Down V Monaghan

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Return Vs Expected
Down 31 24 77% 15 63% +1.90
Monaghan 33 28 85% 14 50% -0.74
avg 38.5 27.6 71.7% 13.9 50.4% 0.00

Incredibly Down scored on their last 11 possessions to produce a scintillating comeback in Armagh on Sunday. The efficacy of their shooting is borne out by the fact that they had less ball inside the opposition’s 45m and less shots.

For all that it is Monaghan we would (should) be saluting if they had managed to even have a slightly below average return on their 2nd half shooting.

1st half

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Return Vs Expected
Down 10 8 80% 3 38% -1.61
Monaghan 21 17 81% 11 65% +2.55

2nd half

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Return Vs Expected
Down 21 16 76% 12 75% +3.51
Monaghan 12 11 92% 3 27% -3.29

In a game with no discernable game changer (red card, weather) the splits above are unprecedented. Some points to illustrate the differences
–>Down only had the ball inside Monaghan’s 45m line twice in the first 20 minutes (twice!!)
–>In that final 20 minute period, when Down scored 11 from 11, Monaghan missed with 7 shots – 4 of them inside the 21m line

Against Donegal/Tyrone Down will not be able to rely on such profligacy nor show such lethargy.

From play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
Down 14 6 43% -0.31
Monaghan 19 6 32% -2.10
avg 20.5 9.2 44.9% 0.00

From deadballs

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
D O’Hare (Down) 5 5 100% +1.32
A Carr (Down) 3 2 67% -0.20
A Rogers (Down) 1 1 100% +0.60
L Doyle (Down) 1 1 100% +0.49
P Finlay (Mon) 4 3 75 -0.42
C McManus (Mon) 3 3 100% +1.04
D Hughes (Mon) 2 2 100% +0.74
game avgs 7.2 4.8 66.2% 0.00

The one thing that Down were consistent at (as was Monaghan) was their deadball striking. 19 “scoreable” deadballs (i.e. deadballs that teams took a shot from) is quite high but that does include 2 frees from outside the 45m and a penalty. Still, whoever plays these two the next day out would do well to watch their tackling.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
C McManus (Mon) 4 2 50% +0.40
P Finlay (Mon) 4 2 50% +0.31
D Clerkin (Mon) 4 1 25% -0.55
K Hughes (Mon) 2 0 0% -0.89
J Turley (Mon) 2 0 0% -0.96
A Rogers (Down) 2 0 0% -1.18
C Laverty (Down) 2 2 100% +1.23
A Carr (Down) 2 1 50% +0.14
K Duffin (Down) 2 1 50% +0.07
D Hughes (Down) 2 0 0% -0.74

A bit of housekeeping. Now that we have a decent number of games from 2012 (11 in total) I have updated the averages to incorporate this. As pointed out previously the average number of possessions per team has dropped from 42 a game to 38.5 whilst the shot rate has increased. This drop in possessions is significant and could be attributable to teams either
(a) being more deliberate with the ball (think of Monaghan’s first 5 minutes on Sunday)
(b) teams becoming more direct and launching long balls into the full forward line. Less of these are likely to ‘stick’ leading to less possessions

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2 Responses to “Down V Monaghan”

  1. Action81.com » Tactics not Passion: Previewing Donegal vs. Down – Ulster Final Says:

    […] enter this game as favourites with good reason. Down have blown hot and cold in attack this season. When faced with physically intimidating opposition, such as Cork, […]

  2. Donegal v Down: where the Ulster SFC final will be won and lost | Irish Free Press Says:

    […] enter this game as favourites with good reason. Down have blown hot and cold in attack this season. When faced with physically intimidating opposition, such as Cork, […]

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