s 86% (6 from 7 with the only miss being a sideline attempt from Murphy). Donegal’s defence can’t claim credit for such a poor return.

Donegal on the other hand came into this game having shown another side – opening up against Cavan & Derry and hitting 30 scores. Against Tyrone however they reverted to their conservative shell; they didn’t have a shot on goal; Murphy didn’t have a shot from play and it look c60 minutes before McFadden had a shot from play.

You can look at this from the glass half full perspective – they are expanding their game and can adapt their style. On the other hand they diced with a very dangerous team and relied on Tyrone’s bad shooting, rather than their own strenghts, to move forward.

From play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
Donegal 14 7 50% +0.85
Tyrone 17 7 41% -0.82
avg 20.5 9.2 44.9% 0.00

From deadballs

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
M Murphy (Donegal) 4 3 75% +0.08
C McFadden (Donegal) 2 2 100% +0.55
Joe McMahon (Tyrone) 3 2 67% +0.34
C Gormley (Tyrone) 1 1 100% +0.14
O Mulligan (Tyrone) 1 0 0% -0.40
M Penrose (Tyrone) 1 0 0% -0.51
P Harte (Tyrone) 1 0 0% -0.86
Sean O’Neill (Tyrone) 1 0 0% -0.86
team avgs 7.2 4.8 66.2% 0.00

Against Donegal you have to hit your deadballs. 3 from 8 wasn’t only poor but quite unexpected. Tyrone hit 7 from 9 (with an Expected Return of +0.71) against Armagh – repeat that here and they win.

Murphy & McFadden are some double act. The only miss in this game was a sideline – apart from that they’ve hit 16 deadballs from 19 over the three games with a combined Expected Return of +2.40

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
Stephen O’Neill (Tyrone) 6 2 33% -0.61
R Kavanagh (Donegal) 3 2 67% +0.70
Joe McMahon (Tyrone) 2 0 0% -1.08
M McHugh (Donegal) 2 1 50% +0.33
R Bradley (Donegal) 2 1 50% +0.17
C McFadden (Donegal) 2 1 50% +0.02
P McBrearty (Donegal) 2 1 50% +0.02
Mark Donnelly (Tyrone) 2 1 50% +0.01
M Penrose (Tyrone) 2 1 50% -0.08
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One Response to “Donegal V Tyrone”

  1. G Says:

    Enjoying the data driven analysis. Good job.

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