Armagh V Tyrone

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate Return Vs Expected
Armagh 37 29 78% 13 45% -2.22
Tyrone 33 28 85% 19 68% +4.33
avg 41.8 28.3 67.7% 14.1 49.8% 0.00

That’s an impressive line from Tyrone! Their possessions were quite low but what they did with them was wonderful.

To get the average number of shots off whilst having 9 less possessions (against the average) illustrates the innate footballing ability they have but also, to an extent, the game plan they play to. They have the confidence to be patient – to let the opportunity come to them. Then when the opportunity does come they are lethal.

The next best Success Rate we have in 2012, after Tyrone’s 68%, is Kerry’s 61% against Tipperaray when we showed they achieved this by shooting from in front of the posts (segments 5 & 8). Tyrone didn’t wait for such easy opportunities to open up. Although there is a high correlation between a high Success Rate & a high Expected Return if Tyrone were only popping over points from the 21m line they’d have a much lower Expected Return. They instead took the shot when the shot was on and scored more often than not – their decision making, aided by no little skill, was a joy to behold in this game.

As an aside there is definitley something afoot with how teams are using the ball compared to 2010. We are getting fewer possessions and higher shot rates. It might be a function of the 2012 data to date having a higher percentage of plays from “weaker” counties than the 2010 data. Teams who do not have the footballers to break the defensive curtain are shuffling the ball back and forward across the 45m line before pulling the trigger after running out of ideas. If this is the case it will work itself out over the coming weeks as we get more “big” games but it is definitley something to keep an eye on.

From play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
Armagh 21 7 33% -2.40
Tyrone 19 12 63% +3.62
avg 21.1 9.3 44.0% 0.00

From deadballs

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
B Mallon (Arm) 5 4 80% +0.39
J Clarke (Arm) 2 1 50% -0.45
A Forker (Arm) 1 1 100% +0.24
M Penrose (Tyr) 6 5 83% +0.48
O Mulligan (Tyr) 1 1 100% +0.14
Joe McMahon (Tyr) 1 1 100% +0.49
P Harte (Tyr) 1 0 0% -0.40
game avgs 7.3 4.8 66.5% 0.00

Again Tyrone’s shooting from play was exemplary. One has to wonder however if Armagh’s man marking, for all its entertainment value, was best served against this Tyrone team. When Tyrone face the likes of Donegal, Dublin or Kildare, who will pack the space in front of their goal with bodies, will that Success Rate hold up? If not they will have to up their volume of possessions to compensate for any slackening in the Success Rate.

Armagh had the chances, despite the red card, to win this game. They had as many shots as Tyrone but just didn’t execute. Watching the game you felt that Jamie Clarke was taking too much on hoping for wonder scores. The below table shows that he was just above average in his returns and it was, in fact, the Armagh supporting cast that let them down (23% Success Rate on 13 shots with an Expected Return of -2.68. Terrible.). Armagh need to develop shooters alongside Clarke (much like Donie Shine & Roscommon) to escape the qualifiers shark pool.

Players with >= 2 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
J Clarke (Arm) 8 4 50% +0.28
M Penrose (Tyr) 4 3 75% +1.11
Stephen O’Neill (Tyr) 4 2 50% +0.41
C Cavanagh (Tyr) 3 2 67% +0.68
G McPartland (Arm) 3 1 33% -0.23
P Harte (Tyr) 2 2 100% +1.11
K Dyas (Arm) 2 1 50% +0.10
P Duffy (Arm) 2 0 0% -0.83
C McCarron (Tyr) 2 0 0% -1.08

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