Cavan Vs Donegal

So finally to some game data.

Team Possessions Shots Shot Rate Scores Success Rate
Donegal 39 28 72% 17 61%
Cavan 41 26 63% 11 42%
avg 41.8 28.3 67.7% 14.1 49.8%

Nothing earth shattering there. The game was average in terms of the number of possessions both sides had but Donegal were better at converting the possession to shots and were also better in terms of accuracy. If we were able to make adjustments based on the team you were facing then maybe Cavan’s bare stats would look better (in that Donegal are generally accepted as being one of the better defensive teams) but we have to attribute their below par shot rate & success rate to Donegal’s ability to harry & hassle them once they entered the 45m zone.

The next two tables break the shots down by deadballs (45s, frees, penalties & sideline) & shots from play. We also introduce a new metric “Vs Expected”. This will be a blog entry on its own, expanding on how it is created, however essentially a return of 0.00 = exactly average or “as expected”. The more positive the return the better a team or player’s shooting was – the more negative the worse it was.

From play

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
Donegal 20 11 55% +3.32
Cavan 22 9 41% +0.28
avg 21.1 9.3 44.0% 0.00

From deadballs

Team Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
Donegal 8 6 75% +1.44
Cavan 4 2 50% -0.94
avg 7.3 4.8 66.5% 0.00

We associate blanket defence, and honesty of effort, with Donegal but against Kildare last year they showed that they could take some booming scores. Similarly against Cavan their shooting from play was well above average. McFadden scored the penalty and the 5 frees he took a shot from but missed the two 45s he had – in tight games they will need those and his deadball performance was hindered by this.

Cavan were essentially average (apart from Keating – see below) from play whilst their free taking was quite poor. Both McKiernan & Keating missed frees from inside the 45m.

Donegal had 13 different players take a shot from play whilst Cavan had 9 – this means that Cavan had 4 players take 3 or more shots to Donegal’s 1. These players are represented below however seeing as Donegal march on we must take note of McHugh (Vs Expected +1.22) & McLoone (+1.02) who scored with both their shots. McBrearty (-0.71) missed with both his.

Players with >= 3 shots from play

Shots Scores Success Rate Vs Expected
Keating (Cavan) 6 5 83% +2.69
Fitzpatrick (Cavan) 4 0 0% -0.60
Kavanagh (Donegal) 3 3 100% +1.55
Givney (Cavan) 3 2 670% +0.85
McKiernan (Cavan) 3 1 33% -0.35

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3 Responses to “Cavan Vs Donegal”

  1. Daragh Says:

    well done, we’re crying out for this sort of stuff. What I found interesting was that Cavan had more possessions than Donegal and just two less shots… are they possessions in the scoring zone? It obviously indicates that Donegal were more clinical but that Cavan had no shortage of opportunities. Best of luck with the blog anyway

    • dontfoul Says:

      Thanks for the kind words – hopefully we can dispel some closely held myths during the season

      A possession is defined as controlling the ball inside the opposition’s 45m line – so yes all Cavan’s possessions would be deemed to be in an attacking/scoring zone.

      As to why Cavan took fewer shots – the answer probably falls between a few stools
      (a) Donegal’s blanket defence forced then to shuffle the ball along the 45m line and no one stood up to take a shot
      (b) The balls into the full forward line were not sufficiently accurate. The Cavan forwards could get on the ball but not be in a position to shoot. Once they took a moment to assess the situation the swarm defence was on them leading to turnovers.
      (c) Cavan’s forwards were just, apart from Keating who had a superb outing, too ponderous/indecisive

      Keating was excellent (a performance that will soon be forgotten) when you compare him to the Galway forwards – the Roscommon V Galway game should be up soon

  2. Cavan V Armagh 2013 | dontfoul Says:

    […] >= 2 shots from play Eugene Keating had a bad day but he was stellar against Donegal last year (here). I think it is safe to assume that both he and Dunne will regress to the mean – if this does […]

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